On the NATOVET Radar Weekly 11-17 November 2022
Focus Point: The Western Balkans
LEAK: Franco-German plan to resolve the Kosovo-Serbia dispute
09.11.2022 Following the brutal Kosovo war between 1998-1999, and Pristina’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, with US and EU backing, the relationship between the two states has remained strained. Attempts under the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue have yielded little tangible progress since its launch in 2011.
Since September, rumours have swirled that a new framework has been drafted by recently appointed envoys to the region from Paris and Berlin, indicating a new will to tackle one of the crucial issues in the region, whose six countries have set their sights on EU membership.
Officials in Belgrade and Pristina confirmed the existence of a new German-French proposal for a deal on Kosovo’s final status but disagreed about what the document actually says.
A push to get the deal signed by the end of the year has come from all sides, including France, Germany, and the US, which has dropped multiple hints over the last weeks. Meanwhile, EU officials pledged their support for their agreement at the Berlin Process Summit last week.
Western Balkan Six leaders signed three agreements under the Berlin Process on Thursday (3 November), sending positive signals ahead of a crucial Western Balkan summit set to take place in Albania in December. euractiv
Focus Point: Migration
Brussels steps in as Italy and France fight over migrant boats
11.11.2022 Officials in Brussels are drawing up an emergency plan to resolve escalating tensions between EU countries over how to cope with asylum seekers rescued at sea, European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas told POLITICO.
The Commission is calling for an extraordinary meeting of home affairs ministers to discuss the crisis and consider the next steps in the action plan, Schinas said in an interview. The intervention from the EU’s executive arm comes amid an escalating dispute between Italy and France over taking in migrants, with new Italian leader Giorgia Meloni accusing Paris on Friday of betrayal.
The extraordinary meeting of interior ministers would have to be called by the Czech Republic, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council. politico
Focus Point: The Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia
Setting the G20 agenda for food security: Experts and policymakers gather in Bali to find solutions to an urgent challenge
13.11.2022 Hunger and malnutrition often destroy silently. They stunt the development of the young and steal health, energy, and productivity from all ages. They also rob of the future as families look no further than their next meal. These depredations produce starvation and other types of disruption within communities and occasionally explode outward in the form of political instability and violence.
Few issues are more critical to both local and global stability than food security. Energy markets, supply chains, trade and transportation networks, and international finance shape the production, movement, price, and consumption of food. Turmoil in any one of these domains can unsettle the others. This year, for example, Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the export of grain and affected food security in countries as far away as Indonesia.
This weekend, on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia, leaders from government, industry, and civil society came together to discuss these and other pressing global issues at the Atlantic Council’s first Global Food Security Forum. atlanticcouncil
Russia-Ukraine War: Putin
Agent of chaos: How to read Putin’s lies, U-turns and retreats
13.11.2022 For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has bundled U-turns and lies together, making it hard to distinguish between evasion and fiction, and weaponizing the toxic mix to blackmail, divide and bewilder his foes.
In recent days, Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal, then gone back into it, and issued bloodcurdling threats of nuclear attack before reversing course to endorse the language of non-proliferation. This week, Putin ordered his forces to retreat from Kherson only weeks after declaring that the city would be part of Russia “forever.”
How should the world interpret Putin’s wildly contradictory statements, actions and signals? And when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons, does Russia’s most recent rejection provide any reassurance at all? politico
Focus Point: NATO Members-Turkiye
Turkey faces removal from the Council of Europe
10.11.2022 Nebahat Akkoc says her life began afresh after the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2000 that she had suffered torture while in Turkish custody, emboldening her and others to carry on their fight for women’s rights.
Now she fears Turks could lose such protections as Turkey faces removal from the Council of Europe (CoE), a leading human rights body, after it failed to implement a 2019 court ruling to release jailed businessman and philanthropist Osman Kavala.
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The CoE’s Committee of Ministers has launched infringement proceedings against Ankara that have so far stressed dialogue but could eventually see Turkey’s removal or its membership suspended, experts say. Asked about potential measures, a CoE spokesperson said it was for the Committee to decide on steps and their timing.
ECHR data shows it delivered 3,820 judgments regarding Turkey between 1959 and 2021, of which 3,385 included at least one rights violation – the highest of any country. Turkey has the largest population among the 46 member states and signed the Convention before many of them.
It is the second time that proceedings have been launched against a member state. In the previous instance, Azerbaijan eventually executed a ruling.
While the consequences are not outlined, experts say Turkey should not be removed as that would deprive 85 million citizens of a mechanism that has provided restitution for thousands. euractiv
Focus Point: The Western Balkans
The Western Balkans and EU-NATO Cooperation: How to Counter Foreign Interference and Disinformation?
07.11.2022 On 7 October 2021, the Slovenian Presidency of the Council of the EU, the Slovenian Ministry of Defence and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) co-organised an online conference to address disinformation and foreign interferences in the Western Balkans region.
The event covered two main issues. First, it sought to better understand how disinformation campaigns and foreign interference functions in the region. Second, it dedicated time to analysing what more the EU and NATO could do together to counter such harmful practices. Over 120 participants from Member States and EU institutions registered for the conference, and the meeting took place a day after the EU-Western Balkans Summit, held in Brdo on 6 October.
The event welcomed a number of high-level speakers from the Centre for European Perspective, the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, the European External Action Service, the European Parliament, the NATO Centre of Excellence for Strategic Communication, the Regional Cooperation Council and the Slovenian Ministry of Defence. The conference began with a keynote speech from State Secretary Uroš Lampret from the Slovenian Ministry of Defence, and the event closed with remarks by Uroš Zorko, Defence Policy Director at the Slovenian Ministry of Defence.
Read the Report iss.europa.eu
Focus Point: The Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia
Xi Biden meeting: US leader promises 'no new Cold War' with China
15.11.2022 US President Joe Biden has promised there will be no "new Cold War" with China, following a conciliatory meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also said he did not believe China would invade Taiwan. It was the first in-person meeting between the two superpower leaders since Mr Biden took office.
The pair also discussed North Korea and Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the talks in Bali, a day before the G20 summit on the Indonesian island.
Both said they opposed the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Mr Xi, who has been urged to talk down Vladimir Putin, reiterated China's calls for peace while adding there was "no simple solution to a complex problem".
Mr Biden said in his press conference "it's difficult to say that I'm certain that China could control North Korea". But he also told Mr Xi that China had "an obligation" to dissuade Pyongyang from engaging in another nuclear weapons test.
Taiwan was a major focus during their three-hour meeting at a luxury hotel shortly after Mr Xi's arrival. BBC
Focus Point: The Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia
G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration
16.11.2022 This year, we have also witnessed the war in Ukraine further adversely impact the global economy. There was a discussion on the issue. We reiterated our national positions as expressed in other fora, including the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, which, in Resolution No. ES-11/1 dated 2 March 2022, as adopted by majority vote (141 votes for, 5 against, 35 abstentions, 12 absent) deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine. Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks. There were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions. Recognizing that the G20 is not the forum to resolve security issues, we acknowledge that security issues can have significant consequences for the global economy. Whitehouse
Russia-Ukraine War: Poland
Poland, NATO say missile that killed two likely fired by Ukraine defending against Russian attack
08.11.2022 The leaders of Poland and NATO said the missile that killed two people in Polish territory on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending their country against a barrage of Russian strikes, and that the incident appeared to be an accident.
The blast occurred outside the village outside the rural eastern Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west from the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, roughly the same time as Russia launched its biggest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month.
The incident comes after Russia unleashed a barrage of 85 missiles on Ukraine Tuesday, predominantly targeting energy infrastructure. The bombardment caused city blackouts and knocked out power to 10 million people nationwide. Power has since been restored to eight million consumers, Zelensky later confirmed. CNN
Thank you very much for your reading.