On the NATOVET Radar Monthly (December 2022)

Focus Point: The security of Europe

Brussels Playbook: City of spies by politico

01.12.2022  

EUROPE’S SPY PROBLEM: Brussels is full of spies — but it’s difficult to catch them, our colleague Barbara Moens reports in a must-read story this morning. That’s because of the number of covers they have, the sparse funding for counter-intelligence compared to countries such as Russia and China, and mistrust between EU allies, which prevents them from pooling resources to form a bloc-wide counterintelligence agency.

By the numbers: Brussels has some 26,000 registered diplomats, according to the Belgian foreign affairs ministry — and “each one a possible spy,” Barbara writes. But the truth is, nobody really knows just how many spooks are operating in the EU capital.

Part of the problem: There’s no EU intelligence agency, or even an umbrella organization to coordinate the bloc’s 27 national spy services — unlike, say, for national police forces, where Europol plays a coordinating role. Some have called for Europe to create its answer to the CIA — a single body coordinating the bloc’s espionage efforts — but that’s a distant possibility.

EU-level coordination is unlikely to happen anytime soon, said a Belgian official who is often in touch with the intelligence agencies. “It’s simply too sensitive,” the official said, with EU governments reluctant to share information.

AND SPEAKING OF BEIJING’S UNDERCOVER AGENTS: MEPs and national parliamentarians have sent a letter to European Council chief Charles Michel, warning about China’s use of undercover police stations in EU countries, and urging him to share information from national investigations into those stations. politico

Read here the cross-party letter of Members of European Parliament and the EU Member States’ national parliaments (10) to European Council chief Charles Michel concerning the illegal Chinese police stations

Focus Point: European Council President Michel's visit to China

Remarks by President Charles Michel following the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by consilium.europa.eu

01.12.2022 The EU promotes its interests and its values in the world. I have come to Beijing to engage in a candid, in-depth, and face-to-face dialogue with China’s leadership.

Today, we know that the world faces multiple crises. The war in Ukraine, the energy and food crises, and the slow-down of the global economy. On top of climate change and global health. These global issues require dialogue and action. We need to discuss where we can work better together, but also to discuss and manage our differences. I believe in the power of dialogue.

Both the EU and China have an interest in a rules-based world with the UN Charter at its core.

We had the occasion to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine. China is a global player and a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council. We all share the responsibility to work for peace and for the respect of the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter. I urged President Xi — as we did at our EU-China Summit in April — to use his influence on Russia to respect the UN charter. President Xi and I agreed that nuclear threats are not acceptable and highly dangerous, and endanger the international community.

I also raised the issue of human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rights of minorities. Human rights are universal. I welcome the readiness to resume the EU-China Human Rights Dialogue.

We also discussed Taiwan. The EU is committed to and maintains its One China Policy. I repeated the longstanding position of the EU on Taiwan and the Taiwan strait. The EU has a strong interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait: 40% of our trade passes through it. It is important to promote stability and prosperity in East Asia. We also discussed the situation in the DPRK and Myanmar.

But I also set out the difficulties faced by EU companies and investors. We need greater reciprocity, we need a more balanced relationship with no overdependencies, a real level-playing field for our companies. We need to strike the right balance. A shift into ‘self-reliance’ carries dangers not only for China and the EU but also for the world. We believe in free trade, in cooperation; but we need balance and fairness. We believe that trade and investment must be governed by rules, by a reformed World Trade Organization. consilium.europa.eu

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition

EU academia accepts Chinese money in return for know-how by euractiv

01.12.2022 China provides EU scientists with money in return for the outcomes of their research, experts focusing on Chinese influence in Europe warn, highlighting the risks associated with handing over dual civil-military technologies that could be used to modernise Beijing’s military or suppress human rights. 

According to a new study published by the Association for International Affairs, the EU lacks a coherent approach to protecting science and research from Chinese espionage.

Thanks to the funding of individual researchers in European countries, China can easily obtain sensitive data and knowledge of technologies which might be useful also in the military sector.

“I think any cooperation with Chinese universities should be accompanied by a global assessment of the risks for national security concerns because obviously, they are there,” Dutch MEP Bart Groothuis (Renew) and member of the Industry, Research and Energy committee told EURACTIV.com.

According to an expert on China, Olivier Afiron, a screening mechanism at the EU level should be established to tackle Chinese espionage in the research and development sector. euractiv

Focus Point: Semiconductors

EU countries reach common position on the Chips Act by euractiv

01.12.2022 European ministers endorsed a mandate to initiate interinstitutional negotiations on the Chips Act during the Telecom Council meeting on Thursday (1 December).

The legislation is part of a broader EU effort to scale up Europe’s semiconductor capacity and introduce a mechanism to anticipate and manage supply crises. Chips are small but fundamental components for all electronic devices.

A global shortage has disrupted in the last years the manufacturing of various products, from PlayStations to cars, prompting the European Commission to present this proposal. The text adopted by the EU Council, and brokered by the Czech Presidency, introduced some significant changes.

Semiconductors are highly sophisticated technologies extremely lengthy and capital-intensive to develop. Therefore, this complex supply chain is characterised by a solid concentration of production capacity in Far-East Asia and design expertise in the United States.

To address these ‘strategic dependencies’, the Chips Act establishes a legal framework defining the conditions under which public funding can be provided to finance new facilities in Europe, the so-called mega fabs, by introducing the ‘first-of-a-kind’ concept. euractiv

Focus Point: The security of Europe

China Operating Illegal Police Stations Worldwide by gatestoneinstitute

02.12.2022 China has set up at least 54 overseas police stations in 30 countries, including in the United States (New York), Canada, Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Argentina and Nigeria, according to a recent report from Safeguard Defenders, a human rights NGO.

The police stations are part of China's campaign to "persuade" Chinese citizens suspected of criminal acts – particularly telecommunications fraud, but also political "crimes" such as political dissent – to return to China to face criminal prosecution. China not only threatens the Chinese citizens themselves but also members of their families who have stayed behind in China. Such threats have been continuing for years, as FBI Director Christopher Wray pointed out in 2020, when he mentioned a case from the US in which a Chinese government "emissary" visited a target in the US and told him that he could choose between returning to China or committing suicide.

Crucially, the police stations operate without the consent and knowledge of the host countries, such as in the Netherlands, where one of the police stations operates out of a plain ground-floor apartment in Rotterdam belonging to a small Chinese handyman business.

Safeguard Defenders has appealed to countries to take swift action against the Chinese police stations.

"We call on Members of Parliament to raise this issue with their Governments: ask if and how this practice is being monitored; to what extent such operations take place in their country, and what measures are being formulated to counter them. Action needs also be taken to protect a quickly growing Chinese diaspora in the target countries, unless the latter are content with having a foreign government police minority groups on their territory, often to the intentional detriment of the target country and its policies, and aimed at intimidating the diaspora into obedience to the CCP anywhere in the world. Dedicated reporting and protection mechanisms must urgently be made available." gatestoneinstitute

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition

EU-U.S.: Consultations between the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and European External Action Service Secretary General Stefano Sannino by eeas.europa.eu

02.12.2022 On December 1 and 2, 2022, United States Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and European External Action Service Secretary General Stefano Sannino met in Washington, D.C. to further reinforce the EU-U.S. strategic partnership including through the fourth high-level meeting of the U.S.-EU Dialogue on China and the third meeting of the U.S.-EU High-Level Consultations on the Indo-Pacific.

On December 1, the fourth high-level meeting of the U.S.-EU Dialogue on China.

- Both the Secretary General and Deputy Secretary reiterated that they remain open to substantive engagements with China on areas of shared interest, from the environment and climate to health and food security. They also emphasized the importance of economic diversification and resilient supply chains. They reaffirmed particular concern about and opposition to China’s recent and ongoing economic coercion of international economies and committed to deepen efforts to identify and mitigate vulnerabilities.

- The Secretary General and Deputy Secretary discussed shared efforts to press China to urge Russia to end its war of choice in Ukraine. They reiterated their call not to circumvent or undermine sanctions against Russia, and not to provide any form of support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. They reaffirmed that such support would have consequences for our respective relationships with China.

- On Taiwan, they underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait where the United States and EU have clear interests, including in the maintenance of stability, and where regional and global security and prosperity are at stake. They expressed concern about China’s provocations that increase the risk of crisis in the Strait, which would not only undermine peace and stability across the Strait, but also have serious impacts on the broader region and jeopardize global prosperity. They reiterated their commitment to maintaining the status quo and opposition to any unilateral actions which undermine it. They called for the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues and reaffirmed that there is no change in their long-standing basic positions on Taiwan, including their respective one China policies.

On December 2, 2022, the third high-level Consultations on the Indo-Pacific.

- They reviewed their work together and with partners in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific, based on the rule of law and the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms. They expressed their support for strengthening cooperation with partners in the region based on these values and multilateral rules-based frameworks.

- They noted the growing challenges facing the Indo-Pacific countries in terms of foreign information manipulation and interference and committed to supporting free and resilient media environments in the region.

- The Secretary General and Deputy Secretary noted India’s important regional and global role and looked forward to partnering with India to address pressing international challenges as it assumes the G20 Presidency for 2023.

- They committed to further pursue their coordination and complementary work for regional maritime security, including conducting a joint U.S.-EU naval exercise in the first half of 2023 and pursuing joint capacity-building efforts in the maritime domain to support freedom of navigation and other internationally lawful uses of the sea in the Indo-Pacific. eeas.europa.eu

Focus Point: NATO Members-Turkiye-A must read report

The Turkish connection: How Erdoğan’s confidant helped Iran finance terror by politico.eu

08.12.2022 On March 22 of 2021, several of the world’s most dangerous men descended on Beirut’s historic seaside Summerland Hotel — not to swim in the Mediterranean or explore the sumptuous resort’s “Le Beach Pop Up,” but to talk Turkey. 

The meeting was a secret one, between a delegation of senior Iranian military and government officials and a business group from Turkey led by a confidant of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Both sides were keen to deepen their partnership smuggling Iranian oil to buyers in China and Russia to raise funds for Tehran’s terror proxies, according to Western diplomats.

The case offers a window into the complicated dynamic between Iran, Turkey and the unique and influential role Erdoğan plays in the region as he oscillates from self-interested powerbroker to would-be mediator between the West, Russia and the Middle East, creating dependencies that often leave the United States and other allies with little choice but to let him have his way.

With the help of ASB, Tehran’s regime has circumvented U.S. sanctions to funnel about $1 billion to its terror proxies since 2020, according to Western diplomats and documents detailing his company’s dealings reviewed by POLITICO. The primary beneficiary of the oil sales is the Quds Force, which uses the money to pay mercenaries and fund groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and EU, the diplomats said. 

 “Sitki Ayan serves currently as the head of Quds Force’s largest financial network in Turkey and possibly the entire world,” one of the officials said. 

While it’s not clear whether Erdoğan was aware of the extent of his friend Ayan’s engagement with the Iranians, Western diplomats say it’s difficult to believe he could not have been, considering the nature of his business dealings and the involvement of high ranking Iranians. 

On May 25, the U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on several individuals involved in what it called an “international oil smuggling and money laundering network,” including Monzavi (Ghasemi was already on the sanctions list). A number of the companies in the scheme were also designated, included China’s Haokun and ConceptoScreen of Lebanon as well as several actors and companies working through Russia. 

Despite several further rounds of sanctions since May against others involved in Iran’s underground oil business, the one name conspicuously not on the list belongs to a man who helped Iran sell more oil than anyone — Sıtkı Ayan

The reality is, the U.S. needs Turkish support on multiple fronts, especially in the Black Sea amid the war in Ukraine. Turkey is also blocking the NATO membership applications of Sweden and Finland, demanding concessions from both countries, including the lifting of a Finnish arms embargo against Ankara. What’s more, when provoked, Erdoğan has shown his willingness to strike back, by sending refugees across the border into Greece, for example. politico.eu

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition

US Army makes largest helicopter award in 40 years by defensenews

05.12.2022 Textron’s Bell has won the U.S. Army’s competition to build the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft, the service’s largest helicopter procurement decision in 40 years.

The deal for the next-generation helicopter is worth up to $1.3 billion and is set to replace roughly 2,000 Black Hawk utility helicopters. FLRAA will not serve as a one-for-one replacement for existing aircraft, but it will take over the roles of the Black Hawk, long the workhorse of the Army for getting troops to and around the battlefield around 2030.

Ultimately, the Army’s Future Vertical Lift pursuits will also replace around 1,200 Apache attack helicopters among other legacy aircraft through the pursuit of FLRAA, the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft and Air-Launched Effects working in advanced teaming formations.

The service wants FLRAA to be capable of traveling roughly 2,440 nautical miles (or 2,810 miles) without refueling, but also to be agile enough to maneuver troops into dangerous hot spots.

The engineering and manufacturing development and low-rate production phase could be worth roughly $7 billion. If the “full complement” of aircraft are purchased across the entire life of the fleet, the program could be worth in the range of $70 billion to include potential foreign military sales, the Army’s program executive officer for aviation, Maj. Gen. Rob Barrie, said during a Dec. 5 media roundtable. defensenews

Focus Point: NATO Members-Polland

Is Poland becoming more authoritarian by euronews

08.12.2022  Alarms are being sounded over creeping authoritarianism in Poland.

A damning report published in November said the country's democracy was faltering and that key institutions were "severely backsliding".

This means the government has eroded some of the fundamental rights and freedoms that underpin Poland's political system, according to the report's authors, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA).

Almost immediately after getting into power, Przybylski claims PiS began imitating the political strategies of Viktor Orban, Hungary’s nationalist leader.

“There is a direct line between Budapest and Poland where governments speak to each other … and actually coordinate their policies quite closely … there is an awfully intensive relationship overall,” he says.

“What we have in Poland is Budapest solutions being copied and pasted into Warsaw.”

‘Polish society is very vibrant, visible and vocal’

The perception of creeping authoritarianism in Poland has resulted in a large number of demonstrations and resistance from civil society groups and opposition politicians.

“There is a very well-organised opposition that has a completely different type of discourse from the government and really opposes its movements”, says Alberto Fernández of IDEA. “Ironically, parts of Poland’s democracy are very vibrant and there is a democratic movement that is actually very difficult to find in other EU countries."Poland also has a large independent media landscape that offers alternative views to the government. Fighting in Ukraine has altered the picture significantly, diverting attention beyond Poland’s borders.

“The war in Ukraine has repositioned Poland … and helped realign the country slightly towards a more friendly situation with the European authorities,” says Fernández. “That may change things in the long term”.

Bordering Ukraine, Poland has borne the brunt of the fallout from Russia’s invasion, with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians seeking safety inside its borders.

For Przybylski, this humanitarian situation is stopping the government and civil society from “pushing against each other as much.” “It's a ceasefire, maybe,” he adds. euronews

Focus Point: Semiconductors

Chip War: Why semiconductors run the world by bailliegifford

December 2022 “As I got deeper into the research and I realised the risk of the chip industry today, I did get more and more nervous and uncomfortable as I went on,” Miller says. “There’s a complicated interplay between our growing reliance on Taiwan, the increase of US-China geopolitical competition, the shift in semiconductor supply chains and the crucial role of chips produced in Taiwan to the future of the US and Chinese militaries. It all left me deeply worried that it could go horribly wrong... for the entire world.”

China, the US and the European Union are all trying to become more self-sufficient in chips to mitigate that risk. But Miller warns that this is an unrealistic goal for any country. It’s simply too expensive. “The reality is that the chip industry is defined by massive economies of scale at different parts of the supply chain. There’s a huge incentive to have concentration." bailliegifford

Russia-Ukraine War: Sanctions

EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil by euractive

02.12.2022 European Union governments tentatively agreed on Thursday (1 December) on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil – an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations – with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price, according to diplomats.

EU countries have wrangled for days over the details of the price cap, which aims to slash Russia’s income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on 5 December.

It will allow countries to continue importing Russian crude oil using Western insurance and maritime services as long as they do not pay more per barrel than the agreed limit.

An EU document seen by Reuters showed the price cap would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how the scheme is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result. euractive

Focus Point: The Western Balkans

Western Balkan Focus: China by politico.eu

30.11.2022 The EU faced a near boycott the last time it tried to gather Western Balkan countries in Brussels, when three leaders, led by Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, threatened not to come. This time, mindful of the Russian and Chinese influence in the region, Brussels — and the 27 leaders — went to Albania for a summit.

China’s activity in the region is a growing concern for the EU, our Chief Brussels Correspondent Suzanne Lynch reports from Tirana. In recent years, Beijing has made inroads in the Western Balkans under its massive Belt and Road investment program, offering an attractive alternative to countries tired of waiting to join the EU.

Evidence of China’s deep pockets is scattered around the Western Balkans. Montenegro is struggling to repay a Chinese loan it took out in 2014 to help finance a controversial highway project that remains unfinished — a telling symbol of the trade-offs involved in Chinese investment. In Serbia, China Rail International (CRI) and the China Communications Construction Company began work on the €1 billion Belgrade-Budapest railway last year, while China’s Hesteel Group acquired Serbian iron producer Železara Smederevo in 2016.

In total, the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) estimates that China has been involved in 136 major regional projects, amounting to over €32 billion between 2009 and 2021.

 “China is playing the long game,” said Goran Buldioski, who follows Beijing’s influence in the region as director of programs for Open Society–Europe and Central Asia. “They bring not only money and investment, but also a lot of challenges when it comes to negotiations with the EU.” politico.eu

Focus Point: Books

Top 10 Books: The International Affairs Christmas reading list by medium

07.12.2022 The Holidays are upon us with the promise of just enough relaxing time to enjoy a good book (or two!). Here are our top 10 books reviewed in International Affairs in 2022, hand-picked by book reviews editor Mariana Vieira. This selection brings together a variety of themes, from nuclear non-proliferation to violent conflict and the foundations of the international liberal order, and spans several regions, from Latin America and Europe, to western and south Asia. Any of the options below will offer an absorbing discussion, guaranteed to drown out the inescapable sound of Mariah Carey and Wham that are poised to take over our lives in the weeks to come. Help yourself!

1.    Banning the bomb, smashing the patriarchy Written by Ray Acheson. Published in Lanham, MD by Rowman & Littlefield.

2.    The seventh member state Written by Megan Brown. Published in Cambridge, MA and London by Harvard University Press.

3.    The Condor trials Written by Francesca Lessa. Published in New Haven, CT by Yale University Press.

4.    Decolonizing politics Written by Robbie Shilliam. Published in Cambridge by Polity Press.

5.    The invention of the international order Written by Glenda Sluga. Published in Princeton, NJ by Princeton University Press.

6.    The Bin Laden papers Written by Nelly Lahoud. Published in New Haven, CT by Yale University Press.

7.    Show time Written by Lee Ann Fujii and edited by Martha Finnemore. Published in Ithica, NY by Cornell University Press.

8.    Qatar and the Gulf crisis Written by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. Published in London by Hurst.

9.    High-risk feminism in Colombia Written by Julia Margaret Zulver. Published in New Brunswick, NJ by Rutgers University Press.

The politics of Rights of Nature Written by Craig M. Kauffman and Pamela L. Martin and published in Cambridge, MA by MIT Press. medium 

Focus Point: Defence Budgets- Si vis pacem, para bellum!

European defence spending surpasses €200 billion for first time by eda.europa.eu

08.12.2022 The European Defence Agency (EDA) has today published its annual Defence Data report for 2020-2021, detailing defence spending by the 26 EDA Member States. In 2021, total European defence spending stood at a new high of €214 billion, marking a further 6% increase on 2020 and the seventh year of consecutive growth. EDA’s report finds that Member States are investing more than ever on the procurement of defence equipment and research and development with a 16% rise compared to 2020, totalling a record €52 billion.

RECORD EUROPEAN DEFENCE EXPENDITURE & INVESTMENT

At €214 billion, total defence expenditure corresponds to 1.5% of the 26 EDA Member States’ gross domestic product (GDP), the same as recorded in 2020. The 6% rise in spending compared to 2020, marks the strongest yearly growth rate since the rebound started in 2015 following the financial crisis. Compared to the historic low reached in 2014, defence expenditure has increased by almost €52 billion, or 32% in real terms. eda.europa.eu

U.S. House overwhelmingly approves bill backing record military spending by Reuters

08.12.2022 The U.S. House of Representatives backed legislation on Thursday paving the way for the defense budget to hit a record $858 billion next year, $45 billion more than proposed by President Joe Biden.

The House passed the compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, an annual must-pass bill setting policy for the Pentagon, by 350-80, far exceeding the two-thirds majority required to pass the legislation and send it for a vote in the Senate.

The fiscal 2023 NDAA authorizes $858 billion in military spending and includes a 4.6% pay increase for the troops, funding for purchases of weapons, ships and aircraft; and support for Taiwan as it faces aggression from China and Ukraine as it fights an invasion by Russia. It provides Ukraine at least $800 million in additional security assistance next year and includes a range of provisions to strengthen Taiwan amid tensions with China. Reuters

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition

Stoltenberg warns business world on China by euractiv

09.12.2022 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s comment on Chine from the annual conference Norway’s Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO, Næringslivets Hovedorganisasjon) in Oslo on January 5,2022.

“Free trade cannot trump freedom, and commercial considerations cannot trump considerations for our country's security,” Stoltenberg told VG on Thursday, adding that the war in Ukraine highlighted Europe’s vulnerability in that regard.

Norwegian and world business should not make themselves vulnerable by becoming too dependent on trade with China, warned NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday, referencing Europe’s “mistake” of relying heavily on Russian gas.

Stoltenberg, who is also the former Norwegian prime minister, has been invited to Norway’s Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO, Næringslivets Hovedorganisasjon), a major annual conference in Oslo on 5 January, where he will discuss how to trade with authoritarian countries can threaten the security of countries and companies.

“We must not repeat that mistake towards China,” he said, warning against “dependence on goods such as rare minerals, or that they are allowed to control infrastructure such as the 5G network, or that we share technology that undermines our own security.” 

Stoltenberg, however, insisted that he did not want to isolate China economically, but instead called for more “overall considerations when you engage economically with authoritarian countries such as China and Russia,” adding that not doing business with China would be “wrong”. euractiv

Focus Point: The Western Balkans

EU, NATO condemn attacks on police in north Kosovo as tensions soar by euractiv

11.12.2022 The EU and NATO condemned renewed tensions in northern Kosovo on Sunday (11 December) after unknown attackers exchanged gunfire with the police and threw a stun grenade at the EU’s law enforcers during the night.

Hundreds of Kosovo Serbs, outraged over the arrest of a former police officer, gathered again early in the morning at the roadblocks erected on Saturday, which paralyse traffic on two border crossings from Kosovo towards Serbia.

Kosovo, populated mostly by ethnic Albanians, declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but Belgrade does not recognise it and has consistently encouraged the Serb majority in northern Kosovo to defy Pristina’s authority.

Hours after the barricades went up, police said they had suffered three successive firearm attacks on Saturday night on one of the roads leading to the border.

“The police units, in self-defence, were forced to respond with firearms to the criminal persons and groups, who were repelled and left in an unknown direction,” the Kosovo police said in a statement.

EU police deployed in the region as part of the rule of law mission, EULEX, said they were also targeted with a stun grenade but no officers were injured.

“This attack, as well as the attacks on Kosovo police officers, are unacceptable,” EULEX said in a statement.

“[The] EU will not tolerate attacks on @EULEXKosovo or use of violent, criminal acts in the north. Barricades must be removed immediately by groups of Kosovo Serbs. Calm must be restored,” the bloc’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on Sunday. euractiv

Russia-Ukraine War: The Crime of Aggression

Approaching RUS-UKR War as a Crime of Aggression by NATO Veterans Initiative

12.12.2022  “Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, announced on November 30, 2022, an EU proposal to set up a court, backed by the United Nations, to investigate and prosecute Putin for the crime of aggression. However, it’s far from certain that senior Russian leaders will be brought to justice under international law.” Source: How War Crimes and the Crime of Aggression Are Being Pursued Against Russia - Bloomberg

 “Except in the case of UN Security Council referrals, non-ICC member states are excluded from the Court’s jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, regardless of victim or aggressor status. The crime of aggression against Ukraine cannot be considered by the court, since neither Ukraine nor Russia has ratified either the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court or special amendments to it.” Source: Crime of Aggression | Coalition for the International Criminal Court (coalitionfortheicc.org)

NATOVET Focus Question:

Considering all, the larger question remains: Although with good intentions, does this have the potential to push a neurotic dictator to the very edge and cause him to over-react and trigger a dooms day scenario? Time will tell… NATO Veterans Initiative

Focus Point: Qatargate

The Brief — EU democracy’s rotten fruits by euractiv

12.12. 2022 There is no doubt that the European Parliament has a laissez-faire attitude toward family businesses built around MEPs. For example, there is no safeguard against a family member setting up an NGO or an association which would raise funds from an interested party in exchange for lobbying services by the respective MEP.

In any case, if an offence were committed, it would hardly stand in court without a smoking gun. As we have seen, money changes hands in bags, not via bank transfers, and there is no paper trail.

The European Parliament now has the daunting task of guaranteeing that Qatargate remains the exception and not the rule according to which MEPs work.

But let us not forget that this is not the first time MEPs have been bought by states with less-than-stellar reputations. The Azerbaijan Laundromat saw EU politicians from Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe paid off in return for glowing reports.

Enforcing safeguards is necessary to make it much more difficult for corruptors, be they from the Gulf states, Central Asia, Russia, China, or big corporations, to buy the MEPs we have voted for. I have personally voted for the Belgian socialists, and now I feel betrayed.

It would have been worse had this scandal erupted ahead of the European elections. There is still time until September 2024 to transform the current crisis into an opportunity to restore confidence in the work of MEPs. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola has a mammoth mission to accomplish. euractiv

Focus Point: The Western Balkans

North Kosovo attacks intensify, Belgrade asks NATO to send in military by euractiv

13.12.2022 Local elections were supposed to be held in Kosovo’s northern Serb-majority municipalities on 18 December. The election in Northern Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Zvecan and Leposavic was due after ethnic Serb representatives left their posts in November to protest a Kosovo government decided to require all Kosovo citizens to have nationally issued license plates. This would impact some 10,000 ethnic Serbs who still use plates from the former Yugoslavia and refuse to recognise Kosovo’s independence.

President Vjosa Osmani announced that due to the rising tensions, they would be postponed until April 2023.

“We discussed about the most suitable date and suitable time, and in the end, with full consensus, after my proposal, we came to the conclusion that it should be postponed to April 2023,” she said.

Serbian President Aleksander Vucic annouced he would request permission from KFOR, the NATO-led international peacekeeping force, to send the Serbian army and police into Kosovo.

“We agreed today on the text to send a request to the commander of KFOR, by Resolution 1244, to ensure the deployment of members of the Serbian army and police in the territory of Kosovo, and the government’s decision on this matter will it is taken on Monday or Tuesday”, he said.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 states that “after the withdrawal, an agreed number of Yugoslav and Serb military and police personnel will be permitted to return to Kosovo” to perform some functions.” These include liaising with the international civil and security presence, clearing minefields, having a presence at Serb patrimonial sites and critical border crossings.”

Sources within the Kosovo government told EURACTIV that Belgrade’s interpretation of Resolution 1244 does not allow the return of military during periods of unrest and is, therefore, untenable. euractiv

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition- A must read

Why it's harder than ever to chase autocrats from power by euobserver

13.12.2022 Since the authorities are spending billions on advanced technology for propaganda, infiltration and intimidation, they quickly outwit protesters by penetrating or sabotaging their networks.

It is not just governments in Poland and Hungary that have spied on opponents using Pegasus software, but even Greece and Spain — although the latter stubbornly deny it. According to Erica Chenowth, one of the Harvard professors involved in the street-protest study, we are currently living in an age of "digital authoritarianism".

In the old days of military dictatorship, the most successful street protests were massive and prolonged. This is no longer true — look at Iran.

If you want modern dictators gone, it is not enough anymore to get the army and intelligence services on your side but you must also tear down their "popular" power base. As we see daily in Hungary, this is not an easy task.

Apart from a good and consistent political narrative, this requires as much stamina, organisational skill and patience as the autocrat possessed himself when he started his slow ascendance to the top. euobserver

 Focus Point: Migration

Amnesty International says Spain, Morocco used ‘unlawful force’ in Melilla incident by euractive

14.12.2022  Moroccan and Spanish security forces used “unlawful force” and failed to provide sufficient medical assistance after migrants stormed the border fence between Morocco and Spain’s north-African enclave of Melilla in June, according to an Amnesty International report published Tuesday.

The report, like others before it, contests the official version of events, saying that at least 37 sub-Saharan Africans, rather than the officially reported 23, died that day – though the number could be even far higher and amount to 77.

On those who were wounded in the incident, the report also points to the many more who were wounded, compared to official reports, and that authorities did not provide enough medical assistance to the wounded.

At the press conference, Esteban Beltrán, the director of Amnesty International-Spain, also criticised the Spanish government as it “seems to have tried to cover up the facts”. It has not yet initiated an own-initiative inquiry, collaborates “reluctantly” with the Public Prosecutor’s Office, “has exonerated” the security forces, and lied, he added.

The report also denounces the “widespread use of unlawful force by Moroccan and Spanish security forces”, even after migrants were in police hands. Along with this “unlawful” use of force, neither the Moroccan nor the Spanish police guaranteed emergency medical attention to the wounded, who were left “in the sun for eight hours without being given basic first aid”, the organisation added. euractive

Focus Point: NATO- A must read

Change and Continuity- December 2003 by Lord Robertson released by NATO

14.12.2022 The answer is that NATO will succeed because it has no alternative.

More recently, historians told us that alliances between free nations do not survive the disappearance of the threat that brought them together. NATO disproved that argument. The Warsaw Pact disintegrated but NATO retooled. It retooled first to help spread security and stability Eastwards across Europe, then to use its unique multinational military capabilities to bring peace to Europe's bloody and chaotic Balkan backyard, and now to confront the new threats of our post-9/11 world.

How, for example, will an Alliance created to defend Cold War Europe fare beyond the Hindu Kush? The answer is that NATO will succeed because it has no alternative. All of its members understand and agree that if we do not go to Afghanistan, and succeed in Afghanistan, Afghanistan and its problems will come to us. Worse still, we would have to deal with the terrorists, the refugees and the drug traffickers with a much weaker international security structure because NATO would have been severely damaged and the concept of multinational security cooperation, whether in NATO, the European Union, the United Nations or coalitions, would have been dealt an equally heavy blow.

 I saw what the terrorists could do in the rubble of the Twin Towers and then how NATO could retool to help defeat them. I saw Alliance troops bringing hope to the streets of Kabul, a continent and a half away from the old Iron Curtain. Most of all, I have seen a transformed Alliance doing what it has done best since 1949: delivering safety and security where it matters and when it matters. This is a simple message that everyone should understand and welcome. NATO

Focus Point: Defence Budgets- Si vis pacem, para bellum!

NATO agrees 2023 budgets, reflecting higher ambitions for the new security reality by NATO

14.12.2022 Allies agreed NATO’s civil and military budgets for 2023 at a meeting of the North Atlantic Council on Wednesday (14 December 2022). The civil budget is set at €370.8 million, and the military budget is set at €1.96 billion, representing a 27.8% and 25.8% increase, respectively, over 2022.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “I strongly welcome the agreement of NATO’s civil and military budgets for 2023. This is a concrete expression of the higher level of ambition set by Allied Heads of State and Government at our transformative Madrid Summit in June. We must continue to invest more and better together in NATO. Only North America and Europe, working together in a strong NATO, can keep our one billion people safe in a more dangerous world."

The civil budget provides funds for personnel, operating costs, and programme expenditures of NATO’s Headquarters and its International Staff. The military budget covers the operating costs of NATO Command Structure headquarters, missions, and operations around the world. NATO’s third principal common funded element is the NATO Security Investment Programme (NSIP), which covers major construction and command and control system investments. The 2023 ceiling for the NSIP is €1 billion, representing a 26.6% increase over 2022. NATO

Focus Point: Russia

The Fall of Russia by  Institut Montaigne

14.12.2022 In Serheii Plokhi's pithy formulation - one that mimics Lord Ismay's famous quip about NATO - the Soviet Union ensured to keep "the Ukrainians in, the Poles out, and the Russians down". Today, Putin's neo-imperial project is collapsing. Not only has he failed to unify the Russian world (russki mir), but his closest neighbors, thanks to the war, now seem to want to emancipate themselves.

In the best-case scenario for him, Vladimir Putin would manage to present his very likely defeat in Ukraine as a "win". Isn't this what Khrushchev did after the Cuban crisis, or autocrats such as Saddam Hussein, the latter presenting his pitiful withdrawal from Kuwait as such? Nevertheless, he will have a hard time convincing Russian public opinion that experienced a decade of brainwashing but is not totally apathetic. 

Let us propose three (near-)certainties and four scenarios. First certainty: Russia in the mid-2020s will be a country undermined by military, economic (sanctions) and demographic weakening (more than 500,000 people have already left the country). Second certainty: the country is separating from Europe. Ukraine was the "western side" of the Russian body, balancing its "eastern side". The third certainty is that after the war, Russia will enter a troubled period. We know the history of the country: military debacles are often followed by political upheavals, as we saw in 1905, 1917 or 1989.

As for the scenarios, the least unfavorable one would be that of Germany after 1945. After the Götterdämmerung, the Stunde Null of which ensued shock and trauma, then followed by introspection and healing. But Russia does not have the rule of law tradition (even with interruptions) that Germany had at the time. Not to mention that it will be difficult to put it through a Nuremberg. And the country will not be placed under the protection of a benevolent protector.

More likely, then, is the North Korean scenario: the isolation and radicalization of a fortress-Russia, in which Putin or his successors would keep the country's population in a permanent state of war.

A step further in the pessimism scale, Russia would become (for those who are most worried) a kind of Mordor ("black country"), a desolate land in which the forces of evil are preparing their revenge and reconquest of Middle Earth.

The Somalian scenario would also be that of the breakup of the Russian nation-empire. If the "vertical of power" built by Putin were destroyed, how could one imagine the maintenance of a state thirty times larger and ten times more populated? Institut Montaigne

Focus Point: The Western Balkans- A Must read

EU must seize the geopolitical moment in the Balkans by Politico

14.12.2022 Credible accession prospect is vital to keep Putin, China at bay in Southeastern Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has finally awakened the European Union to the strategic importance of the Western Balkans and the potential for Moscow to exploit unresolved disputes in the region to undermine the West.

EU leaders must now seize the geopolitical moment to revamp the integration of the six small, economically fragile countries with a total population of fewer than 18 million into the Union, or risk seeing them used by Russia and China in their power games.

If the EU continues to keep them at arm’s length, the alternatives could be closer alignment with Russia, the emergence of an illiberal, non-aligned zone that could stretch from Hungary to Turkey, or — worse still — a downward spiral into fresh armed conflict, involving a toxic mixture of organized crime and weaponized migration.

Moscow is trying to fan pan-Slavic Orthodox nationalism and exploit divisions wherever it can. It has lent support to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in his threats to secede from Bosnia and has spread disinformation to amplify Kosovo Serbs’ hostility to the Pristina government.

China, for its part, has mostly pursued economic investments, using the 14+1 framework under its Belt and Road Initiative to engage with local leaders looking for ambitious infrastructure and defense projects. It follows Russia’s lead on the Western Balkans in the UN Security Council and uses its financial muscle to dissuade Balkan states from backing critical resolutions on human rights violations in Xinjiang or Hong Kong.

Serbian pro-government media relay the Russian narrative about the war in Ukraine, and Russian-owned media contribute to anti-Kosovo war hysteria. Russia and China have both contributed to Serbia’s rearmament. Moscow also has a powerful energy lever since Serbia gets 80 percent of its gas from Russia while Bosnia is 100 percent dependent. Partly as a result, Serbia has refused to align with EU sanctions against Russia, causing irritation in Brussels.

So, what should the EU do now? Politico

Focus Point: The Great Power Competition

Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition by RAND

15.12.2022 The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. Drawing on extensive research on the economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions of U.S. strategic competition with these countries, RAND researchers assembled high-level findings and recommendations to support immediate policy decisions to ensure the U.S. competitive advantage. In the process, they developed a framework for assessing a competition between major powers in four dimensions: (1) overall context for the competition, (2) national power and competitiveness, (3) international position and influence, and (4) shape and standing of bilateral contests. This guide to understanding and succeeding in the new era of strategic competition brings together historical lessons and the latest data on global alliances, economic interdependencies, technological and military advantages, national interests, and more, highlighting broad sets of priorities for U.S. policy and investment. RAND

Focus Point: Qatargate

How to restore the European Parliament's reputation by euobserver

16.12. 2022 One of the many striking features of this very striking scandal is the fact that it was the Belgian police — working on this case for months according to themselves — who spotted what was arguably hiding in plain sight. The great gift of hindsight is now putting two and two together.

In fairness to parliament, it is now, even if belatedly, acknowledging the porous nature of its anti-corruption system.

Exposed to the glaring sun of global scrutiny, proposals are now coming in thick and fast as to how to ensure the transparency and accountability of the work of MEPs, the vast majority of whom do indeed work ethically and with the public interest at heart.

Previous attempts at reform have been met by internal inertia, and often with the justification that MEPs' freedom of electoral mandate must not be undermined.

This highly corrosive scandal has—or must—sweep those barriers aside.

The fundamental problem is that the parliament is self-policing. When rules are not followed, there are few, if any, consequences.

The code of conduct for MEPs, for example, is monitored by a committee of MEPs with limited powers and the ultimate decision on whether or not to act rests with the parliament's president. European Parliament president Roberta Metsola pledged to leave no stone unturned in dealing with the scandal.

The greatest service the parliament could do for itself, for its reputation, and to restore the damaged trust among the public, is to live up to this promise by taking strong, concrete, and lasting action. Other institutions should also take note and avoid the temptation to think it has nothing to do with them. euobserver

Russia-Ukraine War: Negotiations?

Forget negotiations. Officials see Ukraine war stretching for months — or years by Politico

16.12.2022  Don’t expect negotiations between Ukraine and Russia anytime soon — in fact, they might be years away.

As Ukrainians face a difficult winter, speculation is rife about whether major capitals could ultimately press for talks between Kyiv and Moscow. Stubbornly high energy prices, dwindling weapons stockpiles and a soporific economy have all fueled chatter that some of Ukraine’s allies may lean on the country to at least open a dialogue with the enemy.

The reality, however, is that none of it may matter for a while. According to current and former officials, Ukraine and Russia appear headed toward a potential stalemate, with neither side seeing an advantage to opening up end-stage talks.

The reasons are manifold: Russian President Vladimir Putin is in too deep to change course — doing so might even mean his ouster. A steady supply of Western arms is also ensuring motivated Ukrainians can keep fighting.

“My guess is the most likely scenario is a murky one where the conflict will end in some kind of stalemate or even frozen conflict,” said one senior European diplomat. “I doubt,” the diplomat added, that “there will be a clear ‘win’ for either side.”

Meanwhile, neither side currently has the resources for a quick win, but both see opportunities to gain ground in the coming months. Many argue Ukraine, with its current allied support, could still come out victorious — though much depends on how a “win” would ultimately be defined.

…

Definitions aside, the long-term reality is, of course, that talks eventually have to take place — whether when both sides are exhausted in several years, or sooner if the battlefield lines change unexpectedly.

“At the end, peace is never done on the battlefield,” said Schallenberg, the Austrian foreign minister.

“It’s done,” he stressed, “at the negotiation table.” Politico

Focus Point: Cyber Security

Cyber Security Landscape in 2022 by NATO Veterans Initiative

20.12.2022 The European Union (EU) Agency for Cyber Security (ENISA) publishes an annual report about the cyber threat landscape. The most recent one was released in November 2022 and covered the period between July 2021 to July 2022. This was the tenth edition and once again ENISA provided a comprehensive overview of major cyber threats that created risks and damages to public and private organizations across the globe (considering primarily the proximity of a cyber threat with respect to the EU territory)

The ENISA report considers the following four threat actors: “State-sponsored actors, cybercrime actors, hacker-for-hire actors, and hacktivists.”[3] In the reporting period, "ransomware" ranked first in the list of cyber threats followed by other prominent threat types such as malware, social engineering, threat against data, threat against availability (denial of service and internet threats), disinformation/misinformation and supply chain attacks. NATO Veterans Initiative

Focus Point: Cyber Policy

Top 5 Cyber Policy Articles to read for 2023 by directionsblog.eu

21.12.2022 The past year has been a busy one for cyber and digital diplomacy. Discussions by the UN Ad Hoc Committee on Cybercrime and the UN Open-ended Working Group on responsible state behaviour in cyberspace have advanced global debate on these issues and have included much more participation from the Global South. However, decisions about the participation of non-governmental stakeholders left a bitter taste in some mouths. The war in Ukraine has foregrounded old and new questions about the role of cyber operations in conflict, as well as the suitability of existing tools and mechanisms to deal with malicious actors in cyberspace. Below, five of our Directions Blog contributing editors recommend their essential reads of 2022. directionsblog.eu

Focus Point: China-EU relations- China Perspective

Building confidence to advance China-EU cooperation by  euobserver

21.12.2022 On the early morning of 10 December, I stepped off the Hainan Airlines flight and set foot in Brussels in the brisk midwinter. I am no stranger to this city. During previous visits to EU headquarters on matters related to arms control and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, I had the chance to know many EU colleagues and established good working relations with them. I was told that it is by advocating diversity, inclusion, dialogue and compromise that the EU has witnessed the steady development of European integration. I sincerely hope that these principles can find their expression in my future work.

Despite the cold weather in Europe, I am still excited about beginning my new role as the 15th Chinese ambassador to the EU, a bloc of the most advanced economies and a pioneer in regional integration. Representing China and its interests, my mission here is to act as a bridge that enhances understanding and mutual trust and facilitates practical cooperation between China and the EU, including its member states.

The moment I got off the plane, I saw the sun rising on the horizon. As people often say in China, confidence is more precious than gold. I'm ready to translate my confidence into real action and join EU colleagues in implementing the agreements reached between President Xi Jinping and President Charles Michel to ensure the steady and sustained development of China-EU relations. The Chinese Mission to the EU and I look forward to reaching out to EU partners and interlocutors from all sectors with an open heart and open arms. We hope to increase communication, expand practical cooperation and build a bridge of friendship and cooperation between China and the EU. euobserver

Focus Point: Nuclear Fusion

Nuclear fusion: The one relationship Russia and the West just can’t break by politico

21.12.2022 Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has ripped apart Moscow's ties with the EU and the U.S. on everything from energy to trade to travel — but there's one partnership they can't escape.

Tucked away in a quiet sun-soaked corner of southern France, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) — an effort to harness the power of nuclear fusion to unleash vast amounts of clean energy — continues to purr along with the participation of Russian scientists and Russian technology.

Earlier this month, scientists at ITER hailed a major breakthrough announced by the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, which said it had overcome a major barrier — producing more energy from a fusion experiment than was put in. politico

Focus Point: The European Security

Yearbook of European Security 2022 by iss.europa

21.12. 2022 The 2022 Yearbook of European Security provides an overview of events in 2021 that were significant for European security. The book charts major developments in the EU’s external action and security and defence policy.

Divided into region and issue-specific sections, this Yearbook contains entries on the EU’s multilateral efforts and work in security and defence, as well as specific geographical sections on North Africa and the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas.

The section on security and defence provides comprehensive information about EU defence tools such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) initiative, and an overview of security issues such as space, cybersecurity, terrorism, border management, hybrid threats and more.

To enrich the reading experience, the document contains references to key EU texts, various EUISS analytical publications, an index and informative infographics. iss.europa

Focus Point: Cybersecurity

Top 10 Cybersecurity Trends You Need To Keep An Eye On In 2023 by antidos

21.12.2022 Cybersecurity is a fast-evolving arena. Cyber Criminals keep coming up with new techniques and tools to infiltrate the most secure systems while cybersecurity professionals are working hard to prevent that. Both are trying to outdo one another which leads to use of new tactics from both sides. These speed up the pace of evolution of the cybersecurity industry as a whole.

In order to keep pace with the ever-changing cybersecurity landscape, you need to be fully aware of the latest cybersecurity trends as well as older cybersecurity trends. Wondering how the cybersecurity industry will evolve in 2023? Which cybersecurity trends will take off and which ones will die down? You are at the right place. In this article, you will learn about the top 10 cybersecurity trends that will dominate in 2023.

   State-Sponsored Cyber Warfare

   Data Governance and Privacy Regulations

   Adoption of Cybersecurity Network Architecture

   Access Management Takes Center Stage

   Cybersecurity Will Impact Your Revenue

   Cloud and Mobile Will Feel the Heat

   Operational Technology Is the New Target

   Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

   Ransomware Is Still a Big Threat

   Sophisticated Social Engineering Attacks antidos

Russia-Ukraine War: China

China says it’s ‘on the side of peace’ over war in Ukraine by politico

23.12.2022 Beijing has “always stood on the side of peace and on the side of the U.N. Charter” when it comes to “the Ukraine issue,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken in a call overnight, according to Beijing’s readout of the discussion.

China “stands on the side of the international community in persuading peace and promoting talks. It will continue to play a constructive role in its own way to defuse the crisis,” the readout added.

Russia’s fully fledged invasion of Ukraine last February is becoming a sensitive point in Sino-Russian relations.

After initially stating it supported Moscow’s “sovereignty and security” last June, China President Xi Jinping recently warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine during an exchange with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, then on a state visit to China.

Xi also asked Germany and Europe to “play an important part in calling for peace and facilitating negotiations.”

In September, Putin himself acknowledged that Beijing had expressed “questions” and “concerns” over the war in Ukraine, following his meeting with Xi during a multilateral summit in Uzbekistan. politico

Focus Point: Cybersecurity

China spyware fears for department by Senator James Paterson

24.12.2022 The (Australia) National Disability Insurance Agency is about to replace its head office security surveillance system out of security concerns about China-linked devices, and Liberal senator James Paterson is urging all government departments to follow suit and immediately "rip them out".

The United States and the United Kingdom have restricted the sale and use of equipment from Hikvision and Dahua, along with several other Chinese companies, on national security grounds. The British government has told its departments to stop installing such devices at sensitive buildings.

Earlier this month, Dahua cameras were identified in the security system at the Home Affairs headquarters in the Parliamentary Triangle. Senator Paterson cites intelligence experts who say the devices could be used as spyware even when users think they are turned off.

Senator Paterson wants them gone.

"These companies are subject to China's national intelligence law which compels them to share information with Chinese intelligence agencies and are actively involved in the surveillance and repression of persecuted ethnic minorities including Uyghurs in Xinjiang," he said.

Questions asking about China-linked surveillance devices at departments such as Defence, Health, Climate Change, Veterans Affairs, Treasury and Prime Minister and Cabinet have not yet been answered.

It comes after three top federal government agencies were marked as having "not fully effective" cyber security arrangements by the Australian National Audit Office.

The Foreign Affairs Department, along with the Australian Taxation Office and the Australian Federal Police all scored dismally on cyber security management, despite a renewed focus on beefing up digital protections in the wake of a string of high-profile cyber attacks. Senator James Paterson

Russia-Ukraine War: Negotiations?

Ukraine war: Russia 'ready to negotiate' claims Vladimir Putin by euronews

25.12.2022  Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview aired on Sunday.

Russia's 24 February invasion of Ukraine has triggered the most deadly conflict in Europe since World War Two and the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

There is, thus far, little end in sight to the war.

The Kremlin says it will fight until all its aims are achieved while Kyiv says it will not rest until every Russian soldier is ejected from all of its territory, including Crimea which Russia annexed in 2014.

"We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them - we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are," Putin told Rossiya 1 state television in the interview. euronews

Focus Point: The Western Balkans

Serbian army shifts to ‘combat readiness’ amid growing Kosovo tensions by politico

27.12.2022 The Serbian army has been placed at its “highest level of combat readiness” the country’s Defense Minister Miloš Vučević announced Monday night, in a sign of escalating tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.

The announcement follows unverified claims from Serbian state media that Kosovar police forces opened fire while trying to tear down a barricade erected by ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo. Authorities in Kosovo denied the incident took place.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said he will “take all measures to protect our people and preserve Serbia.” politico 

EU, US, NATO urge dialogue to ease tensions at Serbia-Kosovo border by euractiv

28.12.2022 The situation in the north of Kosovo has deteriorated in the last month over the planned ban on Serbia-issued license plates, the mass resignation of ethnic Serbs from Kosovo institutions, planned elections to replace them, and the arrest of a Serb policeman over allegations he attacked central electoral commission premises.

Serbs have been erecting barricades on key roads in the Serb-majority north of Kosovo, leading to the closure of three border crossings.

NATO’s KFOR said on Wednesday said it supported dialogue between all parties to defuse tensions in the north of the country.

“It is paramount that all involved avoid any rhetoric or actions that can cause tensions and escalate the situation,” KFOR’s General Angelo Michele Ristuccia said in a statement.

“Solutions should be sought through dialogue,” he added. euractiv

Russia stoking Serbia-Kosovo tensions to distract from Ukraine, Pristina says by politico

29.12.2022 The Kremlin is stoking Serbia-Kosovo tensions to distract from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, First Deputy Prime Minister of Kosovo Besnik Bislimi told a British radio program on Wednesday.

“There is a tendency of Russia to deviate or distract the focus from Ukraine by opening new country’s zones,” Bislimi told Times Radio.

Bislimi told Times Radio on Wednesday: “There is recorded evidence that people in the paramilitary are being supported by the Humanitarian Centre, a Russian center. So I think nobody is denying the presence of Russia and the influence of Russia.”

“And if you want more details, to understand how easily Russia can use this for conflicts, the recent attacks of these troops in Kosovo, started during night, most probably heavily drunk people inside barricades because they’re being supplied with a lot of alcohol, financial incentives, and all of this from the Humanitarian Centre.” politico

Focus Point: NATO

Germany takes the lead for NATO’s high readiness force by NATO

28.12.2022 On Sunday (1 January 2023), Germany takes the lead of NATO's highest-readiness military force, placing thousands of troops on standby and ready to deploy within days.

NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) was created in 2014 at the core of a strengthened NATO Response Force, following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and crises in the Middle East. Germany takes over from France, which led the force in 2022. In response to Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February this year, NATO deployed elements of the VJTF to Romania on the unit's first ever collective-defence mission.

The VJTF is the highest-readiness element of NATO's Response Force. VJTF leadership and membership rotate annually among Allies. In 2023, VJTF land forces will comprise around 11,500 thousand troops, with the Panzergrenadierbrigade 37 at its core. In total, nine NATO Allies (Belgium, Czechia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia) will contribute. Among the major units are Germany’s Panzerbataillon 393, Artillerielehrbataillon 345, Versorgungsbataillon 131 and Transporthubschrauberregiment 30. For the first time, Germany also leads the VJTF’s designated Special Forces command. NATO

Focus Point: The EU

Brexual healing? EU and Britain dream of a fresh start in 2023 by politico

29.12.2022 Three tortuous years after Britain left the EU, hopes are rising on both sides of the English Channel that 2023 will prove a transformative year for the U.K.-EU relationship.

Officials in London and in Brussels acknowledge an urgent need to heal the wounds of Brexit and start to smooth over cracks in the relationship that could be exploited by hostile states.

Relations between the two sides have been under a perennial cloud following Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June 2016 and the subsequent political turbulence in London. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the departure of Boris Johnson as U.K. prime minister six months later, have shifted the dynamic, creating both an imperative for closer working — on issues such as energy, defense and security — and the political headroom for a fresh start. politico

Focus Point: Archive Collections

Archive Collections by  International Affairs-Oxford Academics

30.12.2022 International Affairs has been publishing leading research on international relations for 100 years. These archive collections bring together voices from across the past century to explore issues that continue to impact our lives. From Britain’s role in the world, to empire and decolonization, the edited collections draw on our extensive archive while demonstrating how thinking on international relations has changed over time. During our centenary year we created 6️ Archive Collections along with fantastic editors. They cover...

UK foreign policy

War and conflict

China

Refugees

Empire and decolonization

Women in IA. International Affairs-Oxford Academics

Focus Point: NATO

Deterence: What it can (and cannot) do by NATO

December 2022 The last article that we are republishing as part of 70 Years of NATO Review was written by consistent and long-time NATO Review author, Michael Ruhle, in April 2015. While that might not seem like very long ago, this piece is evidence of just how much has changed in the last eight-or-so years. In the 2000s and early 2010s, deterrence had become a dormant concept, all but cast aside at the end of the Cold War to make space for countering new challenges and enlarging the Alliance. In 2014, following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, deterrence was pulled out and dusted off to take centre stage as one of NATO’s traditional core tasks and the backbone to Article 5. Russian aggression in Ukraine highlighted the necessity of ensuring that NATO’s deterrence and defence posture was and would remain credible and effective. NATO

Thank you very much for your reading.