Turning up the heat

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. I’m Emily Goldberg, the FT’s US newsletter editor. Today we’re covering:

• The politics of Trump’s indictment
• Which way will Michigan go?
• A shift among young voters

During the six weeks of Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial, Joe Biden was largely mum on the matter. But now that Trump is officially a convicted criminal, the Biden camp is turning up the heat [free to read].

The president’s re-election campaign on Saturday called Trump a “convicted felon” who would “destroy our justice system, shred our democracy, rig our economy for their billionaire donors, and attack the very idea of America”.

The shift in strategy comes as some Democrats are urging the president to be even more aggressive following Thursday’s verdict. “Sometimes Democrats get so precious, so afraid to get their hands dirty or afraid to anger Trump’s supporters . . . our party misses the opportunity,” Christy Setzer, a Democratic strategist, told the FT’s James Politi. “Let’s not do that here, on a story that has the power to fundamentally change the trajectory of the race, and history.”

Ten per cent of Republican voters and 25 per cent of independent voters were less likely to vote for Trump due to the verdict, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted after the conviction.

Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for Trump, rejected the idea that there had been any big effect on the former president’s electability. “We told our donors and supporters that our polling in these target states was indicating that most all of the trial impact was ‘baked in the cake’ and that we expected marginal impact from an adverse ruling,” he said in a memo distributed by the Trump campaign on Saturday.

We’ll have more tea leaves to read from as more polling comes in over the next few weeks.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Joe Biden is set to issue an order today that would tighten immigration, as he confronts one of his biggest political weaknesses. [Free to read]
• Spending on healthcare, which has helped prop up a strong US jobs market, could be vulnerable if Trump is re-elected, according to analysts.
• Hunter Biden appeared in court yesterday on gun charges for the first trial of a sitting US president’s son. Here’s a helpful primer on the trial. (FT, Politico)
• Trump and the Republican National Committee raised $141mn in May, more than double April’s total, according to the campaign. (Bloomberg)
• Trump’s first public appearance after his conviction was at an Ultimate Fighting Championship match, where his hypermasculine appeal was on full display. (NYT)

Behind the scenes

When Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016 it was the first time a Republican took the state since 1988. With the former president maintaining a slight polling lead in the Great Lake State, will it go red again in 2024?

The FT’s Claire Jones recently travelled to Michigan to find out what voters there are thinking. . . . Register for the FT to keep reading the newsletter for free.