The Recent China-US Summit: Insights Beyond the Photo Ops

 Last week, the world's attention was fixed on San Francisco as President Xi of China and President Biden met for the first time in over a year. The picturesque setting of a beautiful estate south of San Francisco provided an ideal backdrop not only for captivating photos but, more significantly, for the opportunity to renew the rapport between these seasoned leaders.

Both leaders came to San Francisco with the hope that the four-hour meeting, held alongside the APEC forum, would establish a foundation for what defines this era's bilateral relationship. However, it's important to recognize that their motives diverged significantly. Biden sought to reduce tensions, given that the United States is currently grappling with Russian aggression in Ukraine and the aftermath of the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel. Furthermore, being just a year away from the 2024 presidential election, Biden needed to demonstrate that he could take a firm stance on China, both to counter Republican criticism and to address issues directly impacting American citizens. In this regard, he successfully pressed China to pledge further action to control the export of chemical precursors used by Mexican cartels to produce fentanyl.

On the other hand, Xi arrived in California with his own challenges. The Chinese economy's underperformance, resulting from years of excessive state intervention since Xi came to power a decade ago, has led to high youth unemployment, reduced exports and foreign direct investment, and mounting debt. The last thing Xi and China's economy needed were additional US export controls, sanctions, and tariffs.

Officially, the news was positive, highlighting the reestablishment of communication channels between the two nations, particularly in the military sphere, with the hope of stabilizing future relations. President Xi's words to President Biden, "Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed," echoed a sentiment of cooperation.

While high-profile summits capture global attention, the real intricacies play out behind the scenes through the efforts of second-level diplomats responsible for trade, finance, agriculture, and diplomatic relations. These behind-the-scenes negotiations are fundamental to the functioning of countries like China and the United States.

An analysis of the outcome can be drawn from the evolving rhetoric in both countries' domestic media. In China, there has been a notable shift towards emphasizing collaboration with the United States on issues such as the environment, trade, and cooperation. This represents a significant departure from just a month ago when the media accused the US of interference.

One noteworthy outcome is President Xi's agreement to continue the exchange of Chinese giant pandas with American zoological organizations for exhibition, study, and reproduction—a move seen as a positive gesture from the Chinese perspective.

Reports suggest that Taiwan was likely discussed, with China reaffirming its stance on Taiwan's integral part in the People's Republic of China, while the United States maintains a different viewpoint.

As a businessman and long-time resident in China, I have come to understand that public statements often serve a dual purpose: stimulating domestic opinions while projecting unique national benefits and styles of friendship to the world.

Understanding the stark differences in the worldviews of China and the United States is crucial. The United States, with nearly 250 years of progressive, liberal governance, stands in contrast to China's younger political system, navigating complexities since its establishment about 70 years ago. China's evolving political and economic landscape, particularly since the 1980s, has resulted in a complex system with numerous stakeholders.

Dispelling the notion of a monolithic, autocratic system, the Chinese political landscape resembles a multifaceted chess game, involving national, local, provincial governments, the military, bureaucracy, and the industrial complex. Despite projecting unity, the reality within the halls of power is nuanced and intricate.

The summit did not appear to bridge the gaps between China and the United States regarding the two major ongoing global conflicts. China aligns closely with Russia, while the United States supports Ukraine, and China has distanced itself from Israel following the October 7th attack, refusing to condemn Hamas and calling for an unconditional ceasefire.

Despite these differences, the two governments do not seem to be on a collision course in either region. China has refrained from arming Russia, and it has a vested interest in preventing further escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which could jeopardize its ability to import Iranian oil. Xi also aims to avoid a scenario where mounting geopolitical differences over these crises provide a pretext for the United States to take additional steps that would further complicate China's economic challenges.

However, it remains uncertain whether such calculations on Xi's part will lead China to exercise restraint in the South China Sea, where it has been applying increasing pressure against the Philippines, a long-standing American ally. Additionally, the summit did not provide any indication that China is prepared to use its influence to rein in the nuclear and missile programs of North Korea.

Over seven decades, the modern US-China relationship has undergone significant evolution. In the early years, there was virtually no relationship, and the United States found itself in an armed confrontation with China during the Korean War. Two decades later, a period of strategic cooperation against the Soviet Union ensued, followed by a joint focus on boosting trade and investment once the Cold War ended. However, economic ties have become a source of friction in recent years, and as China has become increasingly assertive, the two countries have found themselves at odds on various fronts, including regional and global issues, as well as human rights.

The San Francisco summit did not alter this reality. US-China relations continue to be a challenge to manage rather than a problem to solve. Expecting more from the summit would have been unrealistic. The world's most significant bilateral relationship remains highly competitive, and the ongoing challenge for most to watch and a few to navigate. 

From Shanghai.

Alexander Glos