UAE-ISRAELI-INDIAN TRIANGLE IN REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE.

The US-brokered peace deal between UAE and Israel, signed in August 2020 followed by Bahrain-Israel peace deal, carries with it far-reaching effects not only in the Middle East but also neighbouring countries of UAE like Iran and Pakistan.  The peace deal between both the countries had blessings of Saudi Arabia which was demonstrated through the permission of Saudi Arabia to use its space by the Israeli plane to fly to the UAE.  This was an unprecedented move both on the part of Saudi Arabia and UAE as the whole Muslim world plunged into a shock by this move, especially the Palestinians.  In a bitter reaction to the agreement, Palestinian leadership cited it as “betrayal of Jerusalem” and as an “aggression against the Palestinian people”.  The agreement was also condemned by most of the Muslim countries including Iran, Turkey and Libya.   Not surprisingly, however, the Arab League refused to condemn the UAE-Israel Agreement.  

The peace deal between UAE and Israel did not occur overnight but both the countries had been in secret contact for years and cooperated with each other in several sectors including intelligence sharing and joint military exercises.  The relations between both the countries remained cold for several decades but in 2010, their joint rival Iran played a role of catalyst to bring both countries closer.  With President Obama’s vacation of office, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu concentrated on President Trump to embrace his policy of transforming the politics of Middle East through a coalition with Saudi Arabia and UAE and to diminish the world’s attention to the cause of Palestinian state.

A thaw in the relations between Israel and UAE occurred in 2009 when both the Israeli and the UAE Ambassadors in the USA met and urged President Obama to take a tough stand against Iran.  In September 2012, Israeli Prime Minister and UAE Foreign Minister met with each other in New York.  Although both the leaders discussed the threat of Iran yet UAE was reluctant from openly admitting the relations with Israel without progress in the Israel-Palestine peace process.

The peace accord between both the countries is claimed to have been made on the conditions that Israel would halt its plan to annex parts of the West Bank and the Jordan valley.  However, Israeli Prime Minister, in a statement, stated that the plan was only delayed as part of the normalisation deal with UAE but it is still on the table.  The peace deal between Israel and UAE is, in fact, aimed at expanding diplomatic, trade and security cooperation in the region, under so-called “Strategic Middle East Agenda”, as per the joint statement issued after the agreement.  Bahrain was the first Arab country which had openly supported and welcomed the Israel-UAE peace deal.  

The joint statement issued after the agreement has highlighted the underlying objectives under the so-called “Strategic Middle East Agenda”, wherein the USA, Israel and UAE have highlighted the threats in the region and to counter those threats collectively.  

Bahrain followed the suit and announced the normalisation of its relations with Israel on 11 September 2020 and became fourth Arab country to normalise its relations with Israel after Egypt, Jordan and UAE.  Like UAE, Bahrain was already in covert contact with Israel since 2017 when the King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa met with Israeli leaders in the USA and it announced opposition to boycott of Israel by Arab countries.   It may be remembered that Bahrain houses USA’s Naval Regional Headquarters and it was expected of Bahrain that under the pressure of the USA, Bahrain would soon recognise State of Israel to please the USA.  Bahrain equally perceives the threats of Iran’s increasing influence in the region, especially in Bahrain when Shia population revolted against the King and Saudi Arabia supported him against the uprising in 2011.  Bahrain felt it expedient to have a powerful ally like Israel to counter its perceived threats from Iran.   It is believed that Bahrain could have not taken the same route as the UAE did, without the blessings of Saudi Arabia.  The Palestinians termed it another “betrayal” by another Arab country.  Bahrain, however, faced severe internal opposition to its decision to recognise and make any agreement with Israel.

Even though Saudi Arab maintained that it would not take the same steps yet it is a matter of time as to when Saudi Arabia would follow the suit.  The support of Saudi Arabia to the Israel and UAE deal and Israel and Bahrain deal could be seen in the background of the threat of US Donald Trump to the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (popularly known as MBS), when he called him on 2 April 2020 asking him to cut the production of oil otherwise the USA would be obliged to upend the 45-year long strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, which meant the withdrawal of US troops from Saudi Arabia.  This Strategic Alliance between both the countries was forged when Saudi King Abdul Aziz met US President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945 on a US Navy ship.  This alliance meant US military protection in exchange for the US access to Saudi oil reserves.  Today, there are three thousand US military troops in Saudi Arabia besides protection of oil export from the region by the US First Fleet. President Donald Trump was blunt and undiplomatic in telling Saudi Arabia that it would not survive “for two weeks” without the support of the USA.  

Israel through peace treaties with both UAE and Bahrain has achieved multiple goals.  Firstly, it has been able to neutralise the Arab world vis-à-vis Palestine issue and now this cause has taken a lower place in the priorities list of Arab countries.  Once the opposition of Arab countries to the State of Israel is diminished, it would be in a stronger position to deal with the Palestinian leadership as well as its allies like Hezbollah.  The demand and concept of two-States seem to have been faded away, at least for the time being.  Secondly, Israel is now more close to its arch-rival Iran while having its strong presence in the Middle East.  It is not only Israel which considers Iran as its arch-rival but both Saudi Arabia and UAE also take it as their enemy.  The joint statement issued after the UAE-Israel peace agreement has clearly indicated that with the USA, UAE and Israel would jointly counter the threats in the region.  It is everybody’s guess as to what are those threats in the region. 

It may not be the intentions of the UAE, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia to include Pakistan in the list of regional threats but facts remain that Israel does not have any sympathetic views about Pakistan.  The effective presence of India in Bahrain,  UAE and Saudi Arabia and its close ties with Israel should have been a matter of concern for Pakistan.  Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi granted 11 hectares of land for construction of a Hindu Mandar to be completed in 2020.  UAE is home of 3.3 million Indians.  India Minister for Railway, Commerce and Industries, Mr Piyush Goyal, confirmed in September 2019 that UAE had pledged $ 75 billion investment in India.

Saudi Arabia and the Middle Eastern countries failed to condemn the lockdown of the Muslim population of Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir since August 2019 and its abuse of human rights of the people.    Turning a blind eye to the miseries of the people of Jammu & Kashmir, especially the majority of the Muslim population by Saudi Arabi can be seen in the backgrounds of its investment in India.  In the year 2019, Saudi Arabia’s State-owned oil company ARAMCO agreed to buy 20% of petroleum-related shares of India’s Reliance Industries, worth $ 15 billion.   The Saudi Ambassador in India announced in September 2019 that Saudi Arabia was looking to invest $  110 billion in India’s petrochemical, infrastructure, mining and other areas.   Saudi Arabia in no way wanted to put its heavy investment in India at stake by voicing against the human rights abuse by India. 

The rivalry between Pakistan and India has a history of 73 years old since the partition of India and independence of Pakistan in 1947.  The major bone of contention between Pakistan and India remained the issue of State of Jammu & Kashmir.  

Over years, India had developed closer ties with Afghanistan, Iran and Israel. India has signed a defence deal with Israel quite recently worth millions of dollars amid its increasingly strained relations with China and Pakistan and other neighbouring countries. The government of BJP led by Mr Modi has taken an aggressive posture against Pakistan and carried out 1,595violations of Line of Control (LoC) in one year alone costing lives of innocent people living along the LoC.  On the Western side of Pakistan, India established 24 Consulate offices in Afghanistan, majority of those along the Pak-Afghan border and Pakistan raised its concerned in 2016 that India was using these offices “to stir trouble in Balochistan” province of Pakistan, although Mr Olson, the then US Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, had termed this concern as being “overestimated” by Pakistan.  

However, Pakistan’s concerns for India’s involvement in Balochistan proved genuine when Pakistan security agencies arrested an Indian Naval officer Mr Kulbhushan Jadav, in Quetta, on 3 March 2016 while crossing over from Iran.  He was based in Iran under a fake name.  He confessed to have been working for Indian Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) for carrying out terrorist activities in Balochistan as well in Karachi.  He admitted to having contacts with terrorist organisations in Pakistan to carry out terrorist activities in Pakistan.  

Whether Israel and Pakistan see each other as an enemy or not yet there had been reports that during 1980s Israel planned an attack on Pakistani nuclear installations at Kahuta in collaboration with India as it did not want “an Islamic bomb”.  The general perception of the people of Pakistan vis-à-vis relations with Israel has always been negative, therefore, the debate about relations with Israel had merely been taken place.  Pakistan does not recognise Israel in support of the cause of Palestinians for a separate country and not for any other reason.  The implications of the UAE-Bahrain-Israel agreement to normalise their relations vis-à-vis Pakistan need to be seen in the background of 25 years old diplomatic relations of India with Israel.  What side would Israel take in the wake of any conflict between Pakistan and India, would manifest if Israel was not an enemy of Pakistan?  However, Israeli presence in UAE would now be only 1,717 km away from Pakistan. 

The relations between Iran and neighbouring Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and Israel prior to the 1979 Revolution had been very cordial.  These relations took a drastic turn in the opposite direction when exiled Iranian cleric Ayatollah Khomeini toppled the Shah regime and took over the reign of the country.  In reaction to the decision of the then US President Jimmy Carter allowing the deposed Shah to come to the USA for cancer treatment, a group of students stormed the US Embassy and took more than 60 US diplomats and civilians as hostages on 4 November 1979 which lasted till 20 January 1981. It laid the foundation of rivalry between Iran and USA which were once close ally in the region.  Since then, the US Administration had placed sanctions against Iran on numerous occasions, mainly because of the threat of Iran going nuclear.   Similarly, not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries are fearful of, inter alia,  nuclear threats from Iran. 

After the Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia and surrounding Arab countries also felt threatened of the perceived export of Shia theology to their countries resulting in a bloody proxy war between Saudi Arabia/UAE and Iran.  Both the rival groups/countries chose Pakistan as the battleground, thanks to the then military dictator Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, for his anti-Shia policies and supporting the Deobandi oriented militancy in the country.  

Although Iran was the first country of the world to recognise Pakistan as an independent state yet it retained its close relations with India.  India kept on developing closer relations with Iran despite the fact that it did not support the Iranian Revolution of 1979.  Even in the wake of US sanctions on Iran, India kept on importing oil from Iran but due to Mr Modi’s relations with President Trump – both representing far-right,  cut short its oil import after May 2020 from Iran.   A severe setback to the relations between India and Iran occurred in May 2020 when Iran decided to go ahead with its rail project without India as India was lagging behind in terms of investment in the project.  Despite its cordial and close relations with Iran and its commitment to invest in the development of Chabahar port and laying rail track to connect Afghanistan and consequently to the Central Asian States, India succumbed to the pressure of USA to cut its investment in Iran.  

India had entered in the project of Chabahar in May 2016 with the sole aim of bypassing Pakistan to transit its good to Afghanistan and to other central Asian states and to counterbalance the importance of Gwadar port in Balochistan province.  In 2017, India sent the first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan through Chabahar port and in December 2018, it took over the operation of the port. 

The relations between India and Iran further started worsening when Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted on 2 May 2020 condemning “the wave of organised violence against Indian Muslims”, which infuriated the Indian Government to the extent that it summoned Iranian envoy to reprimand him.  Not surprisingly, India called it an “internal matter” but Irani Supreme Leader through his tweet of 5 May 2020 again warned India that if India did not stop the massacre of Indian Muslims, it may lead to the isolation of India from the Muslim world.

The India-Iran-Afghanistan three-way memorandum of understanding plans, inter alia, contained at least $21bn commitment for Chabahar-Hajigak (Afghanistan) corridor. Interestingly, $11bilion Hajigak iron and steel mining projects were secured by seven Indian companies in central Afghanistan.     

The ouster of India from Chabahar project paved the way for China to enter Iran with a commitment of US$ 400 billion investment in Iran over 25 years in return of heavily discounted oil from Iran.  The unilateral withdrawal of the USA from JCPOA and enforcing new sanctions against Iran was bound to affect the economy of Iran and the promised investment of China in Iran, in fact, infused a new life in the Iranian economy.   Strategically, investment of China in Iran was to supplement the Iranian economy and to put its feet at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz, besides strengthening its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and CPEC project.  India had already opposed both Sino-Pak CPEC project and BRI claiming that it directly “impinges on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India”.  Surprisingly, India is not averse to the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor under China’s BRI. Amidst tensions with China, India also cancelled its contract with a Chinese company to supply Rail Mounted Quay Cranes (RMQC) for Chabhar port at the cost of $ 29.8 million.   

However, China has, besides Iran, four trade partners in the Middle East which include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Israel which are US allies in the region.    The presence of China in Iran and its trade alliance with major allies of the USA in the Middle East is direct defiance of US hegemony in the region.  Although the USA, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia have teamed up against Iran being their enemy one yet the fact is that all its allies are also trading partners of China.  Would China become a blocking stone in the way of all hostile countries of Iran but its own trade and strategic partners?  Would India, arch-rival of China and Pakistan, although having close relations with the Arab countries and Israel, be able to convince all these countries to go against China and Pakistan?  

On the other hand, the increasing influence of Russia in Syria and in the Arab countries and its improving relations with China may turn into an anti-US block in the region.  Russia has also close ties with Iran and is its strategic partner as well.   The closely developing relations between Pakistan and Turkey may also prove another reckoning force in the region as Turkey too maintains close economic and trade relations with Iran.   As the relations between UAE-Israel and Bahrain-Israel would develop over time, the methodology to counter the common threats in the region would become clearer.  

However, in the presence of China, Russia and Turkey having their interests in Iran and in Pakistan, besides looming presidential elections in the USA, the future of the alliance of Middle Eastern countries with Israel may not prove as effective as it was perceived at the time of forging it.  It is, however, feared that this alliance or peace deals may not lead the world to another wave of the cold war.