THE US-AFGHAN TALIBAN AGREEMENT: OPTIMISM VS PESSIMISM

A peace agreement between the USA and the Afghan Taliban has been signed at Doha, Qatar, on 29th February 2020, after over 18-years non-ending war.  This peace deal has, on one hand, attracted optimism for lasting peace in a country which had been under constant war since the invasion of erstwhile USSR forces, and on the other hand, raised concerns over its success. The war between ‘Mujahideen’ and Afghan-Soviet forces had compelled millions of Afghan people to take refuge either in Pakistan or in Iran.  Pakistan has, since then, gone under tremendous pressures and upheavals due to financial burden on its already fragile economy.  The mass exodus of Afghan refugees to Pakistan also contributed negatively in terms of law and order situation in the country.  

The abrupt abandonment of ‘once darling Mujahideen’ by the US and its allies and leaving the mess created by it in Afghanistan and in Pakistan in the shape of refugees and Afro-Arab militants, created serious security situation in both the countries.  Afghanistan plunged into a bloody civil war where the Taliban and the Northern Alliance comprising of Uzbek, Tajiks and Hazaras, engaged in fighting to seize the power.  Eventually, the Taliban seized major part of Afghan territory and established its ‘Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan’.     The 9/11 incident changed hearts vis-à-vis Afghan Mujahideen, now known as Taliban and USA entered in Afghanistan once again but this time not as a friend by as a foe.  The US-sponsored ‘war on terror’ further aggravated the security situation in the region, especially in Pakistan.  The participation of Pakistan in this ‘war on terror’ ignited the hostility of local militant groups against the State and its security personnel.  Pakistan lost over 70000 lives and billions of dollars in terms of economy.  

The people of Pakistan have taken a sigh of relief with the signing of the peace agreement between the USA and the Afghan Taliban and are optimistic about lasting peace in the neighbouring country.  They are optimistic about the honourable return of Afghan refugees whose third generation was born in Pakistan.  They are optimistic about the reduction of terrorist attacks and eventually getting rid of terrorism from the country.  In the background of dreadful events which had taken place in Afghanistan and Pakistan for over two decades, the hope for peaceful days ahead is a natural and genuine gesture.

While believing in optimism about the success of the peace agreement, one also needs to appreciate the ground realities – vis-à-vis outcome and future of the agreement.  Although the agreement has provided an opportunity to the USA to exit from Afghanistan after losing hundreds of lives of its soldiers and billions of dollars without seeing any light at the end of the tunnel yet this deal has once again driven Afghanistan into an impending state of civil war where the Taliban would be stretching their muscles not only against the Afghan Government headed by Dr Ashraf Ghani but also against the erstwhile Northern Alliance - one of the arch-enemies of the Taliban. The tussle between Dr Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, unless resolved with compromises, would be another factor contributing towards civil war in the country.

Let's us also not forget the huge stake of India in Afghanistan. It has made a huge investment in Afghanistan and has created close relations with Afghan NDS against Pakistan.  It has created a huge terrorist network besides infiltration in the ranks of Daesh in Afghanistan,  which India uses against Pakistan through false flag operations.  The power vacuum created due to the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan would provide an opportunity to India to step in with its military might to support ani-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan. 

Surprisingly, the agreement was signed between the USA and the Afghan Taliban where the Afghan Government was not a party to it and thus technically it is not obliged to follow the provisions of the agreement.  Immediately after the agreement, the Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani announced that the release of Taliban prisoners cannot be made pre-conditions for the start of the ‘Intra-Afghan negotiations’, whereas the agreement stipulates the time frame for the release of the prisoners by both the relevant parties.  The most important question is whether or not the Afghan Government of Dr Ashraf Ghani be able to sustain the expanding and re-energised power of the Taliban.  They are rightly boasting of their achievements through the signing of an agreement with the power which had been inimical towards them since the 9/11 incident.  They have been able to make the mention of ‘Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan’ in the agreement, although the USA repeatedly stated in the agreement that it does not recognise it.

The refusal by the Afghan President to release Taliban prisoners could be seen as an attempt to frustrate the agreement – either at his own or through instigation by India.  President Trump’s pledge to return to Afghanistan with more might in case of failure of the agreement itself speaks voluminously.   He is aware of the fact that the peace agreement with the Taliban is a fragile one and a test for his credibility not only as a signatory to the agreement but also as a head of a superpower.  

The impending civil war in Afghanistan would once again affect Pakistan in terms of economy and law & order situation due to the influx of more refugees.  Pakistan needs to be watchful of the events taking place in Afghanistan post-agreement scenario.