Ukraine and Taiwan; Not Similar

After Putin decided to invade Ukraine to avert what he considers to be threats against Russia's national security, many have tried to equate the situation with the relations between China and Taiwan. To them, China may invade Taiwan in a similar fashion.

Yes, China may invade Taiwan, however, there are more technical justifications for that relative to what is happening in Ukraine.

Taiwan has indisputably been part of China for thousands of years. It only became a de-facto autonomous territory after the Communists had won the civil war they had with the Nationalists. The Nationalist government fled and occupied the Island (Taiwan)in 1949. In contrast, Ukraine, even though had been part of imperial Russia, was 'granted' independence and subsequently became a sovereign state.

Taiwan is not recognized by the United Nations to be a sovereign state. Its security is only ambiguously guaranteed by the United States in a 1979 bilateral arrangement. Ukraine is a sovereign state that has a seat in the United Nations as a full member.

China is dealing an Island which invasion will require a sophisticated amphibious operation that may be quite a herculean task to pull off. Ukraine on the other hand shares land boundary with Russia creating multiple geographical corridors for invasion.

Also, a comparative analysis of the defences of Taiwan and that of Ukraine shows significant differences. While Ukraine have over the years used Russian and Soviet military equipment as main tools for its forces, Taiwan has mostly used US armaments for a long time. That is, China will be facing mostly unfamiliar weapons relative to what Russia had experienced early on in Ukraine. Taiwan already has the most advanced fighter jet of the US; the F-35.

Again, while the United States has conveniently avoided Russia by using the technicality of Ukraine not being a NATO member, it has a quasi-alliance with Taiwan that may force it into direct confrontation with China should an invasion occur.

Another misconception is that, Taiwan is too close to mainland China that the United States may not have allies to support it in any confrontation. That is far from certain. China has its own frictions with countries in the neighbourhood who are/have become friends with the United States. Japan and Vietnam are notable among these.

In case the United States enters into a conflict with China over Taiwan, recent meteoric advancements in Chinese hypersonic technology may be dangerous to US aircraft carriers that may venture into the area. In fact China can hit US bases in the Pacific.

By: Fidel Amakye Owusu

NB: I first posted an earlier unedited version of this piece on my Facebook wall on 12/03/2022.