Ukraine's Arms Monitor #48: 25.11 - 01.12.2024

Last week, both Ukraine and Russia approved their defense budgets for 2025, with Russia allocating three times as much to military purposes as Ukraine. Facing limited financial and human resources, Ukraine is focusing on quality, employing diverse mixes of munitions, and conducting long-range strikes on occupied Crimea and within Russian territory. Additionally, last week saw turbulent developments in countries like Georgia and Syria. While these conflicts may appear unrelated to Russia’s war in Ukraine, they, in fact, reflect an escalation of violence and a continuation of hostilities involving similar actors.

Military transfers to Ukraine:

• On November 29, Luxembourg allocated €80 million for the purchase of Ukrainian weapons for the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in 2025. As part of the procurement, the money will be allocated for drones, surveillance systems, and electronic warfare systems.
• On November 28, Norway increased its funding to support Ukraine to at least 35 billion Norwegian kroner (approximately $3.16 billion) by 2025. Of this amount, 22.5 billion Norwegian kroner (nearly $2 billion) will go toward military support, and 12.5 billion Norwegian kroner (approximately $1.1 billion) will be allocated to humanitarian and civilian aid.
• Bloomberg: Britain delivers a new batch of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
• The Netherlands delivered three new Patriot air defense launchers to Ukraine.
• Ukraine will receive over $28 billion in defense support from allies in 2025. See the list of key sources of support here.
• South Koreans remain widely opposed to directly supplying arms to Ukraine, recent polls show, despite renewed international requests from Kyiv and allied capitals. Gallup Korea poll showed in October that 82% of South Koreans opposed sending military aid to Ukraine.
• Seven European countries pledge to increase military assistance for Ukraine. The list of countries includes Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden.
• Ukraine requested equipment for 10 military brigades to counter Russia, but the West has fully equipped only 2.5 brigades - Zelensky.
• EU delivered 1 million shells to Ukraine, fulfilling the pledge. There is no estimate for 2025 yet.
• Germany plans to transfer 30 GEREON RCS ground drones to Ukraine by the end of the year.
• The Royal Netherlands Navy has decommissioned the Alkmaar-class minesweeper Makkum (M857), which will be transferred to the Ukrainian Navy.

Military cooperation projects of Ukraine:

• The Finnish defense and security technology group Summa Defence Ltd is establishing a drone production facility in Finland in collaboration with its Ukrainian partners. The purpose is to rapidly increase production capacity for drones used in combat in Ukraine, while also introducing industrial-scale drone production in Finland and Europe. Widescale drone production is planned to begin in the first half of 2025.
• American companies, IronNet and Asterion Systems, tested their newest interceptor drone, the Hitchhiker, in Ukraine.
• According to reports, V-BAT drones, secretly tested in Ukraine, are set to be manufactured in India. V-BAT drones, developed by the American company Shield AI, can carry up to 11 kg of payload, stay airborne for 10 hours, and use AI to detect and recognize targets

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Zelensky signed the defence budget for 2025. Ukraine plans to spend 2.2 trillion hryvnias ($53.7 billion), or about 26% of its gross domestic product, on defence and security next year, officials said.
• Ukraine wants to raise $10 billion for arms production under the ZBROYARI initiative, which is already supported by ten partner countries.
• Ukraine approves homemade Oncilla-Shturm armored personnel carrier for military use.
• Buntar Aerospace aims to be the "Cadillac of Ukrainian surveillance drones," with a premium quality, repeat usage product that diverges majorly from the cheap one-time kamikaze drones.
• Ukraine is actively working on developing its own guided aerial bombs.
• The MiNiON-Bob electronic warfare system testing device was presented in Ukraine. The compact and portable device is designed to monitor electronic warfare equipment in the 720-1040 MHz frequency range, including FPV and similar UAVs.

Russia and its allies:

• The Russian military is considering establishing a dedicated drone systems service as part of the Ministry of Defense's efforts to catch up with Ukraine’s advanced Drone Forces, established in February 2024.
• Putin approved Russia's budget plans, raising 2025 military spending to record levels. Around 32.5% of the budget has been allocated for national defense, amounting to 13.5 trillion rubles (over $145 billion), up from a reported 28.3% this year.
• North Korea may have supplied Russia with its powerful M1991 multiple launch rocket systems, capable of striking targets up to 60 km away - Forbes.
• North Korea supplied Russia with 100 ballistic missiles, 100 artillery systems, and 5 million shells – Ukrainian intelligence.
• North Korea is expanding a key weapons production complex that assembles KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles used by Russia against Ukraine - Reuters.
• Russia released the operational capabilities of the Malva 152mm self-propelled artillery system in Ukraine.
• 39% of Russians think a nuclear strike on Ukraine is justified, a Russian sociologist says.
• There is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile used by Russia against Ukraine, and US and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a Russian escalation in the war - ISW.

Major developments:

• In a powerful, coordinated strike on Nov.29, the Ukrainian military bombarded Russian bases in occupied Crimea with no fewer than 40 deep-strike munitions.
• Russia launched nearly 350 missiles and over 2,500 attack drones at Ukraine in November.
• On Nov. 26, Russia launched 188 attack drones against Ukraine overnight, a record number in the war so far. Putin said that the massive bombardment of Ukraine was a response to attacks on Russia. The “massive” attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure left more than a million households without power
• Russia lost almost 46,000 troops and over $3 billion worth of military equipment in November, Ukraine's Defense Ministry says.
• Ukraine destroys 3 Russian radar systems in Crimea, military intelligence claims. The radars include two 48Y6-K1 Podlet systems worth $5 million each and one Kasta-2E2 radar, estimated to cost around $30 million.

Other news:

• Russia continues to import US-made waterjet cutting machines, which are important for producing military equipment. Investigators from The Insider Media reported that this is happening despite the fact that the United States has imposed an embargo on machine tools and their components. The banned U.S.-made equipment comes via countries such as Turkey, China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and the Maldives.
• New components of the North Korean KN-23/KN-24 ballistic missile have been published on The War&Sanctions portal by Ukrainian intelligence.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister Sybiha asked his NATO counterparts to invite Ukraine to join the alliance during a meeting in Brussels next week, Reuters reported.
• Ukraine withdraws over 20,000 mortar shells due to malfunction.
• Unidentified drones flew over three U.S. Air Force bases in the U.K. in the past week, U.S. officials said on Nov. 26.
• On November 23-24, 2024, the USS Hornet aircraft carrier in California hosted the Defense Tech Hackathon. Participants worked on tasks formulated based on requests from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, ensuring the practical value of the developments.

Opinion and analysis:

• Better late than never: Israeli companies finally reach out to Ukraine to help fight Iranian drones (Milan Czerny for The Kyiv Independent). Israel initially overlooked Ukrainian warnings about the threat posed by Iranian drones before the Gaza war erupted but with increased threats in the region, Israeli firms are now turning to Ukraine’s defense industry for help.
• Solutions to win: Ukrainian 3D printer owners revolutionize Defense Forces’ supplies with innovative DrukArmy initiative (Rubryka / Bohdan Miroshnychenko for Ekonomichna Provda). Thanks to the dedication of volunteers, 3D printing in Ukraine has become crucial in supplying the army with essential components, ranging from ammunition to medical equipment. "DrukArmy" (Ukr. - Print Army) united over 10,000 printers, which now print and deliver hundreds of thousands of parts to the front weekly. The "DrukArmy" catalog contains approximately 500 unique products, most of which were designed by its team.
• ‘War of robots’: How 1,000 days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred an automation boom (Max Hunder for Reuters). Ukraine now has more than 160 companies building unmanned ground vehicles, according to state-backed defence accelerator Brave1. They can be used to deliver supplies, evacuate wounded or carry remotely operated machine guns. Arms minister Herman Smetanin also said remote warfare, including using artificial intelligence, was on the increase.
• What is the Danish model, and how does it benefit Ukraine? (The Independent Anti-Corruption Commission). EU countries can finance contracts with Ukrainian manufacturers to produce weapons for the Armed Forces. Ukraine creates the order: it chooses the companies and the types of weapons it needs, and the European countries conduct an independent audit of the manufacturers. This approach allows Ukraine to receive weapons more quickly and in larger quantities. Ultimately, the Danish model will make Ukraine less dependent on foreign aid, said the Danish defence minister.

Photo: Kharkiv. Shell cemetery. December, 2022. By Kostiantyn Liberov @Libkos