Who will end up the biggest winner in the 2018 Elections?

One reason I started a portal on predictions is because I was frustrated with all the contradicting information that comes from people you follow on social media. Given my profession, I would also sometimes have access to polling information which too has often turned out to be inaccurate. These elections have been intriguing because we still continue to get very conflicting information leaving us confused at some level. Still, I venture out to make some predictions. This is different from predictions we put out on Crowdwisdom which is more of a voice of the general public. I shall be posting those predictions on the evening of the election.

Chhattisgarh

This was an election for the Congress to win. The vote swing needed was less and Chattisgarh economy has been a struggle for quite sometime now. Two things haven't worked out the Congress party's way - Strong Leadership and A Divided Opposition. Had these been in place, this would have been an easy win for the Congress. Now it looks like an Hung assembly with a high chance of a Coalition Government of some sort.

Madhya Pradesh

Contrary to what many people say, my take is that Madhya Pradesh is an average performing State (see RBI Stats) under the 15 year BJP rule with its peak between 2008 and 2013. However, since then the State has struggled and therefore this was a great chance for the Congress party. Further, unlike Chhattisgarh, Congress has strong names in the form of Scindia. However, Congress party has two main barriers here too. One, voters in Madhya Pradesh do not shift votes en masse easily. Congress needs to gain at least 5% points while BJP must lose atleast 2.5% for the Congress party to win the election. This has occurred once in the last 25 years and may occur again but the statistical probability is low. Further, while things haven't been great for many farmers over the last few years, they may still want to give Shivraj another try. I have seen the turnout data and contrary to everyone I feel it is not good for the BJP. But beyond that it is pure guesswork. I see a BJP Govt in Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan

This is a very poorly governed States struggling on most metrics over the last 5 years. But the big advantage for the BJP is the huge swing required for the Congress to win this. It needs about 7% swing to scrape through, a huge task. It is not an impossible task but not sure if this will happen. Also, Congress has not crossed 96 Seats in the last 3 elections so one will be surprised if they do extraordinarily well. I am predicting on a slight Congress advantage but unsure if that means they will win a majority.

Telangana

This is a State I am very familiar with. KCR has covered most of his voting bases and though the alliance will give a tough fight, I still see a KCR Government after the election Why? Telangana is one of the fastest growing economies in the country. While Farmers have struggled like everywhere else, KCR covered this flank with a loan waiver followed by cash for input costs. Low Defections amongst Urban Voters (due to growth) and amongst farmers due to various inputs will make it quite difficult for the Opposition to beat TRS. Further, KCR has strong personal branding unmatched by anyone in the Opposition.

Overall, it does not look like it will be a brilliant night for any party. All the scraping will leave every party battered. Clear victories for the Congress or the BJP while unexpected (atleast to me) will change the direction of our Politics. The question is in what way?

My Past 5 years Strike Rate (Including 3 Foreign Elections)

Fails = 30%, Success = 30%, Directionally Correct = 40%