Trump and the World

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks to Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker , Michael Hanna, Renata Segura , Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao about what Trump’s return to the White House means for American foreign policy and how the world is getting ready. 

Listen to the series on Apple Podcast or Spotify. 

// On Our Radar

Chad

The Chadian authorities announced Sunday that they were considering withdrawing Chad’s contingent from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which fights Islamist militants in the Sahel, citing a lack of regional coordination. The decision follows a Boko Haram attack that killed at least 40 Chadian soldiers in Lake Chad province in late October. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the announcement is a sign of frustration on the part of the Chadian government, which feels it is on its own against the Islamist group. If Chad goes ahead with the withdrawal, it will severely weaken the MNJTF, which is already struggling with divergent priorities among its members, and further test the limits of cooperation against transnational jihadist threats.

Lebanon

A series of Israeli strikes Wednesday in eastern Lebanon killed at least 40 people, as Israel once more intensified bombardment of Shiite-majority areas. This weeks assaults, which also targeted southern Lebanon and Beiruts southern suburbs, add to Lebanons displacement crisis, with well over one million people forced from their homes. Crisis Group David Wood says Israel lacks a clear plan for achieving lasting security gains with its Lebanon campaign, as Hizbollah continues to launch missile and drone attacks at Israel.

United States

Republican Donald Trump won a second term as U.S. president Tuesday, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. The election also saw Republicans regain control of the U.S. Senate and positioned them to retain a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna says Trump’s return to the White House could have far-reaching implications for U.S. policy around the world. Washington may curb its support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion, as well as its already limited efforts to restrain Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. Tensions with China in the Indo-Pacific may rise. Overall, a more erratic and transactional Washington may strain longstanding U.S. alliances.

You can find previous editions of On Our Radar here.

// CrisisWatch

November Alerts and October Trends

The latest edition of our monthly conflict tracker highlights five conflict risks in November, namely in Iran, Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, Mexico and Mozambique. It also highlights resolution opportunities in Armenia and Azerbaijan. In October, it spotlighted deteriorations in eleven countries and conflict areas and improvements in two locations.

// Publications

Weighing the Case for a New Peacekeeping Mission to Haiti

Haiti has filed a formal request for a blue-helmet force to help national police fight the criminal gangs bedevilling the country. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Daniel Forti examine the main questions about mounting such an operation.

Now available in Spanish.

// Podcasts

Inside Sudan's Catastrophic Civil War

This week on The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson talks with BBC journalist Mohanad (Mo) Hashim about his recent trip to Sudan, the devastating toll the war has taken on civilians, why the conflict remains underreported in international media, and Sudan’s uncertain political future.

Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

// Events

How Will the Trump Administration Approach China Policy?

In this event, Crisis Group will draw from its recent report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, which compared how a second Trump administration and a Harris administration would likely approach China policy and suggested four steps that the next U.S. administration should take to stabilise bilateral ties.

The event will be in English and livestreamed on YouTube.

Click here to register on Zoom.

Bangladesh Three Months After Hasina’s Downfall: Opportunities and Challenges

In this Crisis Group event, Crisis Group experts and external speakers provided insight on the interim government’s ambitious reform plans and its prospects for success, with an emphasis on how international partners can support political and economic reforms. 

A recording of this event is now available on YouTube.

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