Seeing is believing

The Weekender offers my perspective on market developments and their potential broader implications, written most Friday afternoons. If you'd like this delivered to your inbox on Saturday mornings via Northern Trust, please sign up here.

Don’t see, don’t believe

No one under the age of 36 has voted in a UK general election that returned a prime minister who was not a Tory. No one under the age of 45 has worked in financial markets and seen a secular bull market in UK equities. No one working in Japan under the age of 50 has ever seen structural inflation. No parent under the age of 60 remembers being asked to ‘stockpile’ food in case of ‘attack’ (more on this below) and no one, anywhere, under the age of 65 has seen England win a football world cup final live. Well, I think that’s all about to change.

Well, except for the football. That will never happen.

The irony of independence

I promised not to talk about UK again last week, but I’ve been forced to by a bunch of outsiders. No, I don’t mean Rishi Sunak who’s not yet outside, although he is seeking independence from the same (former) employer of the Americans, curiously on The 4th of July (a date which ironically, may signal closer US-UK relations should Sunak have a FTA up his sleeve, like I believe he may!). I mean those outside the UK who are looking to acquire prize UK Wealth assets at the centre of our capital markets like Hargreaves Lansdown. And it wasn’t just them attracting headlines, smaller rival AJ Bell shocked the weary press, scrambling them for superlatives like ‘surge’ and ‘smash’ to describe their most recent earnings report. This, in the third most hated market on the planet. What on earth could be happening?

Could it be the world’s second largest savings pot is beginning to develop an equity culture, a home bias even? And could this signal the beginning of a secular bull market for UK stocks?

See my answer below at the end of this edition.

Outside influence

As we’ve discussed, the UK Wealth market is ripe for consolidation and one of the more interesting opportunities in markets, anywhere. It’s a proxy for many of the trends we’ve discussed over the years and it’s no surprise to see it attract attention. What is surprising is who it’s attracting – outsiders. We’ve had Europeans (CVC), a Nord (Nordic Capital) and a Middle Eastern (Adia) bid for Hargreaves. We already have those deep-pocketed Canadians (OTPP and RBC) scoop-up great UK brands. The Aussies are circling with Aware Super the latest to exploit their ‘free trade’ status. And from Sweden, Gustaf Rentzhog, CEO of Söderberg has been hoovering up IFAs with help from KKR, TA Associates and former CEO of St James Place, David Bellamy.

Yes, I agree – that is interesting.

Digging for riches

Maybe the Brits are too anchored to past failures and own goals. Or maybe they are too busy building bunkers and buying tinned cans to see the opportunity (read on). For outsiders see a very different future. The Hargreaves bid is yet another example of outside duration capital coming to the UK to exploit its valuation discount and multiple catalysts. Its rich endowments of AI unicorns, and critically the supply chains thereto: the data, IP clusters and (claims on) critical materials. As it relates to materials, we are all excited by shiny new things, like Nvidia chips sets, but at risk of overlooking the material world necessary to produce them. As Russell Napier says, “supply rises from the dirt but demand shines in the stars”. We need both, of course, but not at the expense of the other.

So, less gazing, more digging. There’s excitement in AI. But riches in dirt.

What Jamie Dimon didn’t write, but should have. So I will instead

Jamie wrote:

“Inflation's not going away. Meaning bank-crushing interest rates aren't going away, and neither are 8% mortgages. There are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us, inflation may not go away the way people expect it to. If you have higher rates and God forbid stagflation, you will see real stress in real estate, leveraged companies, and private credit.”

He may not have written (but maybe should have), that:

Our bond books don’t have yields high enough to compensate for inflation/rate volatility. And maybe also that our equity books are too expensive and we are ignoring the key feature of future returns – starting valuation. We are structurally underweight the most important hedge to these scenarios unfolding: supply constrained real assets like gold, copper and olive oil. And yet we say we’re diversified? Oh, and the RoW is not just for holidays, but for investing.

Maybe also: Oh, and I’m retiring – and at the top – so no pressure. Ciao

Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital

Stock up

The UK Government has advised people to stock-up on ‘analogue capabilities’ (think batteries, radios, candles, three days of food/water, ) to boost ‘personal resilience’ in case of prolonged power cuts, supply-chain issues, internet outages or flood. Prepare for Famine, Revolution, War or Climate catastrophes, basically. (Cool: I might get rich on UK stocks, followed by a visit from the horsemen of the apocalypse?).

Which got me thinking. If self-reliance (aka ‘stocking up’) becomes a thing for people, what not government? What scarce, strategic things might government start piling up, just in case just in time gets hindered by the unexpected? We know they do oil, but what about other ‘critical supplies’ needed for clean electricity, the internet, fibre-optics etc. Things like copper. Perhaps that explains China’s latest moves (see the chart below). The UK may be next, especially if it wants to help the National Grid’s enormous plan to ‘re-wire the UK for net-zero’. It seems likely, you all need to add ‘strategic demand’ to ‘structural’ (transition) and ‘industrial’ when it comes to metals, and adjust your look look-through multiples, and models, accordingly.

No clues needed as to which way the chart thinks they will be heading

Source: Steno Research

Artificial intelligence: commoditizing

Now, I’ve no dog in this race. I sold Nvidia too early and while I still have some exposure to the hyper-scalers, I am beginning to wonder whether these enormous investments into ‘utility computing’ and ‘the cloud’ will deliver returns fast enough before the market loses patience. Which it has a tendency of doing. Especially after manias. I’m worried about what dividends signal (imminent earnings peak and maturing growth) and I’m worried by history. There are simply too many examples of huge investment in factories, infrastructure like rail, roads, electricity and cable leading to commoditisation, diminished returns and business. Often the only winner is the consumer. And I wasn’t helped when listening to Jensen Huang talk about the next industrial revolution being one where ‘AI factories produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence'.

Now read that paragraph again.

Words like ‘utility’, ‘factories’ and ‘commodity’ are being used. And not by me, but the flag bearers. And I don’t know many commodity or utility business that trade much more than 15x PE. But I know of plenty well below and even more well above. Mean reversion can be a slow and painful process, especially for those under 40 who have never seen a commodity bull market.

God™: still outperforming expectations

Finally, for some needed light reprieve from (see above: tin cans, tin hats, UK election and foreigners trying to pinch our prized assets) read this week’s Economist. Like the New Scientist magazine, its best bits are often not what they’re known for. The New Scientist is my go to for stock ideas (sorry JPM) and the Economist for humor, obituaries and book reviews. Shirley Conran’s obituary is hilarious (p78) – internationally known for writing best-selling “bonkbuster” books like Lace, divorced wife of Terrance Conran who received a damehood not for writing, but mathematics. Even better is the book review on The Devine Economy (pg. 72) which gets good reviews, up there with ‘God’s best known work, the Bible’ although one rather blasphemous reviewer criticized ‘the main protagonist for being a bit full of himself’. But it was the hard facts that caught my attention. Did you know the Morman Church is one of the biggest private landowners in America and American faith-based organisations had revenues of $378bn, more than Apple and Microsoft combined? Not bad for belief business. It surpasses – even – some of the beliefs forming about AI.

Just imagine if people started to believe in copper. Or UK stocks. Or any stocks outside the US for that matter. Although they may not need belief for long to view those bull markets.

It may well soon be quite obvious to see.

This is what a secular bull market looks like.

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