Unconventional Indicators in Strategic Resilience: Thinking Outside the Box in Risk Management

As a risk management professional, I've learned that valuable insights can often come from unexpected sources. In our data-driven world, we typically rely on sophisticated models and traditional metrics to assess risks and resilience. However, sometimes unconventional indicators can offer unique perspectives that complement our standard approaches. Today, I'd like to explore two such indicators that have gained attention in the field of strategic resilience assessment: the informal "Pizza Meter" and FEMA's Waffle House Index.

The Importance of Unconventional Thinking in Risk Management

Before diving into these specific indicators, it's worth considering why unconventional metrics matter in our field. Risk management is not just about analyzing known risks; it's about anticipating the unexpected and identifying blind spots in our assessments. Unconventional indicators can:

1. Provide early warning signals that traditional metrics might miss
2. Offer real-time insights into evolving situations
3. Encourage creative thinking in risk assessment methodologies
4. Help bridge the gap between quantitative data and on-the-ground realities

With this in mind, let's examine two intriguing examples of unconventional indicators.

The "Pizza Meter": An Anecdotal Indicator of Government Activity

The concept of the "Pizza Meter" emerged from observations of pizza delivery patterns to government buildings during times of crisis or heightened activity.

Key Points:

• Origin: The idea dates back to the Cold War era when intelligence agencies reportedly monitored food deliveries to government buildings as a way to gauge potential crises.
• Recent Example: On April 13, 2024, during Iran's attack on Israel, there was a reported increase in pizza orders from U.S. government buildings, including the Pentagon and State Department.
• Theory: The premise is that during times of crisis or intense activity, government employees work longer hours, leading to increased food deliveries.

Limitations and Considerations:

• This is an informal, anecdotal indicator without systematic data collection or verification.
• Changes in work patterns, such as increased remote work, may affect its relevance.
• It's highly localized and may not reflect broader national or global situations.

While the Pizza Meter is more of an interesting anecdote than a reliable metric, it does highlight the potential value of observing everyday activities as indicators of unusual events.

The Waffle House Index: US FEMA's Informal Disaster Metric

The Waffle House Index is an informal metric used by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.

How it works:

• Green: Restaurants open with full menu - indicates minimal impact
• Yellow: Limited menu - suggests power loss or supply chain issues
• Red: Restaurants closed - signals severe damage to the area

Key Points:

• Origin: Developed by former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate in 2011.
• Rationale: Waffle House is known for its disaster preparedness and ability to operate during challenging conditions. Their operational status can therefore serve as a quick indicator of local conditions.
• Real-world application: During Hurricane Ian in 2022, the closure of 35 Waffle Houses in Florida signaled the storm's severity and helped FEMA gauge the scale of the disaster.

Strengths of the Waffle House Index:

1. Simplicity: It's easy to understand and implement.
2. Real-time data: Provides immediate insights into local conditions.
3. Reflects multiple factors: Indirectly measures power availability, supply chain integrity, and road conditions.

Limitations:

• Geographically limited.
• May not be applicable to all types of disasters or emergencies.

Professional Considerations for Unconventional Indicators

As risk management professionals, when evaluating these or other unconventional indicators, we should keep several key principles in mind:

1. Verify Data Sources: Ensure any data used is from reliable, verifiable sources. Anecdotal evidence should be clearly labeled as such.
2. Understand Context: Recognize the limitations and specific contexts where these indicators might be relevant. What works in one situation may not be applicable in another.
3. Use as Supplements: Employ unconventional indicators to complement, not replace, traditional risk assessment methods. They should be part of a broader, more comprehensive approach.
4. Continuously Evaluate: Regularly assess the validity and relevance of any unconventional metrics used. Be prepared to adapt or discard indicators that no longer provide valuable insights.
5. Consider Ethical Implications: Some unconventional indicators may raise privacy concerns or have unintended consequences. Always consider the ethical dimensions of your risk assessment methodologies.
6. Encourage Innovation: While maintaining a critical eye, foster an environment where team members feel comfortable proposing and exploring new potential indicators.

The Future of Unconventional Indicators in Risk Management

As our world becomes increasingly complex and interconnected, the role of unconventional indicators in risk management is likely to grow. We may see:

• Increased use of social media data and sentiment analysis to gauge public reactions and potential risks
• Integration of IoT (Internet of Things) data to provide real-time insights into various systems and infrastructures
• Development of Risk Management AI-driven systems that can identify correlations and potential indicators

Conclusion:

While unconventional indicators like the Pizza Meter and Waffle House Index offer interesting perspectives, they should be approached with caution in professional risk management. Their true value lies in encouraging us to think creatively about resilience indicators and to look beyond traditional data sources. As our field evolves, we must have a balance between embracing innovative approaches and maintaining the rigorous, data-driven methodologies that form the cornerstone of effective risk management. By remaining open to new ideas while upholding high standards of verification and analysis, we can enhance our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and respond to the complex risks facing our organizations and societies.

Disclaimer: The indicators discussed in this article are informal and should not be relied upon for critical decision-making without further verification and analysis.