Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Carles Puigdemont, a leader of the pro-independence Catalan movement.
In Spain, one fight is over, while another has just begun
It was an enormously controversial political plan, and now the deed is done. On Thursday, Spain’s Congress approved a plan togrant amnesty to more than 300 Catalan nationalists, many of whom were involved in the failed 2017 Catalan secession referendum that Spanish courts ruled illegal. Among those now free of legal jeopardy is Carles Puigdemont, the organizer of that referendum, who avoided arrest only by fleeing the country to Brussels and later to Perpignan, just across the Spanish border in France.
The vote passed by an ultra-thin 177-172 margin. Those in favor included the governing PSOE; its coalition partner, Sumar; various Catalan, Basque, and Galician nationalist parties; and the far-left Podemos. Opposed were the center-right People’s Party, the far-right Vox, and other conservatives.
The deal was controversial from the start because Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez could not have formed a government after the last election without the backing of Catalan nationalist political parties — and those parties demanded this amnesty as a condition of their support. Opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has denounced the amnesty as “political corruption,” while Socialists insist the goal is political reconciliation.
The bottom line: Puigdemont can now safely cross the border from France, Catalan would-be separatists are again free to wage political battle, and the next fight over secession has begun.
FILE PHOTO: Spain's Socialist leader and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, accompanied by his wife Begona Gomez, applauds as he addresses supporters during the general election, in Madrid, Spain, July 23, 2023.
Spain’s Sanchez surprises with a siesta
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez posted a letter on social media Wednesday announcing he would suspend all his public duties and take a few days to consider resigning. Earlier in the day, a judge opened an investigation into his wife, Begoña Gómez, over corruption surrounding government tenders and subsidies. The court did not give specific details of its allegations.
In his letter, Sánchez accuses “ultraconservative” interests of pursuing a cynical smear campaign against his wife because Spanish voters rejected them at the ballot box last year. Gómez holds no official position and is not a politician, and Sánchez firmly denied there was any case for the court.
Nonetheless, he wrote that his love for her made him question whether it was all worth it. “I sincerely don’t know,” he wrote. “This attack is unprecedented, so serious and so vulgar that I must stop and reflect with my wife.”
Subordinate ministers and political allies are publicly backing Sánchez’s decision, but maybe not purely out of solidarity. The PM is a notorious risk-taker who managed to hold on to power against the odds last year by calling a snap election and then cobbling together a minority coalition. And wouldn’t you know it, there’s a crucial regional election on May 12 in wealthy, often separatist-leaning Catalonia.
A bit of sympathy for the PM’s wife certainly can’t hurt, can it?
Sánchez said he will announce his decision by Monday, April 29.
Spanish riot police officers stand guard during a protest, following acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's negotiations for granting an amnesty to people involved with Catalonia's failed 2017 independence bid, in Madrid, Spain, November 7, 2023.
In Spain, demonstrations turn violent
Right-wing protests against Spain’s governing Socialist Party erupted in violence this week as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez moved closer to a deal that would provide Catalan separatists with amnesty in exchange for providing him with the backing he needs to form a new coalition government and avoid fresh elections. Rioting in Madrid on Tuesday night injured 29 police officers and 10 demonstrators.
In July, the conservative People’s Party won the most votes in national elections, but party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo fell short in September of attracting enough coalition partners to form a government. Sánchez now appears on the verge of forming a center-left coalition that depends on support from the pro-independence Together for Catalonia and the Catalan Republican Left. In exchange for their support, they’ve demanded amnesty for several hundred Catalan politicians and activists in legal trouble following a failed drive in 2017 for Catalan secession from Spain.
Spain’s right-wing opposition accuses Sánchez of flip-flopping on the question of amnesty, which he once called “unconstitutional,” and blames him for the resulting violence, which looks likely to continue.
People wave separatist Catalan flags and placards during a demonstration following the imprisonment of Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Cuixart in Barcelona, Spain.
Why is Spain pardoning Catalan leaders jailed for sedition?
On Tuesday, Spain's leftwing coalition government will pardon nine Catalan politicians jailed over their failed attempt to secede from the rest of the country less than four years ago. It's a huge gamble for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who's fighting for his political survival against a majority of popular opinion, an opposition on the rise, the courts, and even part of the Catalan independence movement.
What's all the fuss about? The politicians were sentenced in December 2019 to lengthy prison terms for first organizing in October 2017 a referendum on independence, illegal under the Spanish constitution, and later unilaterally declaring independence. The national government responded to Catalonia's short-lived independence bid, which triggered Spain's most serious political crisis in decades, by (briefly) suspending the region's autonomy and arresting many of the separatist leaders.
Catalonia is a prosperous region in northeastern Spain with a long history of nationalist sentiment. Popular support for independence in Catalonia (source Spanish) has risen significantly since Spain's economic crisis in the early 2010s, but it remains just short of 50 percent. However, the country's political representation system — which favors nationalist parties — has allowed pro-independence coalitions to rule there for almost a decade, putting a lot of pressure on Madrid to allow them to vote on breaking away from Spain.
The PM knows the pardons are deeply unpopular. Just a week ago, tens of thousands of Spaniards who defend Spanish unity against Catalonia's dream of secession gathered in Madrid to protest the decision, calling out the PM for pandering to Catalan nationalists. Most Spaniards oppose granting clemency to those who attempted to break away from Spain: a recent survey found that more than 60 percent are against the move. (By contrast, roughly 70 percent of Catalans say it's the right thing to do.)
So, why is he doing this now? Sánchez, who needs the votes of Catalan nationalist parties in the Spanish parliament to stay in power, likely hopes the pardons can keep his already fragile coalition government intact long enough to get most of the population vaccinated against COVID and for the economy to rebound — thanks mainly to EU pandemic recovery funds — ahead of Spain's next general election in December 2023. He also hopes the Catalan "problem" might fade away as soon as Spaniards go on summer vacation.
But his critics know the pardons are hurting Sánchez. Since the government signaled its intention to grant the pardons, the ruling PSOE party — half of whose voters oppose them — has been slipping in the polls and losing ground to the PP, the main conservative opposition party. Both the PP and the far-right Vox party, which rose to prominence in the aftermath of the 2017 crisis because it advocates for a much tougher line on Catalonia, will surely gain more support if the current row over the pardons drags on.
Also, Spain's top court, which oversaw the months-long sedition trial, has unanimously rejected the pardons because the politicians have shown no remorse. Although that ruling is non-binding, the court's opinion will be cited in future legal challenges that could go all the way to the constitutional court, which will have the final say and could send the politicians back to prison.
What's more, the pardons are not enough for Catalan separatists. Pere Aragonès, the head of Catalonia's regional government, has welcomed the reprieves as a "first step" toward reconciliation. But he insists on an amnesty that would completely absolve the "political prisoners," as pro-independence Catalans refer to the jailed politicians, of all responsibility over actions that, in their opinion, were political in nature.
Meanwhile, more hardcore separatist leaders say they won't make any concessions until Madrid grants Catalans the right to decide their own future in a legal and binding plebiscite, similar to how the UK allowed Scots to vote on independence in 2014. One of them is the influential Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president and current MEP who fled Spain to avoid prosecution and now lives in Belgium.
Either way, it's a bold move for Sánchez, who faces an impossible choice. On the one hand, he's making an unpopular decision that could hurt him and the PSOE politically. On the other hand, his minority government cannot survive without parliamentary support from Catalan nationalist parties.
Looking ahead. Those who oppose the pardons fear they will only encourage pro-independence Catalan leaders to try again to secede in the near future. But Sánchez is playing the long game, and Catalan nationalists know they have a lot to lose with him out of office.What We’re Watching: Military pushback against Bolsonaro, new HK “election” rules, Catalan separatists bicker
Bolsonaro reshuffles, brass revolts: For the first time in Brazil's history, the heads of the army, air force, and navy all resigned at once on Tuesday. The move came in response to President Jair Bolsonaro's decision a day earlier to force the resignation of his defense minister, along with half a dozen other top officials, in a bid to reassert his leadership amid a chorus of criticism over his disastrous handling of the pandemic and soaring COVID deaths. Bolsonaro, a former army captain himself, is famously nostalgic for Brazil's dictatorship, and his armed forces chiefs reportedly took exception to the president's attempts to establish excessive personal influence over the military himself. Bolsonaro is now facing the biggest crisis of his presidency, with his approval rating plummeting and threats of impeachment circulating anew. Meanwhile, the pandemic — which he has repeatedly downplayed in terms ranging from merely smug to dangerously incompetent — is claiming more lives in Brazil daily than anywhere else in the world.
Only Chinese "patriots" can now run in Hong Kong elections: China on Tuesday officially made sweeping changes to Hong Kong's election rules that cut the number of directly-elected lawmakers by nearly half, and require candidates to show that they are "patriotic" if they wish to run. Carrie Lam, Beijing's handpicked leader for Hong Kong, insists that no one will be ruled out for holding any particular political views as long as they swear an oath to Hong Kong's laws (which have been rewritten by China), but opposition leaders aren't exactly convinced. Ahead of elections now scheduled for December, pro-democracy activists will have to decide if they are willing to protest again, which would now mean braving the possibility of terrorism charges under China's 2020 security law.
What We're Ignoring
Catalonia's (mis)government: Pro-independence parties in the Spanish autonomous region of Catalonia failed on Tuesday to reach an agreement to appoint a new government after the February 14 election, raising the specter of a fresh vote if they can't break the deadlock in two months' time. We're ignoring this because the same forces did something quite similar in 2016 and 2018, and both times ended up swearing in a new president at the last moment to avoid a repeat election. The only thing traditional left-wing nationalists, big-tent nationalists and far-left nationalists with a majority of seats in the Catalan parliament have in common nowadays is that they still want to part ways with Spain, even after their October 2017 attempt came up short. The question of independence continues to monopolize the political agenda in Catalonia, sapping attention from other issues such as COVID and the severe economic crisis that the region faces.What We're Watching: Separatists vs far right in Catalonia, US-Turkey row, France's controversial bill
Catalonia's post-election mess: Spain's pro-union Socialist Party (which leads the national coalition government in Spain) won the most votes in Sunday's regional election in Catalonia. But for the first time ever, pro-independence parties collectively came ahead in the popular vote, reaping a majority of seats (though voter turnout was dismal). Separatist forces will now band together to form yet another government in Catalonia that will prioritize breaking away from Spain, and may again try to secede unilaterally. Adding to Catalonia's political polarization, the far-right Vox party won almost 10 percent of the ballots cast with a fiery anti-independence, anti-immigration message that resonated with some unionist Catalans. The result puts Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in a bind: he needs pro-independence parties to get legislation passed in the national parliament, but giving them what they want — a pardon for the Catalan politicians convicted of secession for the events of 2017 and more autonomy for the region — would be immensely unpopular among voters in the rest of the country, and could encourage many of them to gravitate towards Vox. Your move, Don Pedro.
France's anti-separatism bill: The French parliament voted on Tuesday in favor of legislation aimed at curbing what President Emmanuel Macron has called "Islamic-separatism," and strengthening France's secular character. The bill's 51 articles include limits on homeschooling, fines — and even jail time — for doctors that conduct so-called "virginity tests" for Muslim women, as well as harsher penalties for online hate speech. Critics say the new law is discriminatory, unfairly targeting 5.7 million French Muslims, and does not reflect France's contemporary melting-pot culture. But proponents of the bill — among them many imams — argue that the new measures are necessary as France grapples with a resurgence of terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. Indeed, the gruesome beheading of a teacher outside Paris last fall, followed by a deadly rampage at a church several days later in Nice, sent shockwaves through a country that has lost more of its people to terror attacks in recent years than any other Western country. But there's also a political dimension at play: Macron faces a tough reelection battle in 2022, and currently trails his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the polls while his own approval rating remains sluggish. Will inching closer to the right help Macron's reelection bid?
Turkey hits US over Kurds: Weeks after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken angered Ankara by saying it wasn't acting like a NATO ally because of its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense system, US-Turkey relations have deteriorated further. This time, Turkey has blasted Washington for questioning the reported involvement of Kurdish militants in the execution of 13 Turkish hostages in northern Iraq, summoning the US ambassador for a scolding (Turkey, which considers Kurdish militants to be terrorists, also criticized Washington's ongoing support for the Kurds in Syria). As Turkish journalist İpek Yezdani told GZERO Media last fall, Turkey's pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no fan of US President Joe Biden, who a year ago irked Erdogan by calling for the opposition to beat him in the next election. By contrast, Trump appeased Erdogan by withdrawing US troops from northern Syria. We're watching to see how frosty US-Turkey ties will get in the near term — and if Erdogan and Biden will find any common ground.