Weekly Filter: Fate of Statesmen

🏛️ Inda House. In the last years Americans involved in the January 6, 2021 attack on Capitol have been convicted one after the other, some leaders of the rebellion have been sentenced to more than 20 years in prison. Yet, to this day, many Republican representatives, especially the so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement members, deny that this rebellion ever took place. This same movement provided Mike Johnson as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives–after they ousted their own GOP Speaker. The infighting is visible on every platform:

• Republican Senator Ken Buck has announced that he will not seek reelection because of the internal party schism, particularly highlighting the theme of election denialism, almost mandatory in MAGA circles.

• Last week, a court in Denver heard a case on whether Trump can be barred from running for president in 2024 under the 14th Amendment. This Civil War-era amendment states that anyone who has engaged in sedition against the constitutional order cannot hold public office. Similar lawsuits have been filed in several other states. Legally, chances are modest that a negative ruling would pass in the Supreme Court.
• Meanwhile, we have more news about Project 2025, the prospective Trump program being prepared by right-wing think tanks. The package, which includes plans for presidential executive orders, also details how Trump could use the Insurrection Act of 1871 to lead the military into the streets during major protests. Perhaps already on his first day in office. It also leaked which of his disloyal former allies would become targets of a witch hunt, meaning investigations by a politically instructed FBI or DoJ.

• By the way, in his other lawsuits, Trump has been repeatedly violating the so-called gag orders: he is of course happily tweeting in his vulgar way, even one of his defense lawyers has freely admitted that although she was advising his client, Trump calls the shots. In principle, this could also mean jail time, but again, a very distant option.
• The financial fraud trial in New York resumed on Tuesday with a hearing for Trump, two of his sons already testified last week. The ex-president began to get tired in the fourth hour of the hearing and frequently lashed out at the judge. The attorney general is also active on Twitter.

🎖️ Narrative kills. The above shows how much energy goes into managing domestic political tension. The real victim here is the administration and its ability to function. Not only are ambassadorial appointments delayed and blocked, but since the spring, Congress has been in arrears with 375 military appointments.

• Unfilled senior military posts pose a huge national security risk at a time when war is raging in Gaza and Ukraine, and China is eyeing Taiwan.
• Marine Corps head General Smith, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff suffered a heart attack the other week, presumably not unrelated to the fact that he had to fill two positions simultaneously because of the backlog of appointments.

• The protagonist of the whole appointment-delay scandal is yet again a Republican: Senator Tuberville started the blockade because he wants to stop Biden’s Pentagon from subsidizing the costs of female soldiers traveling to other states for abortion. This is a prime example of when the Culture War suddenly becomes more important than the real wars that claim lives every day: when the decision-maker cannot break out of the virtual realm of narratives. So shocking is the behavior of Tuberville that in the end, his own GOP senators confronted him, pleading, threatening, persuading him to give up the veto.
• It failed. By the end of the year, 650 of the 852 US military leadership posts could be affected by this ideological infighting.

🇺🇲 Something about old dogs and tricks. Biden's approval rating remains low despite the stabilising economic indicators: 55% are dissatisfied with him, while only 38% are satisfied. This is broadly similar to Trump's approval ratings during his time in office, previous presidents have generally scored higher in their last year. The war in Israel could specifically split his support base. More than fifty staffers of the DNC, the main Democratic Party organization, have written a letter to Biden demanding that he takes the Palestinians into account or they will quit. The latter would reflect badly on Democrats during the campaign season. Younger and more liberal Democratic voters have held similar views for years.

• Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis momentum seems to be running out: Trump's Florida visit was more popular than DeSantis had hoped for. They are almost neck and neck behind–way behind–Trump in second place with Nikki Haley, the first female governor of South Carolina. Her maiden name is Randhawa, the child of successful Indian immigrants, she served two terms as governor, was economically successful and then became Trump's ambassador to the UN. Interestingly, she was much more critical of Russia than the President. She also stayed on the moderate Republican line in the January 6 affair, condemning the event. The two’s chances could be determined quickly in the first primaries.

🇮🇱 How much longer for Bibi? The fate of Biden and Trump is still another dimension compared to Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister is trying to extract as much personal political insurance as possible from the war in Gaza to keep his seat. Since the investigations against him are threatening without him holding on to power, public policy-making may also fall victim to his self-defense. His critics are worried that this could lead to Netanyahu benefiting from a protracted war, or even its escalation, and he would push the government in that direction.

• A former US ambassador to Israel criticizes Netanyahu in a rather harsh article, summing up his flawed foreign policy decisions over the past ten-plus years in government–from Washington's perspective.
• Western partners were also unhappy when a scenario, otherwise prepared at a lower level of government, was leaked (by whom?!) on the possibility of resettling the entire population of Gaza to Egypt.
• Over the week, the Gaza ministry reported that the death toll has exceeded 10,000. Meanwhile several countries have recalled their ambassadors from Tel Aviv: most recently South Africa, but also Bahrain, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Jordan and Turkey. Bolivia has outright cut diplomatic relations.

A particular problem is the matter of who counts the victims in a conflict zone mostly inaccessible to the press. Hamas is a terrorist organization, yet it is the only source for the death toll inside Gaza; while the IDF figures are accepted for their own casualties. The problem has already arisen in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, where there are also significant differences between the two counts. Hamas's only chance of survival is to turn the majority of world public opinion against Israel as soon as possible. Moreover, it will never distinguish between civilian and militant victims, even more as part of its tactic is to hide its terrorists in (and under) civilian objects. So there is no counter by which Hamas would admit how many of its fighters have been killed in action. Although the UN and most press outlets have previously accepted the figures of Hamas' health ministry, it might be under more pressure (by radical Hamas members) during the conflict to tweak it to serve more Hamas-propaganda objectives. The Washington Post dedicated an entire article to the question here.

🇵🇸 Palestine or Gaza? Blinken was back in Tel Aviv to discuss what comes after the military phase. In the short term, contrary to all earlier statements, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are preparing to help out in the civilian administration after the war. There is no real alternative. Law enforcement would remain in Israeli hands, as for municipal services, one will see.

• What form of a two-state solution might be dusted off in a post-Netanyahu era is still only being whispered, although this would undoubtedly be the one solution that, with a skilful international coalition behind it, could pacify both sides: so the paradox would be that Hamas' terrorist attacks could push the parties towards a more peaceful solution. It is not impossible, but we’re still a long way from that.
• Meanwhile, the Abbas-led Palestinian Authority, as we reported earlier, has now officially signed up for political control of Gaza.
• Abbas ran for one election, which he won in 2005, but has not called one in the West Bank ever since. The question is whether, if an election were to be held in Gaza in the next few years, whether it could produce a favorable result for either Abbas or Tel Aviv–meaning a more moderate force in power. Now good luck with that, so if no election, but an authority comes in from abroad, the situation will not get quickly calmer on the ground...
• Let's not forget that Hamas was elected by Gazans, albeit in a not an entirely free election (Hamas won 44%), and Hamas later set about liquidating Fatah in Gaza. The role of Bush Jr. is also recounted in detail: an instructive story of American idealism and ignoring the experts.

🇱🇧 Escalation is delayed. Last week, the leader of Hezbollah finally gave a speech that was relatively low-key, and did not declare war on Israel. But Iranian-backed attacks on US bases in Syria continue, with 45 US soldiers reported injured so far. Deadly clashes are also taking place on the northern Israeli-Lebanese border. The powder keg is now the West Bank, where nearly half a million settlers are being supported by the Netanyahu government’s military.

• Let's also highlight that Hamas is to this day (!) still able to launch rockets into Israeli territory, so the tunnel-fighting modus operandi is still ongoing.
• Finally, I will share with you a link to an article from 2014 sent in by an expert: it’s about how Hamas' central bunker was operating in and under one of the largest hospitals in Gaza City, currently surrounded by IDF. The twist: the bunker was built by Israeli soldiers during the first Israeli occupation, Hamas turned it into its HQ and to protect it, it is partially operating the premises as a hospital on the surface. (Another thread in the article is about how Hamas "media workers" intimidated journalists into not covering the hospital bunker story.)

🇭🇺 Self-turkification. Last week, Hungary’s diplomatic chassé was performed by Viktor Orbán at the Turkic Council, where he praised the Azeri president for expelling the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh–restoring Azeri sovereignty. The question is whether this is consistent with the government's national policy goals: think of Hungarian ethnic minorities abroad. Meanwhile, the EU Foreign Affairs Council (the 27 foreign ministers, not Eurocrats!) is plotting to help the Armenians, the French are already selling radars and other military equipment to Yerevan to discourage a possible Azeri invasion (and, of course, to feed the French coffers).

• A NATO exercise is taking place in Hungary until the end of the month, according to the defense minister.
• First FAZ wrote about that BYD, China's largest electric car manufacturer, may move near Szeged, Hungary. Here is a detailed Direkt36 piece from 2021 on how China worked its way into Hungarian politics.

🚰 A drop of clear water. Zaluzhnyi not only gave a long interview to The Economist but also wrote an analysis himself. Both pieces are excellent, and paint the following conclusions:

• If the war drags on, Russians will have the advantage: in manpower, in equipment, and in the hinterland.
• There won't be a "deep and beautiful" Ukrainian breakthrough this year; the only purpose of making few-meter wide gains is maintaining the initiative. Both sides believed in a quick operation on their side, but it didn't work out for either.
• Ukrainian reinforcements are not infinite (especially compared to the Russians): the difficulty of training, Russian air strikes on training centers, and the difficulty of conscripting the male population (recently exposed corrupt recruiters to legal gaps) all worsen long-term prospects.
• The only way to reverse the stalemate is seen in military innovation: a situation reminiscent of the First World War has emerged, which serves the defensive side much better, with both sides using drones to monitor the other, no chance for surprises, and huge minefields slowing everything down .

📱 Playing the role. It's hard to imagine Zelenskyy not contributing to the realistic picture painted by the rarely speaking Zaluzhnyi. In any case, they immediately embraced the good cop–bad cop role because shortly after, the president declared that there is no stalemate, although undoubtedly the situation is "difficult".

• Zelensky replaced the leader of the Ukrainian special forces. It might be in connection with the allegation that the forces might have been responsible for blowing up the North Stream gas pipeline.
• The British Ministry of Defense, which has been quite realistic in its assessments so far, now says that holding the 1200 km front is so resource-intensive for both sides that neither can afford to gather a force capable of breaking through.

💲 Cash is king. All this was probably a conscious communication strategy for the week when the Ukrainian Rada discusses the 2024 budget. There is a $29 billion gap in the proposal. The finance minister hinted that an economically collapsing Ukraine would have a negative impact on European energy and agricultural prices and the crisis would spill over into the EU.

• In sharp contrast, Republicans in the Johnson-led U.S. Congress are taking their sweet time regarding Ukrainian support, and at the recent EU summit, the Slovak and Hungarian prime ministers also opposed the payouts.
• Alongside budgetary support, the issue of the blocked $300 billion of Russian assets and its profits in Euro-Atlantic financial institutions has resurfaced: how to officially allocate at least the interests for Ukrainian reconstruction? Legally, it’s quite the challenge, and it's risky in terms of international reputation–think about how the owners of all the Arab capital in Europe must be taking notes fervently. For Kyiv, it wants not only the interests but all the frozen Russian assets as war compensation. The Commission is now preparing a proposal to channel the interests eventually.
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also encountered pro-Russian prank callers Vovan and Lexus. They have called numerous Western politicians under false names, this time interrogating Meloni while impersonating an African partner, and she did not hesitate to detail how much European partners are affected by war fatigue and are hoping for the conflict to end. This may have been sincere. However, Putin has violated exactly five international agreements by starting the war, one signed by himself. So why would anyone believe him the 6th times? This is why it's difficult to envision a viable agreement in any form before the Russians are strategically weakened, but this latter could proceed faster.

🇪🇺 On Wednesday, the leading body of the European Commission, the college of commissioners, decided to officially propose the start of accession negotiations with two countries: Ukraine and Moldova could be the lucky ones, although this proposal also needs to be accepted by the Council, made up of member states, in December. If they also approve, there is no strict deadline for the negotiations, but, best case, they could commence in the first half of 2024.

• Until then, both countries must present reforms in a few more areas for the detailed, chapter-by-chapter accession negotiation process to begin. The closing of the accession itself must also be approved by the parliaments of all member states, and most EU leaders clearly link the enlargement to internal institutional reforms, so it's realistic to see the flags of Ukraine or Moldova in Brussels only after 2030.
• A conference on these reforms was hosted by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin, attended by 17 ministers and 11 state secretaries. They discussed removing veto rights, abolishing the current division of commissioner portfolios, and dusting off several old but feared proposals.

🚧 Home alone. With the expected decrease in U.S. presence in Europe (Gaza war, presidential election, possibly Trump 2.0), the EU can start doing its homework and stabilizing its own neighborhood. In this spirit, Ursula von der Leyen (UVL) made a surprise visit to Kyiv last weekend, and she also stopped over at several capitals in the Balkans.

• The 12th EU sanctions package was one of the topics between UVL and Zelensky, we’ll learn the official details soon.
• They tried to appease Kosovo-Serbia tensions at the previous EU summit, and UVL now signaled again to the Serbian leadership that recognition of Kosovo is a condition for progress in negotiations. There are diplomatic solutions to this, but it remains to be seen whether Vucic's new government dares to embark on a journey to normalization next year.
• Regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, the UN Security Council finally did vote in favor to prolong the mandate of the UN mission in the country. Therefore, Serbian separatist leader Milorad Dodik was left empty-handed, as he was hoping for a Russian veto to the decision.

🇨🇳 Made in China. While UVL toured the southern border of Europe, others flew towards Asia. In December, the EU-China summit will take place, but before that: an interesting diplomatic victory for Brussels. Four small summits preceded the big summit, during which commissioners met with Chinese leaders responsible for their respective fields. Out of a thousand topics, Beijing eventually gave in on one. According to a recent law, data could not be transferred out of China until the authorities gave permission. This is expected to be reversed, and data can move as long as there is no ban. Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and we'll see how China executes this.

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Xi in Beijing this week, which, after the previously very frosty relationship, is the first sign that tensions could ease, although observers say that this was just the beginning.
• We wrote about it earlier, but now it’s officially announced that Biden will meet Xi in San Francisco in a few days. It's worth watching whether they bring up Taiwan and whether there will be promises regarding the trade war, but it's definitely positive that the meeting is happening at all. 
• While Chinese state propaganda can criticize the US and the liberal world order quite vigorously, they brought out the Flying Tiger veterans before the meeting: this American air unit helped liberate China from the Japanese in World War II, and they are still considered real heroes in China today.

🛩️ Si vis pacem, para bellum. We’ve seen some dynamic flights the other week also in balancing against Chinese influence.

• Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar visited South Korea.
• Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte paid a visit to Malaysia and Vietnam. Interestingly, the warming of Vietnamese-European relations is progressing quite quickly, led by the USA, which also means that the two countries have overcome their common war history because of Beijing.
• Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to secure uranium for the French nuclear industry. Earlier, he did the same in Mongolia, on his way home from the G7 summit. It's a fact that the West's dependence on Russian uranium is serious, as Zoltán Laky wrote in this excellent summary.
• Meanwhile, Thierry Breton, the industrial commissioner and French member of the European Commission, negotiated in Beijing.
• Finally, let’s not forget that presidential elections will be held in Taiwan in January, which will provide enough excitement in Sino-European relations, as serious Chinese intervention attempts were identified in the previous election.

🇬🇧 English success. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pulled off a global stunt last week when, at the artificial intelligence (AI) summit held at Bletchley Park, he managed to get 28 countries, including China and the USA, to sign the Bletchley Declaration, which establishes at least some basic principles regarding AI.

• Another achievement is the willingness of larger companies to collaborate with participating states in testing their new AI models. This could become the Bletchley Institute.
• The next two summits will be in South Korea and France in the foreseeable future.
• The UN couldn't produce such a thing, but the G7, the EU, the USA, and OECD are the ones who have so far introduced or will soon adopt substantive AI regulation.

A few news snippets from European countries that we should keep our eyes on.

•  🇵🇹 The Prime Minister of Portugal resigned when he woke up this week to find that not only his official residence, but more than 40 locations were searched by police. Due to corruption allegations related to lithium mining and hydrogen production, there is likely to be an early election in the country, which no party has prepared for. PM Costa's prospects have been looking up until now; he could even have had a chance for a top-ish level EU position. Nasty corruption!
•  🇵🇱 The Polish president, surely smirking under his nose, entrusted PiS with forming a government, while all potential coalition partners have indicated that they intend to go with Tusk. But whoever gains time gains political room for maneuver, and PiS certainly needs time.
• 🇸🇰 In Slovakia, the expected purge has begun. Although Chief of Police István Hamran quickly submitted his resignation to caretataker PM Lajos Ódor upon seeing the election results, he still had to spend his last two days under Fico, who, with the same momentum, moved him to the far-away Poprad for 48 hours. Several police leaders are being replaced at the same time. Fico stopped the Slovak 14th Ukrainian aid package worth €40 million, which was comprised primarily of ammunition. So far, Bratislava has provided €671 million in support to Ukraine–mainly in the form of old Soviet military equipment. 
• 🇫🇷 Lastly, the French police uncovered that the nearly 250 Star of David symbols drawn in Paris over a few days were the work of two pairs who were in contact with a Moldovan pro-Russian businessman, and pushed by user accounts of the Russian disinfo group Doppelgänger. Too bad! It's an old Soviet script, but unfortunately, riling up social groups against each other often works effectively.

Thank you for reading this double edition!