We are living in an exponential world, and most people can't see it.

We are inherently linear thinkers. The pace of time and growth appear to move linearly for most aspects of our lives (our children's height, inflation, our budget at work, days left until our next vacation). It is much easier to comprehend linear progression than the relentless, compounding effect of exponential improvements. In small enough time windows, exponential growth can even appear linear if you don't look closely.

Raymond Kurzweil famously predicted that computer intelligence would surpass people by 2029, and he made that prediction 30 years ago. Time is the most important factor in reaching new heights in technology and we are fortunate to live in the time when AI has reached this level of sophistication.

At the time of the original prediction, computers could barely do word processing and spreadsheets. It was easy to dismiss those crude machines as never being capable of doing real work or passing graduate exams. ChatGPT didn't come out Nov 2022. And, even then, people assumed it was too limited to do real work. Since that moment, bigger, more sophisticated models have come out constantly from every major technology company. And, they are passing human benchmarks at an exponential pace. Every week a new benchmark is achieved.

This is exactly how exponential improvements happen. The improvements seem small at first because a 10x improvement on something small is still small. But, once it crosses certain thresholds, the impacts on business are huge. Only 3 years ago, we were impressed that our email could predict the next word as we type. Now the most advanced generative AI models can read all the works of Shakespeare in 37 seconds (I tested it) and then create new content in that style in just a few seconds more.

As you make plans for your business, don't think linearly. Don't design for GPT-4 or Gemini 1.5 which are available today. Generative AI will continue to advance 10x a year, so you need to look ahead at where Generative AI will be and design now for the next 1-2 years where AI will be able to handle entire workflows, leverage all of your data, and operate at a faster speed and much lower cost than where they are right now.

Think 10x.

#ai #genai #generativeai #artificialintelligence #agi #singularity