Policy Update 11th December 2024
Welcome to this week’s policy update.
As ever please do get in touch with me, suzanne@cumbriachamber.co.uk, if you’d like to discuss the following, or other, business issues, put forward your views and/or provide real life examples that we can use in advocacy activity.
Work on actions to address priorities highlighted in Cumbria’s Local Skills Improvement Plan is continuing well, thanks to the active commitment of a wide range of stakeholders. You can read an update here
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF) has revised down growth expectations for 2024, but marginally improved GDP expectations for 2025 and 2026. Increased government spending is likely to boost GDP, however business investment and trade are likely to suffer in 2025 - through the impact of the national insurance rise and major global uncertainties.
The QEF, winner of the 2024 FocusEconomics award for best GDP forecast (Forecasting Award For BCC Insights Unit - British Chambers of Commerce) expects the UK economy to grow by 0.8% in 2024, a downgrade from the previous forecast (1.1%). Growth has been revised upwards for the next two years – with 1.3% expected in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, higher than previous forecast (1.0% and 1.1%). Upgrades to 2025 and 2026 are driven by increased levels of government spending, but the overall growth landscape remains relatively weak.
The rise in employer national insurance contributions, announced at the Budget, has had a small impact on the forecast – including average earnings and unemployment. Inflation is now expected to remain above the Bank of England’s target until the end of 2026, due to increased business costs and global trade uncertainties. CPI is forecast to be 2.2% in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous forecast, and 2% in Q4 2026, slightly higher than the last forecast. As businesses face tough decisions on costs, unemployment has been revised upwards to be 4.5% by the end of 2025 before falling to 4.2% in 2026 (previously 4.4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026).
BCC surveys already showed a fall in business confidence before October’s Budget. While the full impact of the Chancellor’s statement is yet to be seen, businesses face tough decisions as bills rise. It’s vital that business rate reform is accelerated and much anticipated strategies on industry, infrastructure and trade deliver at pace in the months to come. You can read more here.
The BCC continues to be busy on your behalf. For example recent engagement includes:
- Giving evidence to the Public Bill Committee, highlighting businesses' concerns about the wide-ranging changes in the Employment Rights Bill.
- Meeting with officials, trade unions and other business representatives to discuss a proposed code of practice on the ‘right to switch off’. She has also met with Department for Works and Pensions (DWP) officials to discuss changes to statutory sick pay.
- Attending roundtables with the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) Minister Justin Madders MP to discuss wider Make Work Pay reforms.
- Attending a roundtable with Skills England chair Richard Pennycook. She raised issues such as the defunding of Level 7 apprenticeships and uncertainty over the future of LSIPs.
- Meeting with officials from the Department for Education to explore reform to T Levels so that more employers can offer industry placement opportunities for young people.
- Meeting DWP officials to discuss the government’s plans to get more economically inactive people back into work
- Meeting with the Industrial Strategy Unit team in DBT to discuss stakeholder engagement and facilitating roundtables across the Chamber network.
- Participating in the newly established Making Tax Digital (MTD) Trade and Landlord Readiness Forum to discuss the ongoing implementation of MTD and how to ensure businesses are aware of and engaging with the changes.
- Participating in a meeting of the UK Domestic Advisory Group focused on UK-EU trade and wider relationship. At this meeting, the new co-chairs of the All-party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Europe, Rosena Allin-Khan MP and Lord Kirkhope, spoke on their ambitions for the UK-EU relationship reset.
- Taking part in the Domestic Advisory Group subgroup meetings on Trade and Customs and Regulatory co-operation on key issues for the UK-EU relationship reset in 2025.
- Having a discussion with Tom Fox, Deputy Director of DBT’s EU Unit, which will lead to follow up engagement as the reset of the UK-EU trade relationship gathers pace.
- Participating in the DBT Director General update forum with latest UK trade negotiations briefings from Amanda Brooks.
- Taking part in a discussion with DBT officials on the government’s China Audit. The BCC will make further representations on this shortly.
- Raising issues of business mobility in the DBT Service Trade Negotiations Forum. Attending a policy roundtable on the implementation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Matthew Davies, the UK Government lead negotiator, was a key speaker raising how the agreement could develop to help UK businesses further in the coming years.
- Taking part in an ODI Global roundtable on trade with South Africa and its neighbours. The key issues raised were focused on the expansion of e-commerce and critical minerals supply chains with the UK.
- Attending a roundtable on the Circular Economy hosted by the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) and attended by Deirdre Costigan MP.
- Meeting with officials from HM Treasury to share businesses’ views on broadband in the UK.
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- Leading a breakout session at the London EV show talking about market trends, emerging regulatory and trade issues, and the prospects for further electrification of the transport network.
- Participating as a panel speaker at the Airlines UK annual conference, offering BCC’s view on the economic importance of the aviation sector.
- Providing evidence to the World Trade Organisation’s visiting Trade Policy Review team, focusing on the impact of UK trade policy on exports, imports, and investment growth. This input will inform the WTO’s analysis of UK trade, set to be published next year.
- Meeting with the German Embassy to discuss resetting UK-EU trade, recent economic developments in both countries, and how political events in Germany may shape the bilateral relationship with the UK.
- Engaging with the Customs and Trade Facilitation team from DBT to review trade data, documentation, rules of origin, progress on the Single Trade Window, and the ten-year impact of the Trade Facilitation Agreement.
- Meeting with DBT’s Trade Digitalisation team to discuss advancements in digital trade within the UK and strategies to boost adoption of digital trade practices internationally.
Responding to the Prime Minister’s Plan For Change, Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the BCC, said:
“It was good to hear the Prime Minister double down on his commitment to grow the economy and highlight the importance of reforming the planning system. The target of 150 new infrastructure projects is one that business will welcome, with its potential to boost regions and reinvigorate supply chains. But there is still a huge gap between the what and the how and when. With a bruising budget forcing many firms to revisit their investment and hiring plans, the pathway to this promised growth needs to accelerate. The cost-of-living crisis and the cost of doing business - are two sides of the same coin. They can’t be dealt with in isolation. Boosting private sector investment is fundamental to improving the cost of living. That’s why it’s crucial that Government creates the right conditions for businesses to stay competitive and grow in communities across the UK.”
Last week the BCC hosted Business Council breakfast briefing at the Palace of Westminster, supported by BP. The event brought together key stakeholders to discuss driving forward business and economic growth while ensuring the transition to net-zero. You can see some photos from the event here and watch a short video from Shevaun here – you can spot me in emerald green.
You can read more here about Enterprising Cumbria’s Economic Summit, which took place last week. It was organised with support from Cumberland Council and Westmorland and Furness Council and focused on the emerging Cumbria Economic Strategy, giving an opportunity for businesses and other stakeholders to share views. Through the link you can view the conference presentations and you’re encouraged to comment to Enterprising Cumbria Contact us | Enterprising Cumbria, or via me, suzanne@cumbriachamber.co.uk.
Construction work has begun on the new Innovation Centre in Workington. The building will provide purpose-built accommodation for entrepreneurial businesses, as well as bringing new modern office space to Workington, something currently lacking in the town. The Innovation Centre is located on part of the former Central Car Park in Workington town centre and will, primarily, be aimed at digital technology and advanced manufacturing businesses. The aim is to attract start-ups who are ripe for incubation, as well as small businesses ready for growth. Expert support will be available to help them achieve their ambitions from operating company, Oxford Innovation Space. It manages a number of similar facilities across the UK, working with local authorities, universities, science parks and investors. The first stages of work involve site clearance and the removal of rubble and slag-material, with the groundworks expected to be completed early in 2025. The Innovation Centre is expected to open in Spring 2026. You can read more here.
Specialist contractor Redstart Northwest Ltd is designing phase two of the remediation of the Marina Village site, which will support upwards of 808 homes and green space in Barrow. Westmorland and Furness Council’s Cabinet is due to decide in January whether to progress with stage two of the remediation “design and build” contract with Redstart. A decision on the adoption of the Marina Village Strategic Planning Document, which will guide the transformation of the site into a modern, attractive and desirable place to live, is expected in February. Planning approval for remediation has been granted for the majority of the site and a planning application for remediation work on the small remaining section of the site without is due to be submitted by the end of the year. Phases one and two of the 26-hectare site between Cavendish Dock and Salthouse Road will support 808 new homes, strengthening the council's work with government and BAE Systems as Team Barrow to ensure that interventions needed to support employment opportunities at BAE are transformational, inclusive and long lasting for Barrow, Westmorland and Furness, and beyond.
Homes England pledged £24.8 million earlier this year to fund remediation of phase two of the site. Funding through Brilliant Barrow – regeneration funding from the Government’s Towns Fund – has also supported the scheme. Phase one of the development – the remediation of six hectares of land funded by £5.5 million secured from the Government’s Getting Building Fund, administered by Cumbria LEP – was completed in November last year. The Marina Village plan is seen as a vital part of Barrow’s wider regeneration agenda, creating a vibrant community and providing new housing in the heart of the town near to centres of education, major employers and local shops and businesses and changing perceptions of Barrow as a place to live.
DWP, DfE and HMT have jointly published the Get Britain Working White Paper, which sets out the steps the Government will take to tackle economic inactivity. You can find out more here. Nationally 2.8 million people are out of work due to long-term sickness or disability, 1 in 8 young people are NEET and nearly one in five working age adults do not hold at least a level 2 qualification which would help them get on in life and work Ps. Tackling this problem is seen as critical to delivering the Growth mission, with a need to get more people into work, and particularly skilled work, to make productivity gains and to meet the skills needs of employers in a wide range of sectors and places across the country.
The Get Britain Working White Paper announces a set of measures that will empower local areas to tackle inactivity in their areas and reform employment support to better support people into long-term work:
These plans are not intended to replace Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs), rather that they should complement one another. Get Britain Working Plans, will be specifically focused on getting people into work and reducing economic inactivity in a place. To do this, they will use the skills needs and priority changes identified in LSIPs as a key source of intelligence. The English Devolution White Paper, which will be published in due course, will set out in more detail how Local Skills Improvement Plans, Get Britain Working Plans and the Local Growth Plans will work together.
A new Global Britain report from the BCC is urging the Government to get the UK match fit for a more fractious era in trade. The report has 26 recommendations focussed on export growth, trade alliances, investment and economic diplomacy, regulatory reform and infrastructure. Its top asks include:
The trade and investment report is the second to come from the BCC’s Global Britain Challenge group, as part of its ‘Future of the Economy’ project with its Business Council. It draws on expertise from businesses of all sizes, academia, Chambers and think-tanks. It recognises that the UK is starting from a position of great strength – it is the sixth largest economy in the world, the second largest exporter of services and the second largest inward investment destination in Europe. Yet the country has struggled to build momentum since the pandemic, as the wide-ranging readjustments caused by Brexit have continued to dominate the trade landscape. Now a further seismic shift is imminent with the arrival of a new US President in January 2025. This is set to usher in a new era of tariffs and protectionism, with the potential for escalation into full-scale trade wars. However, the UK’s position outside of the EU, means it now has more independence to decide upon the response it takes to tariffs. It can also act in a more agile way, forming global alliances to help shape the wider trade narrative.
The Government is seeking ideas for its Integrated National Transport Strategy. This is your chance to share insights and help shape future transport policies. Contribute your ideas and explore the details here. Please also share views with me, suzanne@cumbriachamber.co.uk.
Last week the UK government announced a package of new measures to support small businesses, aimed at providing targeted support to small businesses and entrepreneurs across the UK. The Disability Finance Code for Entrepreneurship, was developed by DBT in partnership with UK Finance, British Business Bank and the Lilac Review. BCC Chair, Sarah Howard MBE sits on the Steering Board for the Lilac Review representing the Chamber Network. The Code intends to drive engagement between the disabled entrepreneur community and the financial services sector in the UK. You can find out more here.
Anthropy is the UK’s largest gathering of leaders dedicated to rebooting Britain and envisioning a brighter long-term future for the UK. At its core is a 3-day national gathering at the Eden Project in Cornwall, to embark on 200+ sessions, led by 600+ speakers. Baroness Martha Lane Fox CBE, BCC President, Sarah Howard MBE, Chair and Shevaun Haviland, Director General, will all be in attendance alongside hundreds of organisations and 2,000+ senior leaders from across the UK. Chamber members can participate at the next national gathering, at the Eden Project, Cornwall, 26th-28th March 2025, with 20% off the usual ticket price. Contact ellen@cumbriachamber.co.uk for a code for a 20% discount off the standard 3-day ticket price. You can find out more and register here.
The EU General Product Safety Regulation comes into force on 13th December, requiring UK exporters in regulated product areas to appoint a responsible person in the EU for sales to businesses or consumers. The same requirement applies for sales from GB to NI. Contact us if you encounter issues with this compliance.
From 15th December UK businesses can utilise Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade preferences with eight Asia-Pacific countries and from Tuesday 24 December with Australia. Contact us is you experience any issues.
Skills England is accepting evidence on the impact that defunding Level 7 apprenticeships could have on the 8 key growth sectors in the industrial strategy. If you have any evidence to highlight please let me know, suzanne@cumbriachamber.co.uk.
The Lake District National Park is inviting comments on their revised Design Code Supplementary Planning Document. The original was adopted on the 20th September 2023 and since then applicants and Development Management have applied the Supplementary Planning Document to planning applications. To make the Design Code easier to understand and apply, minor changes to illustrations in the light, aspect, and privacy chapter are necessary. You can see the summary of changes to the Design Code on the Design Code Supplementary Planning Document : Lake District National Park. To comment on the revised Design Code Supplementary Planning Document please complete this Design Code Consultation or email localplan@lakedistrict.gov.uk. The consultation is open until 17th January 2025.
Suzanne Caldwell, Managing Director