Trump's Effect Goes Global

The election of Donald Trump doesn’t just redefine the politics of the United States. It has the propensity to alter domestic politics across the world.

Large-than-life political leaders are nothing new. The autocrats, despots or flamboyant democrats all have held sway for decades in their respective lands. But, when the persona of a Donald Trump occupies the White House, the ripple effects can become tidal waves for political parties and personalities in unintended ways.

Political leaders across the world will all have a new question asked of them: “What’s your position on Trump?” Such an enquiry will now be almost as important as asking a politician about his economic policy or what he feels about social rights. The ‘Trump Position’ will affect liberals, conservatives, socialists, nationalists and practicing and aspirant despots in many ways.

As ‘leader of the free world’, the US President often has a ‘love-hate’ relationship with the rest of the world. At best, he is regarded as a yardstick, a leading example, a credible benchmark to either aspire to or to emulate. At worst, he is seen as someone who intervenes in the affairs of others, beholden unto a narrow elite hell-bent on extending dubious economic and political values in order to extract profit or supplication.

Whichever way you see the role of the US President in the world, initial effects of the Trump Presidency are causing global ructions. In every deed since assuming office, Trump presents the global political establishment with their own set of challenges.

Across the pond in the UK and Europe where populism is on the ride, the position on Trump can either hinder or help continental politicians. Trump’s support for Brexit certainly helps and emboldens Brexiteers. His hard-line attitude to immigration can elevate an already emotive issue to new heights on the domestic political agenda. 

Trump's view is so powerfully articulated and dominant within the media, it lends credibility to the ‘fortress’ mentality espoused by many on the right. After all, if Trump in America can place bans on Muslims entering the US, we can too. And, if Trump can rule by executive order, why can’t we as well? And, if Trump can be a proud Nationalist who ‘puts America first” why can’t we put France or Holland or Italy first too?

But there is a distinct danger for populists in Europe too. Should Trump be perceived by the electorate as too unpalatable, sentiment could shift. And, if Trump’s policies backfire either economically or socially within the US, this can negatively hamper the right-wing cause.

Ultimately, Europe’s right now has a living and practicing disciple operating in uncharted waters in Washington. If that example is a disaster, Europe’s right will be the losers. A Trump disaster can galvanise the somewhat lazy electorates of the continent to turn out on voting day against populism.

Where issues of immigration, terrorism or border integrity are not paramount, other aspects of the “Trump Position” will be felt.

In day-to-day governance, many politicians would prefer relatively unfettered access to power, the ability to shift and shape the truth through ‘alternative facts’ and the denigration of the critical press. Trump’s ability to capitalise on this can encourage many others to attempt similar routes.

Such mechanisms will find adherents in the ‘big men’ club of global leaders like Turkey’s Erdogan who, the Philippines’ Duterte, South Africa’s Jacob Zuma or Russia’s Putin who will continue to find ways to enhance their grip on power with added justification and gusto.

Whilst some global leaders might dislike Trump’s policies, like Jacob Zuma, they might still admire his methodology of rule and execution. Trump will therefore provide succour to those who practice ‘illiberal democracy’ whatever their ideological orientation might be.

Autocrats will delight in the strong-man tactics of Trump and see him as a role model – especially since he emanates from a transparent and accountable democracy like the US. Trump’s appeal here is precisely that he can forge a demagogic path from within the sanctity of one of the world’s greatest democracies.

Liberals too will face interrogation over Trump. Defining oneself in relation to Trump’s social policies will increasingly become the norm. Already a host of global leaders such as Canada’s Justin Trudeau have distanced themselves from the immigration issues. Even Theresa May and Angela Merkel were forced to publicly rebuke Trump whilst a host of other government and opposition representatives from South Africa to Indonesia were quick to express themselves on the issue.

Whilst some political leaders will take a moral stand on an issue-by-issue basis, many will see this as an opportunity to define a new political morality for themselves. Distancing yourself from Trump’s actions is a useful way to show your social conscience credentials – especially if you’re running for office and out for votes in a multi-cultural environment.

And finally, Relations between third parties can also be affected by taking a positon on Trump. The US/Mexico border wall will stir global controversies as is already evident in Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu’s confrontation with Mexico’s foreign ministry. Little did Israel expect that a comment in favour of the wall from its political leadership would be regarded as an insult to the Mexicans. Netanyahu too can hasten settlement construction and exacerbate existing tensions with the Palestinians on the pretext of support from Trump.

The strident nationalism from the White House now threatens to hasten a ripple effect of political positioning across the planet. Whilst Americans are likely to be all consumed with their domestic political theatre, the drama unfolding in far-flung regions of the world might be just as contentious.

Daniel Silke is Director of the Political Futures Consultancy based in Cape Town, South Africa. He is a noted expert on South African, African and Global political economy issues and is an acclaimed keynote speaker. For bookings, contact info@danielsilke.com.

This article was first published by Business Day Live/Rand Daily Mail in South Africa.