Why does Australia need another think-tank?

Fragmented world

Stating that the world has changed since my last letter would have been a tired cliché. Only in this case it is true.

The war in Ukraine has indeed dramatically upended the global order.

It has laid bare the myth that violent, high-casualty warfare belonged to the 20th century, and that a new wall between democracies and dictatorships in Europe is unthinkable.

 It has also revealed the contours of a fragmented world: on one side, in Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s words – “a new arc of autocracy” represented by China and Russia. On the other – a “collective global West” bound by democratic values. In the middle – numerous states, many in Asia, that do not want to choose sides.

Our citizens are confronting the reality that the governments’ decision-making about their future is likely to be much faster and more secretive than it has been since the end of World War II. 

We accepted with little debate a dramatic increase in investment in our defence capabilities, and a further deeper enmeshment of Australia in the U.S. security system in the past 12 months. 

Regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, it will accelerate a profound global fragmentation – along ideological, economic and technological lines.

It is not surprising. The war in Ukraine – while far away from our shores – reverberates across the globe, including in Asia. It is challenging the rules-based international system that we helped to build and which we have relied on so heavily for decades. It is disrupting the global economy, still fragile from the pandemic shocks. More importantly, we are confronted by deaths, destruction and the immense suffering of Ukrainian people daily on our screens.

Australia in a divided Asia?

The effects of such division are likely to be quite significant in the Indo-Pacific, the world’s most dynamic region, where both the United States and China are locked in security and economic competition. Both China and the U.S. are busy building alternate institutions, coalitions and networks to advance or reinforce their respective positions in Asia. And the war in Ukraine and the scale of Western sanctions on Russia have added immense impetus for decoupling of their economic systems, standards and technologies.

This is not good news for Australia and many of our partners in Asia. While we made our security choices, our economic connectivity with Asia in the age of fragmentation could be tested severely.

In 2022 it is easy to dismiss the impact of Asia’s rise on global prosperity. Despite the pandemic, war and climate emergency, Asia’s economic power continues to grow – 40 per cent of the world’s GDP, 59 per cent of the world’s population, and 7 out of 10 of Australia’s top trading partners are in the region.

But Asia today is also the epicentre of the global geostrategic and geoeconomic competition, threatening to unleash conflict and unravel the rules-based order that made Australia safe and prosperous.

“We are living in a world where the economy and security are truly merging”, said Kobayashi Takayuki on his commencement in the newly created role of Japan’s inaugural Minister for Economic Security.

As we said in our Asia Taskforce report, both economic and geopolitical forces push Australia closer to Asia, to benefit from its growth and to shape its security architecture – a highly complex trajectory to navigate.  

 A think tank for 21st century Australia

 It has never been more important for Australian leaders to appreciate and anticipate these forces. It is also vital that Australia’s thinking about the region is shaped collectively through active and open dialogue between business, government and civil society.

There is currently no institution in Australia dedicated primarily to examining Australia’s economic engagement with Asia together with the geopolitical competition in the region as parts of one operating theatre in which Australia is one of the actors. 

 Such an institution must bring together voices from business and government. It must lead a discussion about the kind of leaders and new talent Australia needs to navigate a complex and fragmented Asia. It must be a substantive, multidisciplinary, integrated public policy centre with a sharp focus on Asia and Australia’s evolving role and place in the region.

 Asia Society Australia is on the path to become such an institution.

For 25 years, we have been a convening and membership platform for Australian business, government and academia. Today, we are Australia’s leading national centre on Asia with a broad agenda.

But to take our organisation to the next level and to help Australia navigate a contested Asia, we need to be ambitious and focused on our strengths.

That is why our vision is to become Australia’s leading business and policy think-tank dedicated to Asia by 2026.

We want to create an institution that hosts the best minds in the fields of trade, economy, foreign policy and leadership, and which examines how these verticals interact and influence our security and prosperity.

It will be the institution that connects business, government and universities to find shared solutions to challenges and opportunities in Asia.

It will be the institution with a global DNA which brings voices from Australia, Asia and beyond, and is underpinned by values of excellence, diversity, independence and respect for difference of opinion.

It will be the institution made accessible across Australia and beyond by the power of digital technologies.

 It will be the institution built on the belief that Australia’s foreign policy is not an exclusive domain of governments, but the core business for all of us: our companies, universities and state governments.

It will be a think tank for 21st century Australia. We want to build an institution that helps Australia not just survive but thrive in Asia. Please join us.

Sincerely,

Philipp Ivanov, CEO Asia Society Australia

(This is a section of my monthly letter to Asia Society Australia Members, April 2022)