What does Biden’s debate disaster mean for Europe?
President Joe Biden and his team agreed to an early debate in order to shift the narrative on a race Democrats recognised they were in serious danger of losing; the disastrous performance of Biden ensured that this danger of defeat is no longer just a running narrative and is now an absolute certainty. What does the collapse of President Biden’s campaign mean for a European Union which looks to the United States as its North Star?
Status quo - a horrifying new reality
If President Biden is not convinced to stand aside by his inner circle and the Democratic Party apparatus, there is no doubt in my mind that Biden will lose this election. Trump will once again be President of The United States on January 20th, 2025, likely with a Republican trifecta where their majority in the House has increased and where they have also won control of the U.S. Senate.
The Biden campaign can no longer pretend that Biden is some kind of energetic dynamo behind closed doors, the American electorate famously craves big moments and glimpses of existential drama on the big screen. The image of a feeble and disoriented President Biden stumbling over his words and repeatedly losing his train of thought has created a perception which simply cannot and will never be spun away or put back inside Pandora’s Box. There are now very legitimate concerns over his ability to execute his oath of office which need to be managed, never mind conducting a successful gruelling Presidential campaign
It is easier for us in Europe to imagine swapping out a leader a few months before an election given our parliamentary systems and short election periods; for Americans this is uncharted waters. Not since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 has a President refused to seek a second term, and even then, it was a consensual act which ended in failure. This moment lies outside of the living memory of most Americans, is without equal precedent and will be deeply troubling to many voters. I personally am of the belief that it is highly feasible for the Democrats to run a successful campaign against a historically weak opponent using a new candidate. Particularly when American voters have stated again and again that they do not wish to see a Trump v Biden repeat.
Regardless, the implications of Biden failing to act on this inevitable moment moves Europe into a decade of existential reckoning. President Trump will very likely abandon Ukraine and undermine NATO, all while challenging the rule of law at home in a manner resembling Hungary’s Fidesz party. The security guarantees and trade reciprocity which have defined the last 80 years of Euro-American relations will finally falter under an erratic and illiberal President empowered by Project 2025 which seeks to undermine the fundamental concepts that define America and the world it has built.
In this scenario it is not difficult to imagine a case where Russia succeeds in grinding down a resource-starved Ukraine, achieving Putin’s ultimate ambition of restoring the Russian empire. Emboldened by an absent NATO and a Europe which has repeatedly failed to independently organise its own militaries, Russia may seek the conquest of the Baltics, Georgia and potentially Poland. Europe can also expect hefty Trump tariffs on trade which will weaken a continent funnelling unprecedented finance into defence as result of the vacuum of American power, whilst also suffering a significant economic shock through reduced trade volumes and increased friction.
On climate change, Europe will be a lone voice in a world which so often denies the realities of ongoing climate catastrophe.
Perhaps the most immediate concern will be the loss of the agenda setting cornerstone power of Western affairs and any semblance of coherence in the international order which has already decayed beyond recognition. The Biden Administration has, to its credit, rallied liberal democracies in defence of our shared values and interests in a manner not seen since the Cold War - it would be an absence heavily felt and a legacy which must be defended. There is only one solution.
If senior Democrats concede the ultimate irreversible disaster that was this debate, and acknowledge that Biden cannot possibly win in November, the party has an abundance of younger charismatic talent with existing recognition and a capacity to propel the Democrats to another term in the White House. By extension, a liberal candidate prevailing would ensure that the status quo in Europe holds. Trump is unlikely to have picked up significant additional support during this debate, it is more the case that swing state voters will simply abstain in November due to a total lack of enthusiasm and loss of faith in government, benefitting Trump’s famously loyal base which will be highly driven to show up at the polls in November.
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The names being touted in American media include Vice-President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Vice-President Kamala Harris has a strong list of both pros and cons, in her favour she has name recognition, a credible claim to the record of the Biden administration, experience in both congressional and executive politics and the ability to take over a well-funded campaign infrastructure which she will already be familiar with. To her credit she has also performed well in diplomatic engagements in Europe. On the other hand, Harris is a spectacularly unpopular VP and largely invisible, it is difficult to see how this element is reoriented but also not impossible. Additionally, Biden standing aside is an admission that he is no longer fully in control of his faculties; journalists and opposition will ask how Harris could silently stand aside while an unfit Biden held the most powerful elected position in the world. As with Newsom, there is also the ‘California factor’, a state viewed (often unfairly, given its pro-business attitudes) as a left-wing enclave by middle America, removed in ideals from a deeply conservative country.
Governor Gavin Newsom of California would himself be a remarkable candidate, he has a blistering command of detail, a typically American charisma, which harks back to the show business feel of Obama or Clinton, and close relations to the Biden campaign as a surrogate. From a European perspective, he has also shown a keen interest and ability in foreign policy with a legitimate understanding of the Ukraine conflict. He is a stark contrast to Biden in terms of age and current ability, while also aligning on core principles of the administration. However, for swing state voters, it may be difficult to look beyond the narrative of California’s cities as pits of chaos and dysfunction; he also does not bring a crucial set of swing state electoral college votes with him.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is perhaps the most remarkable to the lay campaign strategist, Whitmer has secured a Democratic trifecta in Michigan, having won her own 2022 race by ten points in a swing state which Donald Trump won in 2016. She successfully leveraged abortion as the key issue in her re-election campaign and also has the benefit of having been the target of a kidnapping plot planned by Trump aligned far-right extremists. An almost guaranteed shot at securing Michigan’s electoral college votes in November would create a broader, simplified path to the White House for the Democrats. Whitmer is also a survivor of sexual violence, which would create a powerful contrasting pitch against a former President found in civil court to be liable for sexual abuse, alongside his criminal convictions and countless pending cases. It would play well into the existing Biden campaign pitch of a ‘battle for the soul of America’.
Pete Buttigieg enjoyed remarkable success during the 2020 primary campaign as an unknown moderate candidate of high intellect and sharp debate skills, however, his role as Secretary of Transportation has largely removed him from the electoral consciousness, any change of candidate would require a person who can rapidly be recognised across the United States. Buttigieg is perhaps a lesser-known entity, but also possesses a unique set of skills.
Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania won a blowout race by fifteen points in 2022 in the crucial electoral college state and remains popular. However, Shapiro lacks a national profile similar to that cultivated by Whitmer, making the rapid formation of campaign infrastructure
The bottom line
Thursday night’s debate was not just a disaster for liberal America, it was a disaster for Europe and the liberal international order which has defined a post-war world. If the Democrats do not see the writing on the wall, this debate will be remembered as a turning point in world history, away from the dominance of liberal democracy toward a new sinister electoral autocracy which has few values, and many autocratic interests divorced from the needs of the American people.
It would be a drastic miscalculation to assume Americans can be asked to discount the evidence presented before their eyes and ears; the clear evidence is that President Biden is not fit to serve another term as President in his advanced age, that he is a shell of the man who ran four years ago and is in a state of continuous decline. The American electorate may sometimes puzzle Europeans, but this time their conclusion is simple, fair and undeniable. They have seen an image of Biden that will never be forgiven. Americans will not listen to the Democratic elite if they choose the path of wilful ignorance. Donald Trump will return to the White House in this scenario and accordingly, Europe faces a moment of absolute peril.
There is only one rational outcome to this debacle which serves the interests of the American people and indeed the world which America inhabits: a new candidate or an open convention in Chicago in August, if handled correctly, with the support of the sitting President
The coming days will be telling, it will show the world whether President Biden is in this for his country, America’s allies and the world they have created together, or whether he is just another politician blinded by ego and surrounded by selfish confidants who refuse to serve the greater cause of democracy.