Should Shaheen Shah Afridi Play Test Cricket?

Earlier today the Chief Selector of the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) announced an 18 Man Squad for Pakistan's 3 Test Tour to Australia starting next month. In his Press Conference, the Chief Selector alluded to the availability and subsequent unavailability of Haris Rauf.

For those who know, Haris Rauf made his name as a T20 Bowler. Not so long ago, Haris was playing Tape Ball Cricket in Pakistan, only to be discovered by the Lahore Qalandars as part of their Player Development Program. Today, Haris is one of best First Change/Death Bowlers in T20 Cricket. He is an in demand commodity on the T20 Market.

Despite his ascent in T20 Cricket, Haris has started to develop himself both in One Day Cricket, where he is a staple in Pakistan's Bowling Lineup despite a very poor World Cup. He's even made progress as a Longer Format Bowler. Back when Pakistan had a provincial Domestic System, Rauf represented Northerns. While the sample size is small, there is without question an interesting test prospect in there. But this piece isn't necessarily about Rauf or Pakistan Cricket. It's about Aligning Incentives.

According to Pakistan's Chief Selector, Rauf made himself available and subsequently unavailable at the final hour citing fitness concerns. While we haven't heard Rauf's side, lets think about this. Rauf has been on the road for almost 8 weeks playing One Day Cricket. He's been bowling very poorly. Now, he's being asked to get on a plane to play test cricket in Australia where he's going to be expected to bowl 20 Overs a Day or approximately 120 overs over the course of a month. While Pakistan's Chief Selector said the expectation is that Haris will only have to bowl 10-12 Overs a day, that begs another question. Can you Build a Functional Test Attack where one of the presumably three pacers only contributes 10 Overs a day? That brings me to Shaheen.

Shaheen is coming off an injury and like Haris, a poor World Cup. He's going to Australia with the expectation that he's going to lead an attack without having played any 4-Day Cricket. Unlike Haris, the expectation for Shaheen is that he's going to be able to bowl 20+ overs a day. Imagine asking a Justin Verlander to make a 100 Pitches on Day 1 of Spring Training. That's essentially what Pakistan is asking a brittle Shaheen to do.

Of course none of this factors in the economics of Cricket. With the ILT20, the PSL, and the Big Bash all on the horizon it's only natural for someone like Haris to protect his body. Should we ask Haris or Shaheen to risk long-term injury in Australia and miss out on approximately $200K US. Would any human on earth forgo $200K US for one month's work? Especially keeping in mind that Pakistani Cricketers have no Health Insurance or any Legal Protections against a dysfunctional employer.

All of this is a good reminder about the importance of Aligned Incentives. The Chief Selector, the Players, the Agents, and the System at-large is operating without Aligned Incentives. In a system that only benefits the individual, why should anyone side with the collective or the greater good?