Credible Future Studies Methods

CREDIBLE FUTURE STUDIES
METHODS
An Overview of methods used in Future Studies or Strategic Foresight enabling
Organisations to engage in effective Forward Planning
NOVEMBER 4, 2014
STRATSERV CONSULTANCY
51 Goldhill Plaza #07-10/11 Singapore 308900

CREDIBLE FUTURE STUDIES METHODS
Page 1 of 7
CCCCONTENTSONTENTSONTENTSONTENTS
1. Purpose 2
2. How Future Studies Methods are used: A note to readers 3
3. Environmental Scanning Method 4
4. Morphological Analysis Method 4
5. Scenario Planning Method 5
6. Monitoring Method 5
7. Content Analysis Method 5
8. Back-view Mirror Analysis Method 6
9. Cross-impact Analysis Method 6
10. Failure Mode And Effects Analysis Method 6
11. Futures Wheel Method 6
12. Social Network Analysis Method 6
13. Trend Analysis Method 7
14. About Stratserv Consultancy And Contact Information 7

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1.1.1.1. PPPPURPOSEURPOSEURPOSEURPOSE
1.1 This document explains in brief the commonly used objective methods used by Professional
Futurists to derive or determine possible Future Scenarios, Convergences, Impacts and other
Miscellaneous Forecasts that are used by Organisations for various purposes including but not
limited to the following:
Mid-term / Corporate Long-term Strategy
Product Planning & Development
Risk Assessment & Mitigation
Innovation
Strategic Decisions
Project Management
Manpower / Human Resource Planning
Budgeting / Financial Forecasting
Merger & Acquisition Decisions
1.2 This document has been prepared for pro bono dissemination by Stratserv Consultancy to
educate stakeholders on the professionally logical credibility and practicality of the methods
employed by Futurists or Foresight Practitioners in the course of their research, analysis and
forecasting.
1.3 Although Strategic Foresight or Future Studies as a Professional Field has been around since the
end of the 2nd
World War at least, private organisations at least remain largely unaware of its
necessity, application, strategic value and methodical credibility.
1.4 Strategic Foresight or Future Studies is also largely undervalued or underestimated especially in
the private sector, in turn especially in the East (Asia), due to the lack of awareness of the
complex nature of methods and processes involved.
1.5 This document aims to educate the reader on the multi-disciplinary methods used in varying
combinations in varying contexts for varying forecasting purposes by Strategic Foresight
Professionals or Professional Futurists. As such, this document also aims to assist the reader in a
developing a more suitable perception of Strategic Foresight or Future Studies as a critical
Corporate / Organisational function and factor in any worthwhile strategy / policy for the Mid-
term / Long-term period.
1.6 The methods listed and explained in this documents are not exhaustive as Futurists and Strategic
Foresight Practitioners employ a rather broad variety tools and techniques for various
Forecasting purposes. However, some of the most widely and frequently used methods are
included in this document.

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2.2.2.2. HHHHOWOWOWOW FFFFUTUREUTUREUTUREUTURE SSSSTUDIESTUDIESTUDIESTUDIES MMMMETHODS ARE USEDETHODS ARE USEDETHODS ARE USEDETHODS ARE USED:::: AAAA NOTE TO READERSNOTE TO READERSNOTE TO READERSNOTE TO READERS
2.1 No single method in Future Studies suffices for the purpose of any particular Forecasting effort,
on or in its own. Any such exercise, effort or project requires the application of a combination of
multiple methods.
2.2 Different methods or different combination of methods need to be employed for different types
of Forecasting or Future Studies efforts, exercises or projects.
2.3 It is possible that different combinations of different types of methods employed by different
Futurists may lead to similar outcomes or forecasts. This, provided that the methods and the
combinations of methods employed are applied appropriately.
2.4 A Professional Futurist or Strategic Foresight Practitioner needs to be competent in knowing
which methods need to be included, in combination with each other, to ensure credible or
valuable outcomes. The Practitioner needs to be competent in knowing which method will
redundant in a particular effort or exercise, for which it should be omitted.
2.5 Each individual method requires the Practitioner to possess a particular set of competencies in
order to pursue it appropriately and adequately. Inaptitude in any particular method in a
combination applied for forecasting will likely render in the outcomes unreliable, invalid or
ineffective.
2.6 All Futurists or Strategic Foresight Practitioners have to be well-versed and apt at applying
Systems Thinking to all research and analysis they engage in, including in the application of any
Future Studies method employed. Without the effective application of Systems Thinking, the
Future Studies methods cannot reliably lead to intended Future Studies outputs.

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3.3.3.3. EEEENVIRONMENTALNVIRONMENTALNVIRONMENTALNVIRONMENTAL SSSSCACACACANNINGNNINGNNINGNNING MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Environmental Scanning is usually the first step or method employed in any Future Studies exercise or
project. Of all the Future Studies methods employed by Futurists or Strategic Foresight Practitioners,
Environment Scanning, along with Monitoring, is the most commonly and the most frequently used.
Environmental Scanning involves broad and detailed research. Information is gathered from a myriad of
literature sources.
The purpose of Environmental Scanning is to collect and table / list all possible factors that may or are
likely to affect the strategy for which the forecast or projection exercise is intended.
Environmental Scanning involves the scanning and analysis of the environment at multiple levels. It
includes identification and analysis of shifts, trends, events, issues and interests. Environmental
Scanning requires the consideration and analysis of the following factors:
Political
Economical
Socio-Cultural
Technological
Environmental (as in sustainability, nature, climate, etc)
Legal
4.4.4.4. MMMMORORORORPHOLOGICALPHOLOGICALPHOLOGICALPHOLOGICAL AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Morphological Analysis is a problem-solving framework that is applied to address complex multi-
dimensional and non-quantifiable problems. Options of various solutions are mapped on a grid and then
with Cross Consistency Assessment, illogical Solutions are eliminated to narrow the options down to
those that are logical. This method can also be used to stimulate alternative solutions to fill the gaps not
filled by other alternatives already being viewed or considered.
In this methods, users work backwards from output to system internals. Users also analyse the
interactions and relations between factors or components within the system.

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5.5.5.5. SSSSCENARIOCENARIOCENARIOCENARIO PPPPLANNINGLANNINGLANNINGLANNING MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Of all the Futurist or Strategic Foresight methods, Scenario Planning is the best known and most
commonly taught at universities around the world, across a variety of disciplines. Scenario Planning is
widely used by Government, Military and Corporate personnel for all types of strategy formulation and
decision making. It is also one of the most common and frequently used methods for Futurists or
Strategic Foresight Practitioners.
A scenario, in “Scenario Planning”, is a possibility, one of many, that may play out in the future period,
or time-frame being planned for. These possibilities are derived from trends and events of the past to
the present. Strategies or decisions are drawn upon what best meets the most likely possibilities along
with contingencies, whether for the known or the unknown.
6.6.6.6. MMMMONITORINGONITORINGONITORINGONITORING MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Of all the Future Studies methods employed by Futurists or Strategic Foresight Practitioners, Monitoring,
along with Environment Scanning, is the most commonly and the most frequently used.
Monitoring requires the Futurist or Strategic Foresight Practitioner constantly scan for, detect, project,
assess / evaluate, respond to and track events as they occur, as well as follow their impacts.
Regardless the dynamics of any Futurist’s or Strategic Foresight Practitioner’s average workday, this
method features as a necessary daily routine.
7.7.7.7. CCCCONTENTONTENTONTENTONTENT AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Content analysis is also a common method used. This method entails objective and systematic scrutiny,
interpretation and analysis of messages with potential for future impact or implications, whether
expressed explicitly, implicitly or subliminally.
The content or rather messages in the content analysed could be expressed in the form of printed text
or audio or video. The media over which the message or content is released could be intended for the
masses or a limited group. The purpose of the message or content dissemination could be anything,
whether it is for news, public education, political propaganda or entertainment. What is important, is
the potential of the message, to hold impact or implications in the time ahead.
This method goes hand-in-hand with daily Monitoring that Futurists or Strategic Foresight Practitioners
engage in, should and when their scanning efforts surface content of interest.

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8.8.8.8. BBBBACKACKACKACK----VIEWVIEWVIEWVIEW MMMMIRRORIRRORIRRORIRROR AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Back-view Mirror Analysis involves qualitative analysis of the past, using both qualitative and
quantitative date (i.e., past statistics). This method helps to trace origins and timelines of a development
to help users construct the progress of that development ahead. Noted outcomes from analysis of the
past can also help the user identify possible outcome scenarios ahead.
9.9.9.9. CCCCROSSROSSROSSROSS----IMPACTIMPACTIMPACTIMPACT AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Trends and events are interdependent. From the method of Cross-impact Analysis, chains of causality
emerge. The user is able to identify the convergence of interdependent events, trends and elements
that lead to an outcome in the past. The user is also able to forecast or map the convergence of
interdependent events, elements, developments and trends, to project types of possible outcomes and
their possible time-frames.
10.10.10.10. FFFFAILUREAILUREAILUREAILURE MMMMODE ANDODE ANDODE ANDODE AND EEEEFFECTSFFECTSFFECTSFFECTS AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
In this method, potential failures are examined. This method is particularly useful when forecasting for
risk management or product commercialisation or a new market entry. Users can construct remedial
measures for embedding into strategies to mitigate possible threats, obstacles or failures ahead.
This method first emerged in the field of Systems Engineering.
11.11.11.11. FFFFUTURESUTURESUTURESUTURES WWWWHEELHEELHEELHEEL MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
The Futures Wheel is used to chart out the secondary and tertiary level outcomes of trends and events.
The aim of this method is to understand the ripple effects of a trend, event or development. It is simple
method but requires a competent practitioner to apply it objectively. Without optimum objectivity, this
method will not deliver the results it otherwise has the potential to.
12.12.12.12. SSSSOCIALOCIALOCIALOCIAL NNNNETWORKETWORKETWORKETWORK AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
This is a technique that is wide used in a wide range of fields, disciplines and professions. This is one of
the most complex methods used by Futurists or Strategic Foresight Practitioners, in which a myriad of
factors or issues are explored.
With Social Network Analysis, a user is able to predict individual behaviours, group behaviours,
organisational behaviours, societal behaviours and changing consumer preferences. To illustrate how
powerful this method is, take for example, that is possible to project outcomes of national elections with
the application of this method.

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13.13.13.13. TTTTRENDRENDRENDREND AAAANALYSISNALYSISNALYSISNALYSIS MMMMETHODETHODETHODETHOD
Trend Analysis is another common method widely used across trades and professions. Futurists and
Strategic Foresight Practitioners apply this hand-in-hand with the daily Monitoring as and when a trend
of interest or with long-term implications is identified.
Trend Analysis for Future projection can be both quantitative and qualitative.
14.14.14.14. AAAABOUTBOUTBOUTBOUT SSSSTRATSERVTRATSERVTRATSERVTRATSERV CCCCONSULTANCYONSULTANCYONSULTANCYONSULTANCY AAAANDNDNDND CCCCONTACTONTACTONTACTONTACT IIIINFORMATIONNFORMATIONNFORMATIONNFORMATION
Stratserv Consultancy is a Singapore registered Management Consulting practice founded and managed
by Singapore’s first local born Professional Futurist, Harish Shah, offering a broad range of Strategy
Consulting services, with Strategic Foresight as its core strength.
Stratserv Consultancy leverages on a strong strategic global network consisting of established
Professional Futurists, Management Consultants, Thought Leaders, Academics and Captains of Industry
to ensure quality inputs to clients.
Stratserv Consultancy has also forged Strategic Market Alliances with a list of emerging and unique
Consulting service providers internationally to leverage on complementing competencies.
Apart from being Singapore’s first local born Professional Futurists, Harish Shah is one of the youngest in
the profession worldwide. His name has become synonymous with Strategic Foresight or Future Studies
in Asia and he known globally as “The Singapore Futurist”. He has fast established himself as a key point
of reference for long-term visioning especially in the areas of New & Emerging Technologies and future
Business Models.
Harish Shah’s Futurist articles and commentaries have widely been published in Asia, North America and
Europe.
To contact Stratserv Consultancy, you may call Harish Shah directly at +65 94510637 or email him at
harish_shah@stratservconsultancy.com
You may visit Stratserv Consultancy’s website at www.stratservconsultancy.com

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