American weapons are making a difference on the frontline, but thus far, they have been unable to halt the Russian offensive. Delays in military transfers and hesitations regarding the range of permitted strikes for Ukrainian forces have negatively affected Ukraine's situation. Recently, Putin claimed that Russia has increased its ammunition production by more than 20 times (without specifying the time frame) and asserted that Russia possesses superior aviation and armored vehicle technology compared to the West. How correct is that?
Military transfers to Ukraine:
- On June 9, France transferred new batches of weapons, ammunition, VAB armored personnel carriers, vehicles, and boats to Ukraine.
- On June 7, the United States announced an aid package for Ukraine worth $225 million. The capabilities in this announcement include missiles for HAWK air defense systems; Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); 155mm Howitzers; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; 81mm mortar systems and other equipment.
- U.S. President Joe Biden for the first time publicly apologized to Ukraine for a monthslong congressional holdup in American military assistance that let Russia make gains on the battlefield.
- Biden stated that the US weapons will not be used to strike Moscow.
- Ukraine received the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems that the United States purchased in Jordan.
- On June 4, Italy announced that it will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine.
- On June 6, France announced that it will donate surplus Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters to Ukraine. Macron specified that the jets would be Mirage 2000-5s, which are optimized for air-to-air combat—and not older Mirage 2000Cs or air-to-ground Mirage 2000D attack jets.
- The Netherlands joined the initiative of Denmark and Sweden to purchase CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine. It is reported that the Dutch government has allocated about €400 million for the project.
- Netherlands completes secret military training for 300 Ukrainian marines.
- Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training, saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv - Politico.
- The Government of Japan donated a batch of 101 vehicles for the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
- The UK and Latvia have opened the bidding for companies to supply FPV drones to Ukraine, on behalf of the Drone Capability Coalition.
- The Ukrainian army receives the latest innovations of the Finnish defense industry, some of which are still under development.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is scrapping plans to set up a five-year fund of military aid for Ukraine after facing pushback from alliance members, and is instead asking countries to keep up their current contributions - Bloomberg reported.
Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:
- The French-German defense giant KNDS (KMW+Nexter Defense Systems) has announced the creation of a Ukrainian subsidiary.
- Armored vehicle manufacturer Roshel plans to invest tens of millions of dollars to build a plant in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian company Skiftech developed a Stinger portable anti-aircraft missile system laser simulator.
- Ukraine is preparing to test a Ukrainian-made analog of "smart bomb", the US JDAM-ER.
- Putin claims Russia increased ammunition production by more than 20 times.
- Russians deploy S-300 air defense systems between residential buildings in occupied Crimea’s Sevastopol.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense has presented its new TOS-3 Drakon flamethrower system with an extended range for the first time.
- Russian enterprises have produced several variants of ground FPV “kamikaze” drones, aimed at demolishing defensive positions.
- Putin said Moscow could supply advanced weapons to certain regions to enable strikes against "sensitive" Western targets as a response if Ukraine strikes Russia with Western arms.
- Putin indirectly indicated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-provided weapons do not cross a supposed Russian "red line" that would result in Russian nuclear escalation - ISW.
- Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine on June 7 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces - ISW.
- Russian strikes have caused widespread damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will continue to face serious constraints on power generation capacity.
- On June 8, a Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia. The aircraft Su-57 was reportedly damaged after a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region in southern Russia, 589 kilometers from the front line.
- A drone attack on Russia’s North Ossetia was recorded for the first time on Saturday, 8 June. In the bay of Sevastopol, a naval drone attacked the facilities of the invaders.
- Ukrainian paratroopers used an FPV drone to destroy a Russian Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile system.
- On the night of June 6, a group of attack drones hit a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov region.
- On June 3, the Russian S-400 air defense system was hit by the Ukrainian troops in the Belgorod Oblast.
- NATO and Ukraine team up to boost defence innovation. The three-day NATO-Ukraine Defence Innovators Forum in Poland brought together over 400 participants from 17 countries, including 100+ startups, investors and researchers.
- Ukraine to launch registry of mine-affected areas. "Farmers will benefit by easily obtaining information on whether their lands are contaminated or cleared," - Economy Minister said.
- Ukraine uses over 110 types of vehicles on the battlefield. Among the producing countries are the USA, Germany, Sweden, Great Britain, Italy and others. More than a third of the automotive equipment samples are Ukrainian-made, including armored cars, trucks and electric motorcycles.
- France wants to finalize a coalition of countries to send military instructors to Ukraine.
- In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia (The Economist). The approval in April of the Biden administration’s $61bn military-support package, after six months of Congressional delay, is having an impact. In particular, the arrival of atacms ballistic missiles, with a range of 300km, means that Ukraine can now hit any target in Russian-occupied Crimea, with deadly effect.
- Eyewitness to war: The Russia-Ukraine ammunition gap (Paul Schwennesen for Geopolitical Intelligence Services). How accurate – and, indeed, how relevant – are reports that Russia is “tripling” the artillery production of Ukraine and its Western allies? It is impossible to know with certainty, but a sober assessment would place Russia far below a three-fold advantage. Western allies will likely respond to the ammunition gap in some inevitably wasteful ways. However, under a more adaptive framework, the West can more efficiently route resources in novel ways that will, if properly understood, more than balance the deficit.
- Putin Jugend 2.0: How Russia Recruits Ukrainian Children and Prepares Them for War (Yuriy Yuzich for Militarnyi). The Kremlin regime is providing military training to thousands of Ukrainian children through the activities of local branches of the so-called “Warrior” (Voyin in Russian) center, positioning itself as a “center for military-sports training and patriotic education of youth.” Simultaneously, Putin’s “Youth Army” initiative is unfolding. Yuriy Yuzich, a retired Major from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and an expert in youth policy, explains the essence and activities of the “Warrior” center.
- Fortifications put strain on already struggling farmers in Sumy Oblast (Alexander Khrebet for The Kyiv Independent). Many farmers in front-line regions are refraining from planting yet another season either due to the inherent danger posed by their mined lands or contaminated soils. But there are some, who are determined to keep working their land despite the huge risks.
- As Fighting Rages in Ukraine, a Struggle Is On for Artillery Supremacy (Maria Varenikova for The NYT). Ukrainian forces say U.S. shells are making a difference. Across the border, they say, Russia is trying to get its artillery nearer targets like the city of Kharkiv. The article offers a look at the state of the battlefield.
- Inside the Ukrainian Lab Exposing U.S. Chips in Russia’s Weapons (The WSJ). Data from RUSI, a British defense and security think-tank, reveals that 70% of foreign-made components found in 27 Russian weapons systems and military equipment used in the first four months of the war were made by American companies. WSJ’s Ian Lovett visits a specialized forensic laboratory in Kyiv that analyzes debris from Russian munitions to find out more.
