Verisk Maplecroft

Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook is back! Drawing on our unique portfolio of country risk data, our Political Risk Outlook report decodes the complex issues shaping today’s global risk environment. From conflict and interstate tensions to protectionism and rising business costs, our in-depth analysis highlights the major political and geopolitical themes to watch and what they mean for your organisation. Read our our full analysis by downloading the report today: https://ow.ly/kfFP50U6EVx #politicalriskoutlook #riskdata #politicalrisk #geopolitics Verisk

Escalating trade barriers amid intensifying US-China tensions are seeing both countries shift their focus toward key ‘connector’ economies. Mexico and Vietnam have reaped significant benefits from their strong ties with both Washington and Beijing. Since 2018, they have increased their share of US imports while capturing a larger portion of Chinese exports and foreign direct investment. But both countries present unique challenges that pose increased operational and security risks for global businesses. Mexico’s major economic centres consistently fall into the highest risk category of our Crime Index, for example, while Vietnam ranks among the highest risk countries worldwide for several human and labour rights concerns. Read the full analysis: https://ow.ly/yjvh50UhbNw #politicalriskoutlook #trade #supplychain

Escalating trade restrictions and surging geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the US, have raised the cost of doing business globally to a 10-year peak, according to analysis from our Political Risk Outlook. Nowhere is more affected than Western democracies and their allies, where companies are bearing the brunt of rising tax burdens and increasing operational costs that have, in part, been exacerbated by their own countries’ protectionist policies. Major economies including Germany, the US, the UK, Japan and South Korea are among the most impacted. Read the full analysis: https://ow.ly/JeB250UhbHF #politicalriskoutlook #riskdata #politicalrisk #geopolitics #tariffs #trade

The correct answer to last week’s poll was sub-Saharan Africa. As revealed in our recent research, areas impacted by conflict in 14 countries across the Sahel and East Africa now equate to around 10% of sub-Saharan Africa’s overall land mass. The escalation is most pronounced in Burkina Faso, where 86% of the country is now embroiled in conflict between state forces and militants. Conflict areas in Sudan and Ethiopia have expanded by more than 20% and 30% respectively since 2021, while armed violence now affects 44% of Nigeria’s territory. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gibrkwQG

Our recent report on the spread of conflict globally has been featured by The Guardian. “Conflict risks are increasing, they have for the last few years and global businesses need to think about that,” said our Head of EMEA Hugo Brennan in an interview. “You can look at international media and think: ‘I don’t have a factory in Sudan, it does not affect me,’ but because of the supply chain impacts, a conflict in a faraway place can impact you.” Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/dy8qUHXN

Want to learn more about civil unrest risks in the US? Verisk's Emerging Issues team sat down with our principal analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt to discuss the trajectory of risk on our Strikes, Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) predictive model.

Research from our Political Risk Outlook shows that the share of territory impacted by conflict globally has increased by 65% in the past three years. The Middle East and Ukraine remain the most intense theatres of war, but our Conflict Intensity Index, which measures the severity of armed conflict at subnational levels across 198 countries, also provides valuable insight into countries and regions that are less well reported on. In total, 27 countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have seen a significant increase in risk on the index since 2021. However, in terms of area affected by conflict, Africa has seen a greater expansion than any other region. Read the full analysis: https://ow.ly/HViT50UcRwk #PoliticalRiskOutlook #RiskData #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #Conflict #Disruption

Analysis by Hugo Brennan and Mucahid Durmaz in our new Political Risk Outlook shows that 4.6% of the world’s landmass is now affected by conflict, a 65% increase from 2021. That is equivalent to 6.15 million sq km, nearly double the size of India, that is impacted by fighting between or within states, according to our Conflict Intensity Index (CII). The spread of violence is mirrored by rising casualty rates, with conflict deaths on course to breach 200,000 by the end of the year, up 29% on 2021. From the toll on human lives, increased migration and the widening of geopolitical faultlines, to the damaging economic impacts and threats to international trade and supply chains, the consequences of the upsurge are globally significant. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gibrkwQG #politicalriskoutlook #riskdata #politicalrisk #geopolitics #conflict #disruption

Research from our Political Risk Outlook shows that 27 countries have seen a significant increase in risk on our Conflict Intensity Index since 2021. All regions are impacted, including major emerging markets such as Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia, and Thailand.

The world is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Established alliances and traditional geopolitical arenas are shifting as strategic competition intensifies, bringing new uncertainties to global businesses. Our data indicates that political dynamics—from geopolitical tensions and conflicts to elections and trade—are escalating, establishing a higher baseline of risk for businesses worldwide. This elevated risk level is evident in the notable changes across the 64 indices in our Political Risk Data, which guide the issues covered in our new Political Risk Outlook. The central message is clear: geopolitics is, and will remain, the dominant force shaping the global risk landscape for businesses. In this webinar, we’ll take a closer look at several issues highlighted in our Political Risk Outlook, including: • How conflicts have changed in recent years and the main hotspots to monitor • The vulnerability of markets and critical industries to rising geopolitical tensions • The effects of global strategic competition on protectionism, trade, resource nationalism, and business costs 📅 15th January 2025 Register now: https://ow.ly/SU9Y50U9KYB #politicalriskoutlook #riskdata #politicalrisk #geopolitics