Neck and neck

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown! I'm Washington reporter Steff Chávez. Today let’s talk about:

• Harris’s polling gains
• Democratic VP chatter
• Falling confidence in democracy

In just over a week, Kamala Harris has nearly caught up to Donald Trump in the polls.

They are now neck and neck nationally, according to an FT analysis of polling data, after Harris all but erased the 3 percentage point lead Trump had over Biden before the president dropped out of the race. [Free to read]

Trump was polling at 46.8 per cent, with Harris at 46.5 per cent as of Sunday.

With the candidates virtually level, money is even more important to their campaigns as they vie for votes in battleground states. They’ve already launched a rival ad war, which will be pricey.

Harris has committed $50mn for ads between now and the Democratic National Convention on August 19. Her first commercial, called “Fearless” centred on Harris the prosecutor — who “put murderers and abusers behind bars” — and hit at Trump for his close ties to big business.

Trump’s new $12mn ad campaign attacks Harris over immigration — her biggest political weakness. The FT’s election ad tracker has been updated to incorporate Harris’s media buys, which continue to focus on swing states. In the six key battleground states, Harris has a 1 to 3-point improvement over Biden.

Chart showing that Harris has improved upon Biden’s recent polling in battleground states, but remains behind where he was in 2020

The vice-president has also made gains across most demographic groups since Biden bowed out, with more support from Black and Latino voters, as well as young women and independents. Only voters over age 50 are less likely to back her than Biden.

Harris will soon announce her running mate — will her VP be able to sustain the Democrats’ momentum? 

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Trump questioned Harris’s racial identity at a conference for Black journalists where he was heckled and booed by attendees, underscoring his uphill battle to woo Black voters.
• With one of their own at the top of the Democratic ticket, influential lawyers are piling in to support Harris. [Free to read]
• The United Auto Workers, one of the country’s most politically significant unions, has endorsed Harris.
• US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has said an interest rate cut is on the table for September, which would be welcome news for Harris.
• This is how Trump’s Maga world is pivoting to take on its new opponent. (The New Yorker)
• The director of conservative Project 2025 has stepped down after Trump distanced himself from the policy framework to overhaul the federal government.

Behind the scenes

As more than 10,000 people packed into an Atlanta arena on Tuesday to see Harris, enthusiasm for the vice-president was palpable, the FT’s Lauren Fedor reported from the rally.

There was an extra buzz about who she’ll choose as her running mate....Register for the FT to keep reading the newsletter for free.