Deutsch-Ukrainisches Büro (DUB) GmbH

After months of collaboration with our friends from the Evangelische Akademie Loccum, we hosted the expert conference, “A Decade of War: When and How Might the Russian War Against Ukraine End?” From December 9 to 11, we brought together around 60 distinguished speakers and participants from Ukraine, the EU, and the U.S. to reflect on the past three years of full-scale invasion and the ten years of Russia’s war against Ukraine while looking ahead to what lies in the year to come and how ways out of this war can look like and be secured by Ukrainians partners. Experts shared their insights on how geopolitical realities have shifted for Ukraine in key partner countries, from the U.S. to Europe. Together, we explored scenarios involving a Trump-driven push for negotiations, floated “peace plans,” and discussed key personnel decisions. The key takeaway remains clear: in any scenario, Europe will need to bolster its own defense efforts, as well as its support and potential security guarantees for Ukraine. Encouragingly, despite the ongoing election campaign in Germany, public support for Ukraine remains strong, and the four centrist parties agree on the need to continue backing Ukraine in the coming year. However, the critical question remains whether Germany can scale up its efforts should the U.S. reduce its military presence in Europe or its assistance to Ukraine. As the battlefield pressure intensifies and international partners increasingly urge Ukraine to prepare for negotiations, we examined Russia’s stance. Several experts stressed that there are no indications of Russia’s willingness to engage in good-faith negotiations. While Western partners see negotiations as a means to end the war, Russia under Vladimir Putin continues to use negotiations as a tool to achieve its war objectives, which remain focused on undermining Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty. Despite a challenging situation on the battlefield, Ukraine’s resistance remains resolute. As of late 2024, Russia controls only about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, compared to around 7 percent before the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Polls indicate that Ukrainians remain firmly opposed to territorial concessions, though a plurality now believes that negotiations may be necessary. Any solutions, such as a ceasefire, must be safeguarded by credible security guarantees. The best security guarantee for Ukraine remains full NATO membership, which is unlikely during the hot-phase of the war. That is why models of security guarantees and different partner contributions to those were discussed. The central question remains how a future Russian aggression can be prevented and deterred. We thank the U.S. Embassy Berlin, Brot für die Welt and Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung for their financial support in making this event possible and look forward to continuing this joint strategizing for Ukraine in the year ahead.

Months of collaboration with our friends at the Evangelische Akademie Loccum are now culminating in our joint conference, “A Decade of War: When and How Might the Russian War Against Ukraine End?” From December 9 to 11, we will gather with distinguished speakers and participants from Ukraine, the EU, and the U.S. to reflect on the past decade and strategize for the challenging year ahead in a closed-door setting. Full program 👇 https://lnkd.in/dDHc32RH We made this event on purpose only for in-person participation. But we promise to share short summary afterwards.

Heute Abend veranstaltet die Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Hessen in Frankfurt/Main eine Podiumsdiskussion unter dem Titel: "Wie hat sich die Ukraine seit dem Kriegsbeginn 2014 verändert?" Unsere Kollegin Tetiana Lopashchuk wird zusammen mit Andreas Heinemann-Grüder vom Global Public Policy Institute (GPPI) und Johannes Voswinkel, Leiter der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Ukraine, die wichtigsten Entwicklungen beleuchten. Tetiana wird dabei insbesondere auf die Rolle und die Herausforderungen der ukrainischen Zivilgesellschaft eingehen. Die Veranstaltung beginnt um 19:00 Uhr im Ökohaus, Kasselerstr. 1A Mehr Details zur Veranstaltung: https://lnkd.in/e5uF9wAa

📌 After weeks of cooperation with our partners from Democracy Reporting International Oleksandr Iakymenko, we hosted the workshop and evening discussion “Democracy at War: Resilience and Future of Ukraine’s Democratic Institutions” on 26 November 2024. Together with over 90 distinguished experts, journalists, activists, and officials from Ukraine and Germany, we discussed the state of the institutions, media, civil society, and local self-governance under martial law and pressure of war.   10 years of war and over 1000 days of the full-scale invasion continue to threaten Ukrainian democracy and its institutions. Despite the existential threat and numerous challenges the martial law poses, Ukraine and its democratic institutions remain intact.  The workshops with the experts were held off the record, but we plan to publish a short summary of the conference in the coming weeks. ▶️ For those who missed it, a recording of the public discussion in the evening is available on the event page: https://lnkd.in/eJ5hyBMN 📖 To make the discussions substantive, the conference was informed by the 2024 report, Ukrainian Democratic Institutions During the Wartime, produced by DRI in partnership with the Centre of Policy and Legal Reform and the Reanimation Package of Reforms Coalition (find the link in the comments).  🤝 Thanks to everyone involved, especially our partner Democracy Reporting International! The conference was the part of the DRI’s Ukraine-DARE project supported by the German Federal Foreign Office. 📸 Photos by Pavlo Slobodnychenko Mattia Nelles Inna Nelles (Borzylo) Tetiana Lopashchuk Yaroslav Yurchyshyn

1️⃣ 0️⃣ 0️⃣ 0️⃣ ➕ days have passed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a war that has been going on for nearly 4000 days. 10 years of brutal war in the center of Europe, on the end of which the future of the continent depends. So - When and How the Russian War Against Ukraine Might End?” is the topic of our conference, which we are organizing together with the Evangelische Akademie Loccum on December 9-11. Together with some of the leading analysts and activists from Ukraine and the EU we will discuss the new geopolitical realities and how the war can and should be ended, and how support for Ukraine can be strengthened. 🖊️ We still have a few places left, so if you are interested, we invite you to register here - https://cutt.ly/IeGNNl3X

One day before our own workshop on “Democracy in War”, our co-founders Mattia Nelles and Inna Nelles (Borzylo) are taking part in the important discussions on “Navigating Ukraine’s EU Acession: Aligning Security and Integration Strategies” hosted by our friends from the Bertelsmann Foundation and the LibMod - Zentrum Liberale Moderne with experts and officials from Ukraine, Poland, the Nordic countries and Germany. The fundamental question discussed is how the technical EU accession process, designed for peacetime countries, can be aligned or complimented with enhanced security cooperation and security guarantees. Adequate and long-term security commitments for Ukraine remain a precondition for its survival, successful reforms and its EU membership.

Yesterday, our co-founder and CEO Mattia Nelles participated in the opening of the Odesa-Days of the city of Bremen on the invitation of Forschungsstelle Osteuropa an der Universität Bremen. The German City State of Bremen has a cooperation with the Odesa Region (Oblast). It was a lovely discussion and here are some of Mattia’s reflections 👇

🤝 Yesterday in Cologne, a warm atmosphere of partnership filled the gathering between Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and its sister region in Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk. Around 300 participants from Germany and Ukraine explored ways to deepen cooperation across various sectors, from boosting industrial investment - to advancing cultural and educational exchange. ✅ As part of the conference, DUB hosted a workshop focused on civil society's role in the inclusive, efficient, and green reconstruction of Dnipropetrovsk region. We extend our sincere gratitude to the speakers—some of whom traveled over 2,000 kilometers to share their valuable insights—who showcased the rich diversity of Ukrainian and German civil society and the powerful potential for its partnerships: 🔹 Dr. Monika Rosenbaum, Head of the Network Office for Women and Girls with Disabilities / Chronic Illness NRW 🔹 Iryna Chernysh, Head, Save Dnipro, NGO with a focus on the environment 🔹 Tetiana Tertychko, Civil Control Platform, Dnipro, Ukraine (anti-corruption NGO / local watchdog) 🔹 Igor Mitchnik, Managing Director, Austausch e.V. 🔹 Julia Chenusha, Managing Director, Blue Yellow Cross Moderated by Inna Nelles (Borzylo) and Mattia Nelles. We are convinced that it is at the level of activists, volunteers, and experts from Germany and Ukraine that true trusting and professional relations are born. The parties have a lot to learn from each other and this exchange of experience will be especially useful in the context of implementing European standards in the everyday life of Ukrainian communities. We are grateful to the City of Cologne and the Government of North Rhine-Westphalia for standing by Ukraine and for their long-term support in overcoming the current emergency, in rebuilding the country and its integration into the European Union. Yesterday's event is a vivid example of this!

Greetings from Cologne! Our co-founders Inna Nelles & Mattia Nelles are attending the Ukraine Conference of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) with over 400 participants, 100 of whom are from 🇺🇦. Our home state of NRW was the first 🇩🇪 state to sign a partnership with a 🇺🇦 Oblast Dnipropetrovsk. The idea is to help Ukeainian friends with humanitarian aid and the recovery and link up cities, towns, administrations, businesses, civil society, hospitals, utility companies etc. There is a lot that both sides can learn from each other 💛💙 Later today at 16:00 CET, we are moderating the panel on civil society that as the German-Ukrainian Bureau organized. Live stream 👇 https://lnkd.in/e3F9FBs7

💡 For those looking for interesting academic reading - This analysis "From Friendly Disinterest to Strategic Partnership? German–Ukrainian Relations Since the Full-Scale Russian Invasion" written by our CEO Mattia Nelles was just published in the German Politics and Society, Issue 142 Vol. 42, No. 2 (Summer 2024): 38–58, © Georgetown University and Berghahn Books. ✅ In the article, Mattia argues that since 2014, and especially after 2022, the German–Ukrainian relations have developed in an impressive depth. With over seven billion euros in military aid spent since 2022, another seven earmarked for 2024, and a long-term security agreement signed, Germany has become an indispensable and reliable partner for Ukraine. ❗ Given the dire situation on the battlefield and the prospect of a long and difficult war ahead, several factors impede the potential strategic relationship. If not addressed, those could prove a problem for the otherwise strong German support for and partnership with Ukraine. Follow the link in the comment to find out more ⤵