Who Will Harris Choose?

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's first test is selecting a running mate. Vice President Harris's team has signaled they are vetting a handful of candidates, and I expect a decision before the virtual roll call of DNC delegates on August 7. Former President Trump doubled down on his MAGA worldview with the selection of Senator Vance last week, but Harris has an opportunity to choose someone who brings unique strengths and helps balance the ticket.

Suppose Harris chooses one of the four governors on her shortlist. In that case, it will be the first time Democrats have nominated a sitting governor since Chares Bryan of Nebraska (brother of William Jennings Bryan) in 1924. Governors across the country saw their approval ratings skyrocket for handling COVID. This might allow one of these guys to contrast their success with the Trump administration's response to the pandemic.

The first rule in choosing a VP nominee is to do no harm. Usually, running mates make a negligible difference, but this year might be different, given the latest ticket shakeup in history. A weak candidate can certainly hurt, as John McCain learned in 2008.

Here are a few thoughts on what each leading candidate might bring to the Democratic ticket.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly

• Kelly won two hard-fought Senate races in Arizona, a swing state. In his races, Kelly won over independent and a significant chunk of Republican voters.
• He is a former astronaut and Naval aviator, which adds a unique and prestigious background to the ticket.
• Kelly transcended the partisan divide in Arizona with his star power and strong appeal on the campaign trail.
• Kelly brings fundraising prowess, which could help make Arizona's 11 electoral votes more winnable for Harris.
• Kelly's military service, including combat missions in Operation Desert Storm, adds a countering credential to JD Vance's military service.
• His personal story is tied to a tragic event involving his wife, Gabrielle Giffords, which could resonate with voters.
• Kelly could provide a counterbalance on immigration, a weak issue for Democrats, given his stance on border security and the humane treatment of migrants.
• If the Harris-Kelly ticket is successful, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs would appoint a new senator, adding a competitive seat to the Senate map.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

• Shapiro was elected two years ago and is a rising star in the Democratic Party. He has a strong track record of electoral success, outrunning Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in his elections.
• Shapiro's victory margin in his election was 15 points, which was larger than that of other candidates in similar races.
• A Morning Consult survey shows he has a 56% favorability rating.
• Shapiro is known for his crisis management skills, as demonstrated when he successfully handled a significant highway collapse in Philadelphia.
• Shapiro's victory in Pennsylvania is crucial for Democrats due to its 19 electoral votes.
• He has a history of appealing to many voters, including Trump voters and independents.
• He could counterbalance Harris's perception as a "San Francisco liberal" and appeal to blue-collar voters.
• Shapiro brings a deep Jewish faith, criticism of anti-Israel protesters, and actions against encampments at the University of Pennsylvania, which will help and hurt with different parts of the Democratic coalition.
• If Shapiro becomes vice president, his lieutenant governor, Austin Davis, would take over as Pennsylvania's first Black lieutenant governor and youngest ever.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear

• Despite leading a state that voted for Trump by 26 points, Beshear is the most popular Democratic governor in the country, with a 67% approval rating.
• He is uniquely familiar with Kentucky voters and has shown strong leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Beshear's political pedigree, including his father being a former governor, adds to his appeal.
• Beshear is the youngest contender on Harris's shortlist at 46 years old.
• His ability to transcend party lines and connect with GOP voters could be valuable in appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.
• Beshear has openly auditioned for the running mate role and has actively attacked potential opponents, showcasing his readiness for a national campaign.
• The contrast with JD Vance, particularly regarding rural and geographical background, is a role Beshear would relish.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper

• Cooper has a track record of outperforming the top of the ticket in presidential years in North Carolina. Cooper brings a proven ability to connect with voters and hold onto even Trump voters.
• He is an affable, grandfatherly figure with centrist appeal and sharp political instincts. Cooper's Southern charm could be an appealing counterbalance to Harris's portrayal as a "West Coast liberal."
• Cooper has experience serving as North Carolina's attorney general, in the state House and Senate, and as majority leader.
• He successfully pushed for Medicaid expansion in North Carolina, showcasing his ability to work across party lines with a Republican legislature.
• He is in his final few months in the governor's office, meaning there is no downside risk for Democrats in picking him.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

• Walz was elected governor in 2018 and reelected in 2022, currently serving as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.
• Walz recently emerged as a dark horse vice presidential pick.
• He is an Air National Guard veteran, former high school social studies teacher, and football coach.
• Walz has pushed through a progressive policy agenda in Minnesota, including abortion rights, paid family and medical leave, voting rights restoration for felons, transgender protections, and affordable housing expansions.
• Recent polls show that Walz has a 55% approval rating in Minnesota.
• His small-town, Midwest sensibilities and approach could help in other "Blue Wall" states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
• If picked, Walz's lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, would assume office, making her the country's highest-ranking Native American woman in executive office.