Twenty-Two Years Later, Let’s See If These Predictions Are Holding Up- An Admittedly Cherrypicked Look-Back at “Dictionary of the Future”

Predictions are a public invitation to play “gotcha.” But once you’re that exposed – as when #faithpopcorn and I opened ourselves up with our “dictionaryofthefuture” back in the distant days of 2001 – you might as well wrap up the year with a few counter-gotcha examples.

So, to close out 2022, here are twenty-one examples of accurate futurism that were particularly noteworthy this year.

We’ll leave it to you to buy the book to discover where we crashed on the shoals of tomorrow.    

Craft Electric Vehicles is how we described a new generation of electric cars that “will bypass the conventional dealer structure and will be sold on the Internet.”  An on-the-nose prediction of Tesla and its peers.

Also, an accurate prediction of a broader trend, as Ford announced in 2022 that it wants all its EV sales to be online, and not through its dealer network. This was surprisingly un-noted, a trend spoor.

“Unobtrusive Computing” and the IoT it described were science fiction back in 200l, as readers struggled to imagine what we described as a “future in which computer power is seamlessly embedded in dozens of everyday objects from coffee cups to eyeglasses to clothing.” 

 A company called Wiliot is doing just that, and as this CNBC story reports, the technology will also have a profound impact on climate change, and their IoT Pixels can track the logistics of the supply chain and reduce food waste.  Disclaimer: I am a consultant to Wiliot, which is a lovely synergy between the “Dictionary of the Future” and the opportunities of the present.

“Quantum Computing” has been part of the conversation since 2001,  when we described an “entirely new way of building computers which use “atomic particles, which are known as ‘qubits’ and can be manipulated to represent one and zero…”

But the chatter is intensifying, as IBM says that 2023 will be a quantum computing inflection point, and the Economist notes that because the tech can be used to break into secure software, “you can’t afford to ignore quantum computing.”

“Comparative Anxiety”  We wrote “the Internet creates a networked world that allows everybody to compare everything, instantly … This ability to benchmark yourself in seconds will create an epidemic of comparative anxiety—a national wave of insecurity.”

And I need to point out that this future state was recognized before Facebook launched. “The Research is In: Facebook Mom Groups Really Do Stress Women Out,” wrote the Wall Street Journal.

 A major study by MIT also found that “Facebook access leads to more anxiety and depression” with the “researchers positing that social comparison with peers is behind those results, and it grows stronger as people are exposed to Facebook for greater lengths.”

“Digital Art” was on no one’s radar when we wrote that “Internet art will become the darling collectible of the digital generation—which will have enormous implications for the way art is distributed and displayed; static, wall-based art will give way to new viewing modes.” If that doesn’t sound like NFTS – two decades before the concept was remotely present – I’ll buy your Bored Ape a bunch of bananas.

“Indentured Studenthood” seemed preposterous when “Dictionary of the Future” predicted that “students will raise money for their education by selling a portion of their future earnings to investors” But we recognized there would be innovative solutions to the crushing costs of education.

And lo and behold, in December of 2022, Reuters wrote of a young man named Spencer Segal enrolled at Stanford Law School, who chose not graduate with “more than $200,000 in student loans, and is now on track to get his law degree with zero traditional law school debt. Instead, he will pay 10% of his income for 12 years in exchange for $170,000 upfront. Segal is among the 20 inaugural fellows of Flywheel Fund for Career Choice — the first “income share agreement” program offered by a U.S. law school.”

 “Slave Reparations” were far outside the mainstream conversation when we foretold that  “slave reparations could become a passionate, and probably divisive, national debate.” It is happening. Just this year, “Detroit’s city council unanimously approved how it would structure the city’s first reparations task force.” Other cities and states are following along; California named a commission to investigate the matter in 2020, and this year they released a 500-page interim study.

 “Geriborg” It was thrilling to read that New York City bought more than 800 new “robot buddies.” Called ElliQ, they are designed to assist people 65 and older who live alone.

How could this not put me in mind of a world populated by geriborgs, which we coined from the Greek “geri” for old, and “borg” for trusty old cyborg? The New York Times picked this up in their review of the book.

 The dictionary entry explained it as “a robot built with technology that assists the physically disabled.  In a way, the depersonalization of robot care reduces the indignities that are part of the process of aging; and—unexpectedly—their tangle of microprocessors can even provide a kind of companionship.”

Moving on to another robot family prognostication, let’s look at the Cobot.

We foresaw this happily collaborative partnership, writing of a “unique kind of robot, designed to work directly with a human being within “a shared workspace”… Rather than threatening to put humans out of work, friendly cobots are collaborative. ”

 Last year, Digital Journal estimated that the market for them should reach $13.4 billion by 2026. It’s exciting when the companies that are poised to profit from this – like Universal  Robots and Techman Robot – didn’t even exist when the trend was identified.

 “Iron Fertilization” as method for addressing climate change was on the thin edge of reality back in 2002. Nonetheless we described it as “a controversial but potentially breakthrough method of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Supertankers start by distributing millions of tons of iron in the ocean. The iron encourages the growth of algae that feed on carbon dioxide. When the algae die (of overeating) they sink, bloated, to the bottom of the ocean, taking the carbon dioxide with them. ”

 Well, flash forward and in November of 2022 the Department of Energy published a report which affirmed that “The urgent need to remove excess carbon dioxide from Earth's environment could include enlisting some of our planet's smallest inhabitants.”

 “Consumer Serfs” was how we described and foretold the inevitable trend of the manipulative ways in which “retailers—restaurants included—turn customers into workers. We clear our own tables, add our own condiments, bag our purchases to speed our way out of the store.” 

Since this phenomenon was identified, its encroachment has been pervasive. 

Earlier this year, writing about “tech-enabled grocery” stores, McKinsey noted that “When properly implemented, tech-enabled self-checkout can improve in-store productivity by 6 to 12 percent by reducing the labor hours required for operation.”

“Sponsored Weddings” seemed greedily opportunistic back when the book was written; the reciprocal phenomenon was described as “couples get free or reduced-cost wedding services—flowers, caterers, limos, photographers—in exchange for allowing providers to discreetly promote their businesses during the affair.”

 The insight was that a world in which everything is marketable, and shame is subsiding, would lead to this nuptial branding. And in actuality, thanks to Instagram this phenomenon exploded last year. Here’s how one couple described their experience:

 “My husband and I sat down and mapped out our connections and relationships we’d made with brands,” Robert told The Post of her conversation with hubby Mark Huntsinger, 33, who is a physical therapist and TikTok influencer with over 122,000 followers. “We said, ‘Is there a way we can make it work for both of us?'”

“Extinction Savings Banks” imagined a world where we would “preserve the raw material of endangered species …  until such time that cloning and recombinant DNA techniques allow them to be economically re-created.” In other words, “de-extinction.”

 Bingo. Peter Thiel and George Church founded Colossal Biosciences to bring back the wooly mammoth, and Newsweek wrote in December of 2022 that “Wooly mammoth hybrids could be roaming earth in just five years.”

 “Clean Label Foods” I’d mark this a top-20  prediction for the undeniable relevance it achieved. “Dictionary of the Future” proclaimed that “natural and preservative-free aren’t enough anymore. The next trend is clean label foods—a larger promise that includes products that are free of genetically-modified ingredients, that aren’t overly processed or packaged and that run no risk of contamination.”

A Google search will demonstrate the accuracy of this prognostication.  In November of last year, the 2022 “Clean Label Conference” observed that “Consumer demand for clean label foods remains one of the top food trends of 2022.”

 “Restorative Justice” This is another Top Twenty prediction, as the practice of balancing the needs of victims, society, and our concept of justice has emerged from the margins. We explained it as “an inclusive term which captures a trend that includes both victim’s rights and alternative sentencing which requires that criminals perform community service. Its core principle is that justice should not just punish the offender, but should attempt to offset the damage, treating society like an ecosystem where the balance needs to be restored.”

“Unmanned Vehicles” Drones have been around for a while, but their role in the war in Ukraine encourage us to put this entry on our 2022 relevance leaderboard. We described them as “the future of combat … aircraft vehicles that can fight and win battles without anyone piloting or driving them—or risking their lives.

“Space Funds” Predicted to be “investment vehicles focused entirely on space and space exploration. They will include public companies—such as SpaceHab—and privately held firms that focus on areas such as RLVs (reusable launch vehicles), space tourism, biochemical research and the like.”

This was going way out on a limb, given that it was long before Musk’s SpaceX, Branson’s Virgin Galactic, and the massive privatization we are seeing now.  In November of 2022, McKinsey created a white paper on the subject, writing – in ego-puffing validation of what was predicted 22 years ago, that “…a rising number of new entrants in the space sector have tapped into this significant and growing investor interest to pursue spin-offs, partnerships, and private-investment rounds.

These entrants have used the wave of private and public capital to fund their product road maps and become first movers in an expanding set of commercial opportunities in space.”

“Road-Pricing” or “congestion pricing” has New York City caught in a messy quarrel;  as we predicted; “the debates we will be loud.”

Back in 2001, the concept we described the concept as “a radically different way to look at the way roads are used, and how we pay for them.” 

We also rightly predicted that technology would make possible what would otherwise be theoretical, writing “the basic theory is that public policy should be used to encourage drivers to use highways when there is less traffic. Until recently, this subject has kept economists busy, but had little practical value because there was no way to implement the solutions, whether heroic or hare-brained. But now, computerized tolls and smart roads make it possible to track your movement, making these road-pricing innovations very real.”

“Food Macho.”   Described as “the courage to consume foods that others find objectionable … it takes food macho to chow down on insects in America, even though entomophagy—consumption of bugs—is enjoyed worldwide … we expect a few adventurous restaurants—always prowling for newness—to start featuring insect-based dishes.”

 Today, insect restaurants, as well as insects on the menu, are expanding rapidly – including a Michelin-starred one.  “Insects are the new beef” declares this headline; Chef Joseph Yoon of Brooklyn Bugs leads the change in our perspective.

 While we confess we didn’t predict the pandemic, we did see that the boom in telecommuting would trigger “telesprawl, characterized as “an unintended consequence of telecommuting. Freed from the daily grind, office-liberated workers relocate beyond typical commuting range, creating new kinds of environmental stresses and strains in formerly rural neighborhoods. When Agways are replaced by Starbucks, blame telesprawl.”

If you’ve been reading  about the stresses on local communities in the Hudson Valley, consider yourself up-to-date on 2001.

 “Second Chance Theory” little discussed back then,  is the belief that the children of the wealthy have more chances to fail, because “If a kid from the inner city is arrested for shoplifting, or drunk driving, or smoking a joint, it’s just about impossible for him or her to bounce back.”

 Two-plus decades later, some recognition and recompense have been secured,  as New York State is giving its first 150 marijuana licenses to those who served time for possession.

That seems like a great way to wrap this up. May you all have second chances in 2023.