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Ukraine fires US missiles into Russia. What's next?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine has launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. Will this change the course of the war?
I don't think so. First of all, the reason the Americans were dragging their feet for so long is because they didn't believe it would have any strategic impact in the war to give that permissioning to the Ukrainians and they were worried that it might lead to Russian escalation. That escalation is less likely given that Trump has been elected and he's going to be in power in just a couple of months, so the Russians basically have to deal with it, and they'll probably end up hitting more Ukrainian sites in the next couple of months. But I don't think it's really going to help the Ukrainians. I don't think it's going to hurt the Russians that much. What I do think is that the Russians are more likely to give better weapons, more capable weapons, to the Houthis, for example. So, if the Americans are going to arm proxies better, then the Russians will arm proxies better, and that could lead to bigger problems in the Gulf.
How likely will Trump be able to carry out mass deportations when he's in office?
I think he will be capable. He certainly was elected in part on that intention, on that promise. This is something that Biden really did not pay attention to until way too late and he lost a lot of votes in blue cities where people felt like there were just far too many illegal immigrants and the costs were great, and the security concerns were real. And so, the fact that he says he's going to use the military, that's potentially a Supreme Court question, but especially when you talk about people that have committed crimes in the United States, why they should still be in the US is a very serious question. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if 300,000, 500,000 deported in the first year. In other words, a hell of a lot higher than you've seen under Biden. There will be an inflation cost there, but it's one that I don't think Trump is going to take a big hit for.
Will there be political fallout from Hong Kong's decision to jail pro-democracy activists?
Not really, because China has changed the national security law. They've completely integrated Hong Kong into the Chinese political system and the pro-democracy activists don't have anyone that's willing to support them, not the UK, not the United States. I mean, they're human rights organizations, and you'll see members of Congress on the Democrat and Republican side that'll complain about it, but they won't do anything. So on balance, I don't think it matters, and that means, or I should say, it doesn't matter for China, which means very little blowback.
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Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pays tribute to the 309 victims of the earthquake that struck, in L'Aquila, Italy, on 5 April 2009.
Hard Numbers: Harris goes into Fox’s den, Italy’s international surrogacy ban, Nigeria’s fuel tanker explosion, Hong Kong tries to get the party started, Jimmy Carter casts his 21st presidential ballot
200 million: Kamala Harris went into conservative territory to appear on Fox News on Wednesday night. In a pre-taped, 30-minute interview with network host Bret Baier, the vice president was grilled on immigration and her history of supporting taxes used to fund gender-affirming care for federal prisoners and detained immigrants. The interview was contentious, with the two repeatedly talking over one another. Fox News, which reaches nearly 200 million people each month, was just the latest stop on Harris’ media blitz – and was likely an attempt to reach independents and moderate Republicans.
1.25: Surrogacy has been banned in Italy for 20 years, but Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’sconservative government has just gone a step further and criminalized seeking surrogacy abroad. Conservative lawmakers argued that they passed the law because they believe surrogacy is exploitative of women. Critics argued it would deprive gay or infertile couples of a way to have children and noted that the legislation targets a relatively small number of families in a country that already has a low birth rate.
100: A massive fuel tanker explosion in northern Nigeria killed 100 people and left 50 injured on Wednesday. The tanker exploded after veering to avoid colliding with a truck in the town of Maja. Fuel tanker explosions are common in Africa’s most populous nation, where roads can be poorly maintained. Complicating matters, residents often rush toward the tanker to siphon off fuel following accidents amid the country’s worst economic crisis in a generation.
10: Hong Kong has slashed its booze tax, one of the highest in the world, as the Chinese territory seeks to boost nightlife and revive its struggling economy. Until now, spirits with an alcoholic content of more than 30%, including brandy, whisky, and gin, had been subject to a 100% duty in Hong Kong. But the financial hub has been hit hard by China’s slowing economy and the fall in tourist numbers, leading the Beijing-backed government to slash the duty rate to 10%.
21: Former US President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month, voted by mail on the first day of Georgia’s early voting on Tuesday. Although he did not reveal who he voted for, he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in August that, even more than making it to his 100th birthday, he was “only trying to make it to vote for Kamala Harris.” At 19, Carter likely cast his first vote in the 1944 presidential election, as a part of the first cohort of voters made eligible to vote by Georgia lowering its voting age to 18, making this his 21st presidential election.
People walk against strong wind in Kagoshima on Aug. 29, 2024, as Typhoon Shanshan made landfall on Japan's southwestern main island of Kyushu.
Hard Numbers: Typhoon pummels Japan, Germany deports Afghans, Press freedoms attacked in Hong Kong, Israel and Hamas pause for vaccinations, Hundreds lost eyesight in Bangladesh violence
5.2 million: At least three people have been killed by Typhoon Shanshan in Japan, and on Thursday, evacuation notices were issued for over 5.2 million people as the storm pummeled the southwest part of the island, bringing torrential rain and 112 mph wind gusts. More than 200,000 households lost power, and authorities have warned it could be one of the strongest storms ever to hit the area.
28: For the first time since August 2021, Germany has dispatched a deportation flight to Afghanistan. Authorities said the 28 deportees were all Afghan nationals and convicted offenders “who had no right to stay in Germany.” The German government had stopped sending Afghans back to their native country after the Taliban regained power owing to human rights concerns. The flight departed early Friday and was the culmination of two months of secret negotiations aided by mediator Qatar.
2: Two former editors of the pro-democracy publication Stand News — Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam — were convicted of sedition in Hong Kong on Thursday, in yet another sign of the deterioration of freedoms in the city as Beijing continues to tighten its grip in a territory that was once mostly autonomous. They face up to two years in prison and a fine of roughly $640. This was the first trial involving media in Hong Kong since the handover of the city from Britain to China in 1997.
640,000: It’s far from a cease-fire deal, but Israel and Hamas have agreed to zoned three-day pauses in fighting so polio vaccines can be administered to approximately 640,000 children, a World Health Organization official said Thursday. This process will begin on Sunday in central Gaza, followed by the southern part of the enclave and then the north. The agreement leaves room for the pauses to be extended to a fourth day if necessary. This announcement comes less than a week after the WHO confirmed a baby in Gaza had been paralyzed by polio.
1,000: Over 1,000 people were killed by violence in Bangladesh that broke out last month amid anti-government protests, the country’s interim health ministry chief said Thursday, adding that more than 400 students lost their eyesight. The health ministry also noted that many people had their legs amputated. The protests ultimately saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina flee the country in early August. Bangladesh now has an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.A man stands in front of a convoy of tanks in the Avenue of Eternal Peace in Beijing, June 5, 1989.
Hong Kong police prep repression ahead of Tiananmen anniversary
Security forces in Hong Kongarrested six people on Tuesday on charges of violating the new Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, known as Article 23, a law designed to shield China’s central government from criticism. Among them wasChow Hang-tung, a former lead organizer of a now-defunct political activist group, who faces up to seven years in prison for inciting “hatred and distrust of the central government, the Hong Kong government and the judiciary.” These were the city’s first arrests under the new law.
The other five detainees are charged with helping Chow post treasonous content on social media in advance of what authorities refer to only as a “sensitive date.” June 4 will mark the 35th anniversary of the massacre of students and other pro-democracy protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. Commemorations of the crackdown have beenbanned in Hong Kong since 2020.
In past years, Chow, a human rights lawyer, has helped organize candlelight vigils to honor the demonstrators who died in the square. Tuesday’s arrest occurred inside a maximum-security prison for women, where Chow was already serving a sentence for “inciting subversion” in connection with her role in a 2021 ceremony to mark the Tiananmen anniversary. The trials of all six activists will be held behind closed doors.
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, government officials and lawmakers pose for a group photo, after the Safeguarding National Security Bill, also referred to as Basic Law Article 23, was passed at the Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2024.
Hong Kong passes harsh national security law
Letter of the law. It allows authorities to detain people without charge for up to 16 days, conduct closed-door trials, and ban companies found to be “working for foreign forces.” But the devil is in the (lack of) details: The bill closely imitates Beijing’s state secrets law, with a broad definition of what might constitute theft or espionage.
It also introduces the new offense of “external interference.” Anyone found collaborating with loosely defined “external forces” could face charges.
What does it mean for Hong Kong? Chief Executive John Lee said the law – set to go into effect on Saturday – was necessary to halt unrest and root out “espionage activities.” He said passing it quickly will now allow his government to focus on economic growth, a key concern.
Hong Kong has long been known for an open business climate, but the laissez-faire vibes are fading after the harsh crackdowns on protests that broke out over an extradition law in 2019. Many of the city’s best and brightest have gone abroad, and multinationals worry about the risks of operating under the new rules. Lee bets that a booming economy might put minds at ease.
Hong Kong's new security law ends remaining political independence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the new security law affect all aspects of life in Hong Kong?
Takes away small remaining vestiges of political independence, none of which people expected were going to be maintained for long. The Chinese government really fast tracked this, which did, you know, antagonize a lot of people on the island. But at the same time, I mean, they're already basically shut down, you know, free Democratic media and made it impossible to engage in demonstrations that were seen as difficult or upsetting to the mainland. I mean, Hong Kong is no longer a bridge into mainland China. It is now a component of a greater Chinese economy. And to the extent that economy starts turning around and doing better, Hong Kong will do well. It's not right now, so it's not performing quite as effectively. And, you know, a lot of the expats have already gotten out of Dodge.
Is Haiti becoming a failed state?
Does look that way. I mean, we certainly don't yet have any significant policing on the ground, nor do we yet have any international peacekeepers. And even if we have them, the historical experience with them has been checkered at best. There's no effective leadership in the country. So interesting, you know, they share an island with a border right down the middle with the Dominican Republic, and the DR is one of the most effective economies in Latin America today. Just goes to show you that governance really, really matters. So painful to see this happening and so close to the United States. American willingness to put a little bit of money in, sure, but to do anything significant to try to create stability. Not at all.
Will Trump's difficulty paying his legal judgments hurt his campaign?
You would think it would, because, you know, historically, the United States has the most expensive and long electoral campaign in the world. And if you don't have money, you're not supposed to run it very effectively. But of course, Trump also is unique in his ability to get just dominate the media cycle for free. He makes headlines and he lives in everybody's head. And in that regard, it's not as important for him to have a huge amount of cash. He's also former president. And, you know, having a former president, a sitting president running against each other, it's not like he's a non incumbent that doesn't have brand recognition. That's also important for him. But at the margins, yeah, I don't think it's as important as, you know, how people feel about abortion or immigration or the economy or democracy. But is it on the top ten? Yeah, probably the top ten, may almost crack top five.
A woman outside the damaged house of her son, who was killed the day before by shelling in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Deadly shelling, drug kingpin's jail security, Lai sighting, Sweden soccer semi, twin takeover
7: Shelling in the southern Ukrainian province of Kherson Ukraine on Sunday killed seven people, including a 23-day-old baby girl. The attack followed denials by Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar that Ukrainian forces had engaged in Russian-occupied territory in the region.
4,000: The Ecuadorian government dispatched 4,000 military and police personnel to the Zonal 8 Detention Center in Guayas province, to “establish control over weapons, ammunition and explosives within the prison.” The jail is home to José Adolfo Macías Villamar, the drug trafficker who murdered presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio claimed had threatened him prior to his assassination. President Guillermo Lasso this weekend said Macías was relocated to La Roca maximum security prison in the same penitentiary complex.
23: Photos have surfaced of former Hong Kong newspaper publisher Jimmy Lai, the first taken since 2021. They show Lai accompanied by two guards at the maximum security Stanley Prison in Hong Kong, where the pro-democracy activist is kept in solitary confinement for 23 hours each day. Lai was sentenced to more than five years in prison for fraud in 2022, but he is awaiting trial on charges of endangering national security, which could lead to a life sentence.
4: Sweden’s women’s soccer team has advanced to the World Cup semi-final — its fourth big semi in four years. They reached the semi-finals of the 2019 World Cup, the 2020 Olympics, and Euro 2022, but they have yet to take home the crown. To make it to the finals this time, Sweden's women must beat Spain on Tuesday.
17: Must be something in the water. Primary schools in the Scottish town of Inverclyde, population 76,700, are preparing to welcome 17 sets of twins this fall. “Twinverclyde,” as the town has become known, has welcomed 147 sets of twins to its primary schools since 2013, an average of 13 sets a year.
A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.