REVISIONING THE PAST, CONSTRUCTING THE FUTURE: UNVEILING HINDSIGHT BIAS IN MOROCCO’S TAPESTRY OF HISTORY AND DECISION-MAKING

Wisdom in hindsight is cold comfort to those who lost mightily – ERIK GERDING

In the rich tapestry of Morocco’s history and contemporary decision-making, the subtleties of hindsight bias weave a complex narrative. This cognitive phenomenon, where events seem more predictable after they occur, profoundly influences the way Moroccans perceive their past and navigate present challenges. In this article, we embark on a journey to unravel the threads of hindsight bias in Morocco, exploring its impact on historical narratives and decision-making processes.

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they ‘knew it all along,’ that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known (Roese & Vohs, 2012)

Morocco’s history is rife with examples of hindsight bias affecting the way events are perceived. For instance, the political shifts and decisions surrounding the country’s quest for independence may appear more straightforward when viewed through the lens of hindsight. The intricacies of the political landscape and the uncertainties faced by leaders during those times can be overshadowed by a retrospective sense of inevitability.

In everyday life we often do not expect something to happen until it does. Then we suddenly see clearly the forces that brought the event about and feel unsurprised. Moreover, we may also misremember our earlier view (Blank et al., 2008; Nestler et al., 2010)

In the context of modern decision-making, hindsight bias can be observed in economic policies and political strategies. Examining economic downturns or political shifts, there is a tendency for individuals to believe that the outcomes were more predictable than they actually were. This retrospective clarity can impact the evaluation of leaders and policies, potentially hindering progress and learning from past experiences.

Errors in judging the future’s foreseeability and in remembering our past combine to create hindsight bias […] (Myers, 2013: 14)

Furthermore, the collective memory of Morocco is shaped by historical events, and hindsight bias plays a role in how these events are remembered. For example, the complexities of negotiations for the Green March in 1975 may be oversimplified, with the success of the mission appearing more assured in hindsight than it was at the time (Hafez & Slyomovics, 2013). The challenges faced and the uncertainty of the outcome can be overshadowed by the illusion of predictability.

In Morocco’s contemporary decision-making landscape, it’s essential to recognize how hindsight bias intersects with other cognitive biases. Leaders and policymakers should be aware of how these biases may impact their assessments of past decisions and be proactive in mitigating their influence. This awareness is crucial for making well-informed decisions that consider the complexities of the present without falling victim to the distortions of hindsight.

Moreover, to mitigate hindsight bias, fostering a culture that values open dialogue about decision-making processes is crucial. Acknowledging the uncertainties and challenges faced in the past allows for a more nuanced understanding of historical events and facilitates better decision-making in the present. Embracing the complexity of situations and avoiding oversimplified narratives can contribute to a more accurate assessment of both history and contemporary challenges.

Overall, as Morocco navigates the intersection of history and decision-making, an awareness of hindsight bias is paramount. By untangling the threads of this cognitive phenomenon, Moroccans can develop a more nuanced understanding of their past and approach present challenges with a clearer perspective. Through proactive measures and an openness to complexity, Morocco can weave a future that learns from the lessons of history without succumbing to the distortions of hindsight bias.