Paolo Banchero Scouting Report

By: Layth Dahman

Name: Paolo Banchero

Draft Position: Drafted 1st overall by the Orlando Magic

Age: 19 years old

Height: 6 feet 10 inches

Weight: 250 pounds

Position: Forward/Big

Future Projection: Superstar, best player in the draft, All-NBA potential, most well-rounded offensive player in the draft, first or second option on a championship team, best scorer in the draft, best passing big in the draft, and potential top-15 player in the league.

2021-2022 College Player Stats:

Minutes Per Game: 33

Points Per Game: 17.2

Field-Goal Percentage: 47.8

3-Point Percentage: 33.8

Free-Throw Percentage: 72.9

Assists Per Game: 3.2

Rebounds Per Game: 7.8

Turnovers Per Game: 2.4

Steals Per Game: 1.1

Blocks Per Game: 0.9

Skills That Will Translate to the NBA:

Banchero is able to be an isolation scorer making him a high-level effective half-court scorer. He is a three-level scorer and can create his own shot from inside, mid-range, and three-point range. He is a tough shot maker, and his size allows him to make tough contested shots by shooting over smaller defenders. He is also able to create separation from defenders with his step-back and side-step jump shot when operating in the mid-range and three-point range. When attacking the rim as an isolation scorer he plays more with finesse since he lacks quickness on straight-line drives making it hard for him to blow by defenders. He is a crafty finisher around the rim and has great footwork. He is able to spin off defenders by using his size and strength to get high percentage uncontested shots inside. His ability to change his finishing hand, finishing with either hand when driving to the rim, and using his frame to shield defenders makes it hard for opponents to contest his layups. 20 percent of Banchero’s offense comes from isolations. Banchero shoots 44.3 percent from the field and has a score percentage of 41.3 percent. His ability to score in many different ways on isolations gives Banchero a high upside as a go-to-scorer. Banchero has shown flashes of playing at his own pace and with poise. When matched against physical defenders, he rushes shots and plays with less poise resulting in a tough off-balance shot.  An adjustment that Banchero has to make at the next level to become a more efficient, consistent, and effective isolation scorer is to use his size and strength to attack the rim against physical defenders instead of settling for tough off-balance shots. He will not be able to get and take advantage of mismatches as often at the NBA level compared to the college level. Banchero is also able to hit turnaround jumpers over smaller defenders when operating in isolation. He has tremendous footwork and touch on his shot when attempting turnaround jumpers.

Banchero uses his size and strength to get deep post positioning and score in the post. He has great footwork, strength, finesse, and poise in the post allowing him to step through defenders. He is able to use his explosiveness and quickness to spin off defenders and get a high percentage finish at the rim. He is also able to absorb contact and get to the free-throw line at a high level. He is physical and doesn't shy away from contact. When operating in the post, Banchero has a high free throw rate of 21.9 percent. In the post, Banchero attempts turnaround jumpers and face-up jumpers. He is able to operate from both the right side and left side. On the right side, he is shooting 41.7 percent from the field and has a score percentage of 46.8 percent. On the left side, he is shooting 50 percent from the field and has a score percentage of 47.7 percent. Even though post-ups have gone down in the NBA, this is a skillset Banchero will be able to utilize at the next level when the game slows down.

In transition Banchero is dynamic. He is able to operate as the leak-out man and as the ball-handler. As the ball-handler, he has speed and a tight handle for his size allowing him to push the pace and outrun opponents in transition. He is aggressive driving to the rim and always looks to attack the rim in transition rather than settling for pull-up jump shots off the dribble from mid-range and three-point range. He is a crafty finisher around the rim with his ability to change his finishing hand, change direction, and finish with both hands around the rim. His craftiness in transition as a ball-handler allows him to finish through traffic and crowds in the paint. He is also an athletic finisher in transition and is able to play above the rim. When attacking the rim as a ball-handler in transition he is able to use his strength to finish through contact. At times, Banchero needs to slow down the pace as a ball-handler. His turnover percentage as a ball-handler in transition is at 28 percent. His turnovers result from being over-aggressive in pushing the pace, leading to the defender getting in position to draw a charge or offensive foul. Banchero on leak-outs fills lanes well as the leak-out man. He is able to outrun opponents in transition using his speed, leading to high percentage uncontested shots at the rim. His ability to finish with both hands makes him efficient finishing from both the right-wing and left-wing as a leak-out man. On the right side, Banchero has an efficient field goal percentage of 55.6 percent, and on the left side he has an efficient field goal percentage of 50 percent. He ranks in the 74th percentile on the left-wing and 69th percentile on the right-wing. Banchero is also able to make catch and shoot pull-up three-pointers in transition at the top of the wings and in the corners. When attempting catch and shoot three-pointers he has a quick release and good shooting mechanics. In transition, he has an effective field goal percentage of 62.1 percent which means he can attempt and make catch and shoot pull-up threes.

Banchero is one of the best players at cutting to the rim. He is shooting an efficient 74.4 percent from the field and ranks in the 88th percentile. He is able to cut to the rim and flash cut to the free-throw line. He is quick when moving during cuts and is able to find the open space for a high percentage shot. On flash cuts, he could make shots from mid-range or take one to two dribbles to the rim and use his athleticism and strength for a high percentage finish at the rim on layups or dunks.

Banchero is able to get extra possessions and second-chance opportunities with his ability to crash the offensive glass and grab offensive rebounds. His mixture of athleticism, strength, size, and physicality allows him to grab tough contested rebounds in crowds. He grabs 1.6 offensive rebounds per game. He is able to finish those offensive rebounds and turn them into second-chance points off putbacks. When going for putbacks he is an athletic finisher around the rim. He was one of the best finishers this past season and ranked in the 87th percentile. He shot an efficient 67.9 percent on putbacks and had a high score percentage of 69.2 percent.

For his size, Banchero is able to operate well as a pick and roll ball-handler. He is one of the few bigs who can operate as a pick and roll ball handler. He is able to take advantage of switches and mismatches. He has a tight handle when coming around picks, making it hard for opponents to get steals and deflections. When coming around picks he is able to get to his spot in the mid-range and use his size to shoot over smaller defenders after opponents switch and he has a smaller defender on him. Banchero plays with poise and patience as a pick and roll ball-handler. He doesn't rush shots and only takes high percentage open shots. He is patient in getting the mismatches and matchups that he wants before finishing the possession as a pick and roll ball handler. As a pick and roll ball-handler, Banchero settles for mid-range and three-pointers more than attacking the rim.  

Banchero doesn't operate much as the pick and roll man with only 4.2 percent of his offense being as the roll man in the pick and roll but he is effective when he does. He is able to set good hard picks and absorb contact when setting the pick for the pick and roll ball-handler freeing them up. He can put the ball on the floor as the roller in the pick and roll and generate offense off the dribble by attacking the rim or shooting from mid-range or three-point range. He can also operate in the pick and pop as a catch and shoot three-point shooter with good shooting mechanics and a quick release.

Banchero is a high-level passer and playmaker for his size. He is the best passing big in this draft. He knows where his teammates operate and puts them in a position to succeed. In the half-court, he is able to find his teammates for high percentage three-point shots with his ability to drive or get dribble penetration in the paint and kick it out to an open three-point shooter. He is also able to be used as a playmaker out of the high post. When Banchero finds the big in the low post with deep post positioning he sets him up for a high percentage shot. Banchero is also able to find players cutting to the rim for a high percentage shot inside. He knows when to pass to the player cutting to the rim and has good timing when passing to the cutter to set them up inside for easy open shots. He is able to find the lob threat at the rim off cuts and is able to throw accurate lob passes to them. Banchero can also be a playmaker out of the post. His explosiveness, ability to draw fouls, and score in the post attract double teams. He reads double teams out of the post well and finds the open man. Banchero is able to be a playmaker in transition. He is able to push the pace off rebounds and steals in transition. He is quick to pass to the leak-out man allowing his teammates to push the pace for a high percentage shot at the rim in transition. It will be hard for opposing teams to double team Banchero with his ability to set up his teammates for high percentage shots out of double teams. He is a willing passer and makes the extra pass for a higher-quality shot.

Banchero has a poor reputation on the defensive end, but he is a much better defender than evaluators give him credit for. He will be a good defender at the NBA level. He has defensive lateral quickness allowing him to be an effective isolation. He is able to use his size and physicality to cut off driving lanes and limit shots at the rim. He has good defensive positioning and is able to get into a defensive stance. Banchero is versatile on the defensive end and can guard multiple positions. When guards create separation from Banchero on step-backs and side-step jumpers he is able to recover and force them into a tougher contested shot. When defended by Banchero on isolations, opponents shoot an inefficient 21.9 percent and have an effective field goal percentage of 23.4 percent. Opponents also have a low score percentage of 24.3 percent. Banchero is one of the best isolation defenders ranking in the 88th percentile. Banchero is able to defend post-ups well. With Banchero having strength, physicality and size it is difficult for the post player to get deep post positioning leading to a high percentage shot. Instead, when opponents post up Banchero it either results in a tough off-balance shot or turnovers as a result of not being able to get deep post positioning. In the post, opponents have a low scoring percentage of 29.2 percent and a high turnover rate of 33.3 percent when matched up against Banchero. Banchero also ranks in the 89th percentile for defending post-ups.

Skills That Need to Improve:

Banchero moves well without the ball and is constantly moving off-ball. He is able to find the open space when playing off-ball. His lack of speed and explosiveness moving off the ball at times results in tough contested off-balance shots. Off the ball, he is slow attacking closeouts allowing his matchup to recover. It could also lead to Banchero dribbling in traffic resulting in a turnover or a tough shot at the rim. A reason Banchero is slow off the ball is that he can be indecisive at times choosing between passing or shooting.

Banchero needs to improve his pick-and-roll defense when defending the ball-handler or the roll man, to be a more effective defender at the next level. Banchero is inconsistent at defending the pick and roll ball-handler. He has shown flashes of giving effort and fighting through screens rather than getting stuck at screens and forcing a switch. If he can improve his pick-and-roll defense, he will go from a good defender to an elite defender. Even though Banchero ranks in the 97th percentile when defending the pick and roll ball handler and opponents are only shooting 13 percent from the field, he struggles to get through picks. He is either in an upright position, flatfooted, gets stuck, or doesn’t give much effort going through the pick. He doesn't fight through picks and relies on help defense and switches. This will force the big on Banchero's team, if they aren't versatile, into an unfavorable matchup of having to switch onto the pick and roll ball handler in which the pick and roll ball-handler can blow by the big for a high percentage layup or make an open mid-range or three-point shot. Banchero benefited from having Mark Williams on his team. Mark Williams was able to provide rim protection by blocking and altering shots at the rim.

Banchero also needs to improve his ability to come around off-ball screens. When defending off-ball screens Banchero always calls for switches putting pressure on the switcher to come up with a timely switch or else the player coming around will get a high percentage open shot.

Banchero struggles when forced to defend three-point shooters. He doesn't give much effort to close out on three-point shooters. He is slow on rotations and does lazy closeouts when defending three-point shooters making it hard for him to contest, alter, or block three-point shots. Banchero also is flatfooted when he closes out on three-point shooters from the three-point line allowing them to blow by him for a high-percentage shot at the rim. Banchero needs to improve his ability to close out on three-point shooters at the next level. Teams can run small ball lineups against Banchero and get good quality looks with Banchero's inability to close out on three-point shooters. With shooting and spacing being a premium at the NBA level, Banchero will have to deal with more three-point shooters at the next level compared to college. Opponents shoot an efficient 39 percent on spot-ups against Banchero and have an effective field goal percentage of 51.3 percent. This means opponents are able to take and make a lot of spot-up and catch and shoot threes against Banchero.

Banchero needs to become a more confident three-point shooter. At times, he hesitates and has a slower release. As the season progressed Banchero's three-point shot in catch and shoot and off the dribble scenarios improved. His three-point shot became more fluid with a quicker release, and he was shooting with more confidence and less hesitation.

Player Comparison: Jayson Tatum

A player comparison for Paolo Banchero is Jayson Tatum. Both of them are three-level scorers who can create their own shots from inside, mid-range, and three-point range making them effective isolation and go-to scorers. They are both forwards that play with finesse and footwork rather than quickness and explosiveness. Their size allows both of them to make tough contested shots and shoot over smaller defenders. Banchero like Tatum is able to create separation from his defender by taking step-back and side-step jumpers. When attacking the rim both players are crafty finishers around the rim and have tremendous footwork. They are both able to change their finishing hand, change direction, and finish with both hands around the rim. This makes them both effective finishers around the rim through traffic or when defenses crowd the paint. With their ability to handle at their size, Banchero and Tatum are able to push the pace as ball-handlers in transition and make plays for themselves and others. Banchero and Tatum play defense in a similar way relying on both strength and physicality making them effective isolation defenders. They both also have defensive lateral quickness which limits players blowing by them for a high percentage shot at the rim. The difference between Tatum and Banchero is that Banchero spins-off defenders more in the post and attacks the rim, whereas Tatum likes to settle for more turnaround jumpers in the post. Banchero can make turnaround jumpers in the post against smaller defenders but looks to spin off more and absorbs contact at the rim. This allows him to draw more fouls when operating on post-ups compared to Tatum. Banchero is also a more willing passer compared to Tatum. Banchero is a higher IQ passer and his skillset as a passer is at a higher level compared to Tatum. Banchero knows the spots his teammates operate in and puts them in positions to succeed. Banchero is able to pass and set up his teammates off dribble penetration, driving and kicking, passing out of the high post to the player in the low post, finding cutters and having good timing when passing to the player cutting to the rim, passing out of the post when double-teamed, and finding the open man. Tatum's playmaking comes off the pressure he draws when attacking the rim and finding the open man off dribble penetration. Banchero is able to get more extra possessions and second-chance opportunities for his team with his ability to grab offensive rebounds compared to Tatum.

How he will fit with the Orlando Magic:

The Magic made the best pick with the best player available and fit for their team. Banchero is the cornerstone and future franchise player of the Orlando Magic. The Magic gets an immediate impact player with superstar potential and skillset that they have desperately needed for years to fit and elevate their role players. He will be their primary ball-handler and go-to-scorer. They get a player who can score in many ways in the half-court. He is a three-level scorer who can create his own shot from inside, mid-range, and three-point range. He is a crafty finisher around the rim with his ability to change his finishing hand, direction, finishing with both his right and left hand when driving to the rim, and using his frame to shield defenders making it hard for opponents to contest his layups. He is able to use his size to make tough contested shots and shoot over smaller defenders. He is also able to create separation from his defenders with his ability to take step-back and side-step jumpers. Banchero is able to score in the post. He is able to create separation by spinning off defenders and scoring at the rim. When spinning off defenders in the post, he has quickness and explosiveness and is able to absorb contact to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line. Banchero is an elite playmaker for his size. The Magic attempted 36.8 three-pointers per game which ranked 11th but only shot 33 percent on three-pointers which ranked 28th. Banchero will be able to elevate the Magic's three-point percentage by getting his teammates more quality looks with his ability to drive and kick or be a playmaker off dribble penetration and find the open three-point shooter. He also attracts double teams with his scoring ability and is able to find the open man out of double teams for a high percentage shot. Banchero is able to operate as a playmaker out of the high post and find his bigs in the low post when they have a matchup advantage against a smaller defender setting them up for a high percentage post-up opportunity. The Magic have three forwards/bigs who can be playmakers out of the high post: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. They can alternate and have versatility in which they run some big-to-big plays with their ability to score in the post and pass. They also now have a good amount of size and strength in their future frontcourt. The Magic also have the versatility of running a big lineup that also fits the mold of the modern NBA of positionless basketball with Cole Anthony at the 1, Jalen Suggs at the 2, Franz Wagner at the 3, Paolo Banchero at the 4, and Wendell Carter, Jr. at the 5. With the Magic having score-first guards and lacking some playmaking in their backcourt, the combination of playmaking and skill in the frontcourt can offset the lack of playmaking in the backcourt. The Magic have multiple switchable defenders so Banchero doesn't have to exert as much energy on the defensive end and can focus on scoring and playmaking on the offensive end which has been a major weakness of the Magic and is the skillset they desperately need. Banchero has the size and strength to defend isolations and limit blowbys on isolations but needs his teammates to switch when he is forced to defend pick and rolls and off-screens. He struggles to get through picks and screens and relies on switches and help defense, which the Magic have.