Thinking about the world after Covid-19...

This pandemic is a transformative event. The economic impacts are huge, and, at this point, not really measurable. Radical changes are happening and will continue into the future. These are some of my thoughts and questions about the after-Covid 19 world. The intention is to raise the issues and try to imagine scenarios. It would be great to know other people’s voices and thoughts, so I ask you, my reader, to speak (or write) up. It looks like the world as we know it is being demolished. We will be called to re-build it. The moment calls for discussion and collective thinking. No contribution is unimportant.

Governments will have to realign priorities. The pandemic made clear that public investment is, in most countries, insuficient and disbalanced. Resource alocation - in times of one of the greatest downturns in a century - will be a major issue. The purpose of Government, it’s key roles and responsibilities in a Democratic State will be a major discussion.

Public-Private Partnerships will probably be a key factor of reactivation of the post-pandemic economy. The terms of these partnerships, the distribution of risks between government and the private partners, the financing mechanisms and guaratees for new contracts and how to re-balance existing ones after this force majeure event are major challenges ahead. The Legal community has been very active discussing these issues, and the near future will bring these challenges in front of governments and companies. Tackling these challenges will demand innovative thinking, a risk sharing attitude and flexibility both from governments and from private partners. Re-building the economy will demand a significant increase in the number of contracts, which brings a proportional increase in the number of complex disputes. It looks like the traditional judicial system will not be able to fully respond to the demand due to lack of resources. Arbitration, mediation and other dispute resolution techniques are set to grow.

Business, I believe, will go through major transformations driven by cost, efficiency and risk. The cost of serving customers as well the risk related to workforce management and supply chains will go throught re-evaluation, as sales, backoffice and operations definitely go online. It may be the end of the store as we know it, by the way. Shopping malls may become different - and potentially more fun - places in the future, focused on brand experience, product introductions, cultural products and people interaction.

Data security will be a major issue to address - to keep online communications and people/company data protected. Innovative systems and processes will have to be created to ensure efficient, precise and secure AI-operated transactions directly between companies ERP’s. The same issues touch the rapid increase in IoT technologies to decrease human intervention in manufacturing processes, auto-servicing on shops and other machine-driven production, warehousing and servicing operations. The focus will be production process reliability and efficiency, cost reduction, working capital optimization, supply chain risk controls. Information management, supply partnerships and AI driven automation from manufacturing to delivery will be drivers for competitive advantage.

Supply chain risk gained a new dimension in the pandemic. Globalized production seems to have met one of its limits: in a world where components and manufactured somewhere, assembly takes place somewhere else and consumption is all over the place, if one player goes down, everyone falls. There are multiple ways to tackle this, with diferences and particularities for each sector/market. Is it the end of supply chain globalization? I really do not think so. But the current global supply chain configurations will certainly be broadly re-evaluated and re-positioned, in light of risks imposed by big consolidations in global supply, asian dominance in manufacturing and the need to generate local job opportunities for an unemployed workforce.

Education is already going through a major transformation. Online teaching has proven to be important to keep school schedule going through the crisis, but going into the future it will become an integral part of schooling. Preparing teachers, parents and students will take effort and investment from the public and private education systems. Teachers will have a different role, much more strategic and related to conveying dynamic and meaningfull content, that stimulates both information gathering and knowledge creation skills in students. Teaching online is also a whole different communication challenge.

Of course, healthcare will be transformed. The pandemic made clear that the human species is at risk - nature can use a virus to wipe us out, and it will likely happen if society can’t find ways to universalize healthcare. It is not only a matter of justice and economic equallity: in a pandemic, everyone - from miserable to über-rich can fall victims of contagion. Having the means, the systems and the resources to provide universal healthcare is a matter of rationality. The insurance industry will be called to contribute with innovative ways com complement government healthcare universalization programs, that will have to be affordable and available.

Creating jobs, qualify and support the workforce for a different world going forward is a major challenge. The nature of employment itself will change, and the workforce will have to change along. Remote workforce is already a reality and will become a new normal. Many jobs of today may become assignments, with beginning and end dates. Workers will have to develop a lot more autonomy - leaders will be at distance and less available for feedback, performance evaluation will become way more objective and KPI-based. Looking from the angle of efficiency, these changes may bring savings related to less commuting hours, time lost in non work-related social interactions and increased task focus when people work from home. But the change may bring growth pains related to increase of ergonomic diseases, burnout and other physical and mental occupational health issues, that may translate into increased cost and judicial demands burdening Legal and HR departments.

Finally, the nature of leadership will have to be different. Leaders will be under pressure to lead by communicating and projecting their thoughts and strategies to people whose real behavior they cannot actually see - people project a different persona online as compared to face-to-face. Two challenges ahead: engaging people at distance will take new and different communication skills; controlling performance through measurable KPI’s for all in the organization will be the only way to really track peoples performances. Processes and systems, again, will have to evolve to enable all these changes.

And you? What are your thoughts for the after-pandemic?