Ukraine's Arms Monitor #34: 19.08 - 25.08.2024

Ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day, the United States, Germany, Denmark, Latvia, and Lithuania announced new pledges of military support, including the IRIS-T systems, ammunition for HIMARS, large-caliber shells, drones, and other weaponry. Ukraine unveiled its new invention—a missile and drone hybrid called Palianytsia—and has already used it against Russian targets. The expectations are high! In addition to its successes inside Russia, Ukraine recently launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are still awaiting the lifting of restrictions on using long-range Western missiles on specific targets within Russia. According to analysis, removing these restrictions could lead to reconfigurations of Russian assets and alleviate the situation on several fronts in Ukraine, where Russian forces are currently advancing.

Military transfers to Ukraine and military cooperation:

• On August 23, the United States announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $125 million, will provide Ukraine with: counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions; ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition; Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances; small arms ammunition; demolitions equipment and munitions; and spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
• On August 19, Germany updated its lists of military aid to Ukraine with: 1 air defence system IRIS-T SLS; 14 000 rounds 155mm ammunition; 10 unmanned surface vessels; 26 reconnaissance drones VECTOR with spare parts; material for explosive ordnance disposal; 6 High Mobility Engineer Excavators; 1 armoured recovery vehicle Bergepanzer 2 with spare parts; 700 assault rifles MK 556; 10 precision rifles HLR 338 with 240,000 rounds ammunition; 50 rifles CR 308.
• Denmark announced a new aid package worth about DKK 783 million ($116 million) to support Ukraine’s military needs. The main funds will be directed to the purchase of new military equipment from the Ukrainian defense industry and international partners.
• Czech Republic will buy ammunition for Ukraine with income from frozen Russian assets. This will allow the Czech Republic to purchase hundreds of thousands of additional large-caliber shells for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Latvia prepared the largest batch of 1400 drones from local manufacturers to be sent to Ukraine. Latvia has pledged $126 million in military support to Ukraine this year and will help expand the Drone Coalition initiative.
• On August 24, Lithuania announced a new aid package for Ukraine, which includes drones, air defense missiles, and funds to purchase military equipment. Lithuania will allocate €35 million to purchase radars and mine clearance equipment for Ukraine.
• Norway awarded Ukraine with a licence to develop 155 mm shells and made a commitment to finance the project.
• The Dutch Ministry of Defense announced a contract with Robin Radar Systems to produce 51 UAV detection radars for Ukraine.
• The fourth training mission of the Ukrainian military to work with the Patriot air defense system has begun in Germany.
• The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will be held on Sept. 6

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Ukraine has a new long-range weapon: Palianytsia missile and drone hybrid. Zelensky said it has been already used against Russians. The photo of the new missile/drone was released in one of United24’s videos.
• Ukrainian drone company, DroneUA, has been awarded its third US government contract, marking the largest tender win in the company’s history. This latest contract solidifies DroneUA’s position as a federal contractor in the US, opening doors to further opportunities within the government sector.
• Ukraine is adding more protection to its US-provided Abrams tanks. The 31 Abrams tanks it received came without the most advanced armor. Ukraine's new shields aim to protect against drones and artillery in this intense conflict.
• Ukraine introduced an additional legislative tool to legalize illicit military-grade firearms.  Ukrainian Parliament has adopted in the second reading draft law No. 9538 on improving the procedure for the acquisition, declaration and handling of firearms.
• Defense Procurement Agency of the Ministry of Defense signed several agreements to purchase domestic drones, electronic warfare (EW), and communications equipment.
• The government has allocated an additional UAH 24 billion to purchase drones the Ukrainian Defense Forces need.

Russia and its allies:

• Belarus has started gathering significant number of troops, weaponry along Ukraine's border 'under guise of exercises,' Ukraine says.
• The U.S. sanctioned a long list of Chinese and Russian companies, as well as companies from the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Hong Kong, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. The U.S. sanctions are trying to disrupt the flow of microelectronics and computer numerical control items, or machine tools, to Russia — nonlethal technology.
• Russia launches new drone weapons against Kursk offensive. Now Russia is striking back with new drones guided by fiber optics which are immune to radio jamming. This is the first time such weapons have been used in combat.
• The Russian military started using World War II-era M-30 howitzers in the war against Ukraine.
• Russia has taken a new step in expanding its production capabilities for the new-generation Su-57 Felon fighter jet, with the construction of new facilities at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant (KnAAZ).
• Russian forces recently claimed to have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) in the Sumy region using an Iskander-M mobile ballistic missile. However, it has since emerged that the “destroyed” M270 was, in fact, a sophisticated decoy manufactured by the Czech company Inflatech.

Major developments:

• Ukraine withdraws from positions near Pokrovsk to avoid Russian encirclement.
• Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast. As of Aug. 20, the Ukrainian military said it controlled 1,263 square kilometers (488 square miles) and 93 settlements, including the town of Sudzha.
• On August 21, Ukraine said that it had destroyed Russian pontoon bridges with U.S.-made weapons to defend its incursion into Russia's Kursk region
• Ukrainian army spokesman said Moscow has pulled out “relatively small” number of troops to bolster Kursk against incursion.
• Russia makes false claim of Ukrainian chemical attack in Kursk region.
• Ukraine says it used US glide bombs in Russia’s Kursk region and has retaken some land in Kharkiv.
• On August 22, Ukraine launched counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast, advancing 2 square km.

Other news:

• Since the beginning of the large-scale aggression, the Russian army has used more than 9.6 thousand missiles and almost 14,000 attack drones. Over 2.4 thousand missiles and 9.2 thousand drones were destroyed by Ukraine's air defense systems - Ukraine said.
• Between March and August 2024, Molfar (Ukrainian OSINT agency) confirmed 35 Ukrainian attacks on Russian airbases and another five on airfields in Crimea. The GUR (32%) and the SBU (15%) conducted most attacks. Some operations were conducted jointly by several branches of the military. 
• Cyber specialists of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, together with the Ukrainian cyber community, carried out a large-scale attack on the information resources and cloud storage of large industrial facilities of the Russian Federation.
• On August 20-22, several unidentified, possibly Russian drones were spotted over the largest German industrial zone in Schleswig-Holstein, where a shutdown nuclear power plant is located. German prosecutors have launched an investigation.
• Ukraine and India will hold Joint Working Group meeting on military-technical cooperation.
• South Africa did not transfer artillery shells to Poland due to concerns that they would be sent to Ukraine, Polish media outlet Rzeczpospolita reported.

Opinion and analysis:

• Russian Offensive Campaign - ISW Assessment. There are at least 250 military and paramilitary objects in Russia within range of ATACMS missiles that the United States has provided Ukraine. The United States currently prohibits Ukrainian forces from using ATACMS missiles to strike military targets in Russia, however, and only allows strikes using US-provided HIMARS equipped with GMLRS — at maximum permitting Ukraine to strike only 20 out of the 250 objects it could strike with ATACMS. Only 17 of these 250 objects are airfields, and it is unlikely that the Russian military has redeployed assets away from all the other 233 objects to the same degree as it has reportedly done with aviation assets. The lifting of the current Western restrictions would generate a serious Ukrainian long-range strike threat that would force a decision point on the Kremlin and likely prompt the Russian military command to significantly reconfigure assets to protect against Ukrainian strikes.
• Which countries’ weapons is Ukraine using in Russia incursion? (Al Jazeera). Reports say several NATO countries, including UK and Germany, have allowed Ukraine to use their weapons in Kursk.
• Ukraine uses Kursk success to press Biden on lifting weapons restrictions (Paul McLeary and Erin Banco for Politico). Kyiv is using its battlefield success to launch a new pressure campaign on the U.S. to lift the last restrictions on the use of long-range weapons inside Russia. But at least for now, the White House still isn’t ready to do it. Politico reported that Russian officials have moved some targets out of range of Western-provided Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles and that Ukrainian forces only have a limited supply of these missiles.
• Some Ukraine Allies Are Failing to Follow Through on Air-Defense Pledges (Alberto Nardelli, Daryna Krasnolutska, and Donato Paolo Mancini for Bloomberg). Several NATO allies have yet to follow through with commitments they reaffirmed at the alliance’s summit in Washington last month, the people said on condition of anonymity. Those include pledges to send at least five additional long-range systems.
• Sweden's Pansarbandvagn 302 approved by Ukraine – but is it any good? (Chris York for Kyiv Independent). Ukraine announced on Aug. 19 that it had approved Sweden's Pansarbandvagn 302 (PBV 302) for delivery to its armed forces. It means some 300 of the vehicles should be in the hands of the Ukrainian army in the very near future. Until CV90s show up or some more Bradleys are donated, the gap is being plugged by older models such as the PBV 302.