Weekly Global Conflict OSINT Report (December 5th - December 11th)
Metis Analytics- OSINT Recon Center (Cyber, GEO)
The Cyber and Geospatial Reconnaissance center of Metis Analytics.
Summary
Eastern Europe - Russia
Incident: On the 6th of December, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the new Oreshnik IRBM will go into mass production and that at some point they may be deployed to Belarus in the same way that small tactical nuclear warheads were deployed to Belarus last year.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Western Asia - Middle East
The Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and the Fall of al-Assad
Incident: On the 5th of December, the Syrian Arab Army withdrew from the Hama outskirts towards Homs. This is one of the last remaining major strongholds for the SAA on the western side of the country and its loss now threatens the major military centers in Latakia and Tartus. The SAA stated that they withdrew to avoid fighting inside the city, effectively surrendering Hama without a proper fight.
Threat Level: No longer applicable
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: No longer applicable
Incident: On the 6th of December, the Assad Government lost control of Daraa and Deir Ez Zor to the revived Free Syrian Army and Syrian Defense Force. In both cases, the SAA withdrew with very little resistance. Meanwhile the people of As Suwayda rose up, raided the police headquarters, and forced the local SAA garrison to surrender, effectively giving the FSA another major city and, by the end of the day, the entire southern part of Syria.
Threat Level: No longer applicable
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: No longer applicable
Incident: On the 7th of December, the city of Palmyra in eastern Syria was taken by the advancing Kurdish forces without so much as a single fight taking place. Meanwhile further south, due to the SAA withdrawing, the nine-year siege imposed on the Al-Tanf area is over.
Threat Level: No longer applicable
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: No longer applicable
Incident: On the 7th of December, by 10 PM EST, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham captured the city of Homs, while the FSA captured Damascus. The Syrian General Staff of the Armed Forces ordered a complete surrender. This day marks the end of the Assad regime and the Syrian Arab Republic. Now is the start of a troubled and fractured Syria.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Civilians at high risk of being persecuted such as Christians and Alawites should heavily consider leaving Syria immediately for their own safety. Meanwhile, civilians unlikely to be persecuted will be mostly safe from the incoming regimes, however, as the Civil War has not ended, and is unlikely to end any time soon, anyone remaining in Syria anywhere near the current front lines will be at high risk of being injured by the ongoing power struggle.
A Fractured Syria
Incident: On the 7th of December, due to the collapse of the Syrian Arab Army, Israel has taken this opportunity to invade southern Syria, capturing Quneitra and looking to expand possibly as far as Daraa and As Suwayda. Their stated goal in this operation is to establish a protective buffer zone between Israel's Golan Heights and the future Syrian Republic.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Anyone living in southern Syria in areas where the IDF are or will conduct operations should not approach IDF troops but are generally safe to continue living normally.
Incident: On the 8th of December, in addition to the ground incursion by Israel into southern Syria, the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes against former Syrian military bases including the Mezzeh Air Base and the Scientific Research Center in Damascus as well as the port of Latakia. These strikes have reportedly destroyed around 80% to 90% of the heavy military equipment left over by the SAA, depriving any future Syrian Government of any air defenses, naval ships, and aircraft.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: While most of the bombing campaign has ended by now, no one should approach any military facilities around Syria for their own safety as additional bombing runs may occur with little to no warning.
Incident: On the 10th of December, Türkiye began an air campaign against Kurdish SDF positions in Syria with the specific goal of supporting the SNA advance eastward across northern Syria. In addition, the SNA captured the city of Manbij from the SDF on the same day.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Kurds living near the front line between the SDF and SNA should consider moving deeper into SDF held territory as the SNA has, so far, been accused of committing severe atrocities in the areas they have captured.
Sources
Eastern Europe - Russia
Western Asia - Middle East
The Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and the Fall of al-Assad
A Fractured Syria
Predictions/Op-Ed
The Collapse of Syria and the Future of the Middle East
An absolutely unexpected and somewhat surprising event took place this week. Within about ten days of fighting, the Syrian Arab Republic ceased to exist. Even now, four days later, no one knows with certainty why the Syrian Arab Army simply gave up in the face of a smaller fighting force equipped with worse weapons and no air support. Some former soldiers are blaming Assad, others are blaming Russia and Iran, and meanwhile Russian troops are blaming it entirely on the SAA's rank and file soldiers. One thing we do know for certain, and that's that Bashar al-Assad has been deposed and fled to Russia.
Let's quickly review the timeline of events for additional context. On the 27th of November, just one day after the ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army began their largest offensive campaign since 2020 towards Aleppo. Two days later, HTS took over most of Aleppo, effectively forcing SAA forces to retreat south towards Hama. Nearly a week of sporadic fighting later, the SAA withdrew from Hama on the 5th of December towards Homs. A day later, the Free Syrian Army reconstituted itself, spurred on civil uprisings in the southern part of Syria, and conquered much of the Daraa region. And lastly, on the 7th of December, everything ended as Damascus was captured by the FSA while Homs was captured by the HTS.
That's what happened on the Assad Government side of the country anyways as fighting in the north and east is a more complicated topic due to the intersecting and incompatible ambitions of Türkiye against the US-backed Kurdish people of Rojava. And when we couple that political mess with Israel's ambitions in the south, nullifying the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, and seeking to capture significant territory, things become even more complicated.
This leaves us with Syria currently divided primarily between five factions, the SNA, HTS, SDF, FSA, and Israel, all of whom are likely to seek their own forms of government within the newly liberated Syria. As stated in the previous paragraph, Israel seeks a buffer zone within FSA territory in southern Syria. The FSA likely wants to maintain control over the lands they already control but have stated they're willing to work with HTS to lead Syria. Meanwhile the SDF is most likely going to desire a complete breakaway from Syria to establish a Kurdish homeland or at least an autonomous zone. However, Türkiye and their main ally, the SNA, do not want this happen. Instead, they want to maintain control of more or less the entire northern strip of Syria as it provides Türkiye with their own buffer zone. A lot of that northern strip is, at least at the time of writing, controlled by the Kurdish SDF. And lastly, HTS, per their leader, al-Julani, want to simply establish a freer Syria that may or may not be ruled by Sharia Law and other Islamic extremist ideologies depending on who is put in charge of what.
So with the newly liberated Syria facing an invasion from Türkiye in the north, an invasion from Israel in the south, and multiple groups still fighting each other, it's hard to say if Syria will truly be free. Any government that comes into power will have to contend with reasonable and unreasonable claims by each of these factions or face the same problems al-Assad faced over the last decade. Tragically, the solution may come to either splitting Syria into completely different countries or installing a new al-Assad type dictator to control the people and neither of these solutions are good for anyone. We can only sit back and watch at this point as we've well and truly gone beyond the point of no return to solving this conundrum peacefully. I can only hope that I'm wrong and that a peaceful solution pulls through.