Myanmar: Civil war in 2024 - early 2025

On February 19, 2024, based on our analysis, we estimated that in the most likely scenario the junta will lose territory and power within the upcoming months. In this scenario, however, the junta would maintain the power of the country. In addition we said that the humanitarian, economical, and political situation will deteriorate even further, and there are no signs of betterment of the situation - quite the opposite. In February we also estimated that it is possible for the junta to fall within the next six months.

Now, at the end of May 2024, this is exactly what is happening. Within the last few months, fighting between the junta and resistance forces has intensified, and the junta has lost territory and power. The resistance forces and armed anti-junta groups have continued and even intensified their offensives across Myanmar. They now control most of the border areas with China and India which have decreased the junta's ability to finance its war efforts. Overall, the junta’s territorial control as well as the grip of the nation is weakening.

However, we update our estimation related to Junta’s possible fall: three months ago we said it is possible within the next 6 months, now we estimate that it is very unlikely within the upcoming three months, and unlikely in 2024 overall. Even so, it is likely that the junta will lose more of its territorial control. Russia and China will continue their military aid to the junta.

Related to external support, we repeat what we said three months ago: The junta is supported by China and Russia just enough to keep the junta in Power. China / Russia interests have more to do with the fact that opposing forces have partners in the western world than actually supporting junta as a strategic interest. At the same time, western world's acute focus is on Europe and the Middle East, and there are not enough capabilities to support or even pay close attention to the situation in Myanmar. The west most likely hopes that ASEAN would be the main asset in resolving the situation since ASEAN has more at stake because of the geographical facts.

Scenarios for the ongoing war in 2024 - early 2025

Likely: The junta will survive and the war continues

In this scenario the junta survives and maintains its capabilities to continue the fight. However, it is very likely that even with survival, the junta will most likely lose even more its territorial control. The survival is made possible mostly because of the very likely continuation of support from Russia and China.

One major factor for the benefit of junta is that it still controls the main seaports which allows it to import supplies by the sea. The other fact that keeps things relatively equal is the junta’s air superiority. However, this air superiority is very much dependent on the external supplies.

For this scenario to be true, neither the junta nor resistance forces make significant territorial gains. This is important since the junta’s survival does not endure negative cumulative developments. From the junta’s perspective the aid from China is more important than ever, and if that support decreases or stops, this scenario would become a lot more unlikely. Overall, within this scenario the humanitarian and economical situation will continue to deteriorate.

Overall in our estimations we expect this scenario to become more unlikely when moving forward in 2025.

Unlikely: Collapse of the junta

In this scenario the resistance forces will make rapid and impactful territorial gains which will set in motion the collapse of the junta. Within this scenario we can’t exclude the possibility of an internal coup against Min Aung Hlaing.

For this scenario to be true the resistance forces would get some state capitals as well as the military's regional command centers under its control. At the same time, the overall dissatisfaction within the army would increase, and there would be reports about senior military officials leaving Myanmar. The main factor for the situation’s development is the quantity and quality of external aid to the junta, especially from China and Russia. If there would be some sort of decrease, or even halt in the level of support, would this scenario become more likely.

Overall in our estimations we expect this scenario to become more likely when moving forward in 2025.

Very unlikely: Peace agreement between the junta and resistance forces

In this scenario there will be a negotiated peace agreement between the junta and resistance forces. However, for this scenario to become reality, there are multiple things that should happen which are highly unlikely as of now. One of these things is the capabilities of ASEAN to have truly constructive involvement in the crisis. The other major factor is the distance between the interests - not just between the junta and resistance forces but also within those different armed anti-junta groups.

As of now, it is even more likely that the junta would be forced to have real negotiations but because of the overall complex situation and wide range of different interest groups, real and somewhat lasting peace is almost impossible in 2024, and very unlikely even when moving forward in 2025.