US Elections Update//Democratic National Convention Takeaways

The Democratic National Convention this week had the mood of a music festival. More important politically, it was successful at pulling together the various camps within the party, especially the angry and alienated far-left "progressive" wing. This is no small feat. Party cohesion is crucial if Democrats want to beat Trump. We saw a party that is more unified behind its candidate and proposition, and is finally playing offense. And no sign of the “1968-style” protests that were feared.

The convention highlighted the depth and breadth of party talent, showcasing the political heavyweights of yesteryear like the Clintons and Obamas, and of the future--Buttegieg and AOC. It was disciplined in its messaging and will have given the party a boost of adrenaline. The fact that the messaging was crafted almost in real-time, with the campaign underway for only one month, is impressive, and in my view also has a lot to do with the sincere and authentic feel of the speeches. There just hasn’t been enough time for campaign strategists to focus group messages into banality.

Harris's much-anticipated acceptance speech last night saw her move squarely to the political centre ground, positioning her as career prosecutor who is tough on crime and corporate excess, and committed to reproductive rights and the U.S. social safety net (Social Security and Medicare), as well as strongly reinforcing her own version of the "American dream" personal story as a child of Indian and Jamaican immigrants from Oakland, California. 

It is notable that Harris has scrupulously avoided campaigning on either race or gender; taking lessons from Hillary Clinton’s missteps on this front: no discussion about cracks in the glass ceiling have been in evidence. One of the most striking aspects of the new framing under Harris and Walz is that Democrats are attempting to claim the centre, with patriotic messages about “freedom” and chants of “USA, USA” that have been anathema to the party’s hard left for some time. This messaging clearly resonated inside the convention centre—whether it moves undecideds, Independents and swing state voters remains to be seen.

Harris’s acceptance speech did not offer much for business leaders to sink their teeth into, but it did highlight a key message about her commitment to the U.S. role in the world that America's allies and global business will be pleased to hear when she said she intends to “Strengthen not abdicate US global leadership”. Nevertheless,  the talk here in Europe continues to be of "Trump-proofing" NATO and the European security architecture. This is wise.

Kamalanomics? Early Indications of Harris’s Economic Policies

Neither was there much detail for Wall Street, but Wall Street was very much not the primary audience for the convention. Having run ahead of the polls in expecting a Trump victory all year, US investor sentiment is now running behind the polls, which show Harris tied or ahead, including in swing states. 

Harris has walked back earlier anti-fracking comments, and is committed to Biden’s higher level of corporate tax, but greater detail has been thin on the ground. More detail is likely to emerge in the coming weeks.

I am also watching what RFJ Jr. does next. His campaign has been floundering, and the last straw was his bizarre admission that he put a dead bear in his car and kept it there for a day, later dumping it inside New York’s Central Park and trying to make it look like a bicycle accident.

I’m hearing that he could withdraw as soon as Friday and endorse Trump. Pollsters are split on which candidate most stands to gain from RFK Jr.’s withdrawal, but the most likely impact seems to be splitting the difference of around 5%. Fewer candidates tends to be better for Democrats, historically speaking. Who remembers Ralph Nader?

It is too soon to count Trump out, and a close election risks disruptive political blowback. Starting next week we are officially launching our US Election Watch coverage.

Our Views in the Press

Tina Fordham Analyses Kamala Harris's Political Strategy on Bloomberg's Open Interest

Tina Fordham Breaks Down Geopolitics & U.S. Elections with Dan Murphy on CNBC

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