HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Wat zijn de belangrijkste bedreigingen voor de voedselzekerheid in de wereld? Welke innovaties kunnen de kans op honger wat kleiner maken en van welk strategisch belang is bijvoorbeeld de Nederlandse agrarische sector daarbij? Paul van Liempt praat er deze week in De Strateeg over met HCSS strategisch analist Laura Birkman en strategisch adviseur Frederik Vossenaar. Podcast De Strateeg is nu te horen bij BNR Nieuwsradio en in je favoriete podcast app! https://lnkd.in/eqeyNGui

It's no surprise that many around the world are celebrating the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. But those celebrations should be tempered, to a degree, by an important question, writes HCSS senior fellow Collin Meisel: What comes next? Read the full commentary at Modern War Institute at West Point (MWI). https://lnkd.in/eGdqDy2U

On December 11, 2024, HCSS strategic analyst Irina Patrahau provided a briefing for the Dutch House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on how Europe should deal with promoting (economic) security and countering strategic dependencies on third countries. The roundtable was held in response to Mario Draghi’s highly influential report, “The future of European competitiveness”, addressing European competitiveness and the future of the European Union. In preparation for her parliamentary expert testimony, Irina Patrahau wrote a position paper, “Economic security risks to Dutch and European competitiveness”, which can be downloaded here: https://lnkd.in/dqZZk_jR

On December 11, 2024, HCSS organised the third and final The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks, titled: 'The Future World Order’. We were joined by experts Dr. Mike Mazarr, Professor Roberta N. Haar and Mr. John Lee to explore the shifting dynamics of our global order from a North American, Southeast Asian and European perspective under the moderation of HCSS Director of Research Dr. T. (Tim) Sweijs.

Langzaam maar zeker worden de acties van Moskou en Peking agressiever, met hybride dreigingen en heuse oorlogsdaden. Een heldere bestuurlijke strategie hoe daarmee om te gaan is er niet, schrijft HCSS analist Gerben Bakker. De Nederlandse regering probeert al vergaderend werk te maken van een ‘weerbare samenleving’. Voorlopig blijft het bij een volstrekt onvoldoende en onuitgewerkt plan. De vraag is niet langer of we iets doen, maar hoe wij, en met name ook onze politieke leiders, reageren wanneer hybride acties echt oorlogsdaden worden. https://lnkd.in/d_Q9MZYH

Yesterday I had the pleasure to participate in a round table discussion on economic security and strategic dependencies in the Standing Committee on Economic Affairs of the Dutch House of Representatives. My three recommendations: 1. Push for the effective implementation of policies in a coordinated European way rather than the development of additional regulations in the field of raw materials, clean tech and advanced digital products. 2. Leverage energy and defence investments to establish de-risked supply chains for vital sectors. 3. Support an assessment of each member state’s comparative advantage and build on it. With Wimar Bolhuis from TNO and Rem Korteweg from The Clingendael Institute HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies You can find the recording and my position paper below: https://lnkd.in/dvGaaXZ4

Europa heeft met de recent ingevoerde importtarieven op elektrische auto’s (EV’s) China tegen de haren in gestreken, schrijft HCSS strategisch analist Ron Stoop. De handelsrelaties tussen Australië en China zijn na een aantal jaren van spanning sinds 2023 weer enigszins genormaliseerd. De vraag is echter of dit ook zal gaan gelden voor de handelsrelaties tussen China en de Europese Unie. https://lnkd.in/dw9aMhXa

On December 11, 2024, HCSS strategic analyst Irina Patrahau provided a briefing for the Dutch House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economic Affairs on “Increasing security and reducing dependencies”. Patrahau updated the Parliament members on how Europe should deal with promoting (economic) security and countering strategic dependencies on third countries. In preparation for her parliamentary expert testimony, Irina Patrahau wrote a position paper, “Economic security risks to Dutch and European competitiveness”. Rewatch the session and download the position paper here: https://lnkd.in/dqZZk_jR It was only with the Russian invasion of Ukraine that Europe really recognised the consequences of the growing tensions, Patrahau writes. Now, the dependencies on critical raw materials and advanced technologies are threatening to put the EU in a similar position. Such crises are likely to increase in frequency due to geopolitical tensions, so the EU’s core task is to ensure that the next crisis will not find it as unprepared as last time. Tensions are growing due to the ongoing war on the European continent and its potential spill-over into EU territory, conflict in the Middle East, a new US administration that is likely to aggravate global trade tensions, and increasing instability in the European neighbourhood. In response, the EU has been introducing new legislation and strategies since 2022, including the Chips Act, the Critical Raw Materials Act, and the European Defence Industrial Strategy. The hurdle remains effective implementation. Patrahau offers some policy recommendations: 1: Push for the effective implementation of policies in a coordinated European way rather than the development of additional regulations. In the field of raw materials, clean tech and advanced digital products, the EU has been successful in developing strong policies over the last few years. Now the focus should be placed on implementation and European coordination. 2: Leverage energy and defence investments to establish de-risked supply chains for vital sectors. Procurement is a key instrument that can support the development of domestic industrial capabilities, promote responsible sourcing in other countries, and increase supply chain transparency. Sectors that do not experience the same level of investments but that also need secure supply chains, like healthcare, can reap the benefits. 3: Support an assessment of each member state’s comparative advantage and build on it. Every EU member has its own industrial legacy and capabilities. By critically assessing their comparative advantage, domestic supply chains can be more rapidly and cost-effectively established. *** Rewatch the session and download the position paper here: https://lnkd.in/dqZZk_jR

Interesting discussions under moderation of HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Research Director Dr. T. (Tim) Sweijs, where Dr. Mike Mazarr (RAND,) Professor Roberta N. Haar (Maastricht University) and Mr. John Lee (East West Futures) explored the shifting dynamics of our global order. From the geopolitical implications of AI to the growing divide in priorities between the Global North and South, the discussions highlighted the urgent need for adaptable, inclusive, and collaborative approaches to shared challenges. 5 take-aways: 1️⃣ The decline of known global order: Traditional norms are eroding, demanding adaptable partnerships and new frameworks. 2️⃣ Short-termism rules: Immediate crises overshadow long-term strategies, risking greater instability. 3️⃣ EU at a crossroads: Without bold action, the block risks becoming a secondary player. 4️⃣ Private sector leadership: Businesses are stepping up, driving innovation and renewable energy transitions. 5️⃣ Global South priorities: Pragmatic solutions, like China’s EV projects, are reshaping partnerships in Africa and Asia. Difficult to predict what the world will look like in 2040, especially when the past two years alone have reshaped so much. The world I’m growing up in is already vastly different from the one my father knew. One thing is clear: these are pivotal times, and how we respond now will define the future.

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