Who Will Vote?

Two years ago today, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, moving the fight over abortion access to the state level. Democrats are marking the second anniversary of the Dobbs decision with a full-court press against Republicans. In the two years since the dismantling of nearly five decades of abortion-rights precedent, voters have consistently voiced support for abortion access. Since the ruling, citizen-led reproductive rights protections have passed in red and blue states. By putting reproductive rights at the center of their campaign messaging, Democrats in challenging races have found success. At the same time, Republican candidates have struggled to find a message that resonates with voters.

This fall, voters across the country will decide on several ballot measures determining the level of legal protections in their states. Abortion measures have qualified for the November ballot in Colorado, Florida, Maryland, and South Dakota. A measure was previously on the ballot in New York that would have expanded the state's equal rights amendment to prohibit discrimination-based pregnancy outcomes and gender identity, but a judge struck it from the ballot due to a procedural error.

Constitutional Amendments

In Colorado and Maryland, abortion is already legal through state law, but proposed constitutional amendments placed on the ballot by state legislators would fortify those protections. Organizers in Colorado hope to pass a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive rights. The amendment's language would also expand access, allowing Coloradans on public health insurance -- including state employees and those on Medicaid -- to have the procedure covered. A 1984 law currently prohibits "public employees and people on public insurance from using their insurance to cover abortion. Maryland voters could enshrine the right to abortion and other reproductive rights in the state's constitution, making it more difficult for antiabortion legislation to take effect in the future.

South Dakota

Dakotans for Health is attempting to pass a constitutional amendment in South Dakota that would guarantee the right to an abortion in the first trimester. Regulation could begin in the second trimester, and abortions would be banned in the third trimester unless the patient's physical health is at risk. Current state law prohibits abortions, with no exceptions for rape and incest.

Florida

In May, Florida's six-week abortion ban took effect once the state Supreme Court cleared the way for its enforcement. The ban has severely curtailed reproductive rights in the state and the southeast, with North Carolina and Virginia currently the only Southern states that offer abortion after six weeks -- a point before most even know they are pregnant. The Sunshine State's ballot initiative would enshrine the right to an abortion until viability or around 24 weeks in the state constitution. Supporters have an uphill battle ahead of them, with a 60 percent supermajority required for the initiative to pass.

Efforts to Protect Access

Nevada, Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, Arkansas, and Arizona are still attempting to codify abortion protections in state constitutions.

Nevada

Currently, abortion is legal in Nevada until 24 states, but the ballot initiative would add additional protections. Organizers have collected and filed signatures with the Secretary of State's office. Constitutional amendments must pass in two consecutive election cycles to become law, so Nevada voters are voting to place the initiative on the ballot in 2026. Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is one of the most endangered incumbents up for election this year, and she signed onto the ballot initiative, so the results of the Silver State election will be instructive.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State will witness competing ballot initiatives this fall. Reproductive rights advocates have collected signatures to guarantee the right of abortion until viability, while abortion foes are pushing for a vote banning all abortions after the first trimester, about 13 weeks.

Montana

Montana is also the locus for a Senate race that will determine the majority in the Senate, with Democratic Senator Jon Tester a key target for Republicans. Abortion is currently legal until viability, but the proposed constitutional amendment would make it more difficult for Republicans' repeated efforts to restrict abortion access to succeed, codifying Montanans' right to make "their own reproductive decisions about pregnancy and abortion."

Missouri

Missouri has one of the strictest abortion laws in the country, outlawing the procedure in nearly all circumstances. The proposed constitutional amendment does not include a viability ban but would allow the GOP-controlled legislature to regulate abortion after fetal viability.

Arkansas

Arkansas is often labeled the "most pro-life state in the nation," so attempts to expand abortion access face intense opposition on the ground, so this may be the most challenging test for reproductive rights advocates. Currently, Arkansas bans all abortions with no exception for rape or incest. The proposed amendment would establish a right to an abortion up to 18 weeks.

Arizona

Ever since the state Supreme Court made an 1864 near-total abortion ban enforceable in the wake of the Dobbs decision, Arizona has been a flashpoint for abortion rights. A bipartisan group of legislators gathered the votes to reverse the ban, which means that the 15-week ban enacted in 2022 became the state's prevailing law, with no exception for rape or incest. Arizonans for Abortion Access gathered signatures to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot guaranteeing abortion access to viability. Although nothing official has been announced, I've heard rumors that Republicans may place more restrictive proposals on the fall ballot.

Efforts to Restrict Access

In Pennsylvania and Iowa, legislators are attempting to place amendments on the ballot that would make it explicit that there is no right to abortion in the state constitution. Still, I don't think either effort has found much traction.

Turnout

Democrats hope these ballot initiatives in some key states will drive voter turnout as in the 2022 midterms. Since then, the scope of the conversation has widened to include other areas of reproductive rights that could be under threat. Access to medication abortions, in-vitro fertilization services, and the legal protections pregnant women have when their life is at risk in an emergency room are up for grabs in a post-Dobbs world.

While the Biden campaign and Democrats attempt to revive similar energy on this issue, voters are far less likely to hear something negative about abortion access these days. Even though similar shares of voters cast abortion as "very important" to their votes as they did two years ago, I doubt the same political dynamics will unfold naturally. Three-quarters of voters hold the Supreme Court responsible for curtailing abortion rights, while two-thirds hold Republicans in Congress accountable, and 58% hold Donald Trump responsible. For Democrats to revive similar energy around reproductive rights this time, they will need to double down on advertising to more broadly publicize efforts taking place at the state level and lean into targeting states like Arizona, where the issue is raw and on the state ballot.