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Women attend the funeral of the victims who were killed in electronic pagers explosion in Beirut southern suburb.
Lebanon hit by deadly explosions (again)
Lebanon was rocked by more deadly blasts on Wednesday, with walkie-talkies and solar equipment exploding in Beirut and other parts of the country. At least 14 were killed, and hundreds more injured.
This came a day after pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon and Syria — killing at least a dozen, including two children, while injuring thousands. Some of Wednesday’s blasts reportedly occurred at funerals for people killed by the exploding pagers the day prior.
Israel, which has been trading cross-border fire with Hezbollah amid the war in Gaza, has been blamed for both waves of blasts. The Jewish state has repeatedly threatened to take more forceful actions against continued attacks from Hezbollah. And on Monday, Israel said it had a new war goal: the safe return of residents who’ve been displaced from their homes near the Israel-Lebanon border due to tit-for-tat fighting with the Iran-backed militant group.
Wednesday’s fatal explosions came as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared that a “new phase” of the war had begun. “The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north,” Gallant said, alluding to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
UN human rights chief Volker Türk on Wednesday called for an independent and thorough investigation into the explosions, noting that they violated international human rights law. “The fear and terror unleashed is profound,” Türk said, urging world leaders to step up in defense of the “rights of all people to live in peace and security.”
We’ll be watching to see what Israel and Hezbollah’s next moves are as tensions continue to rise.
Divergent cyberattack responses: Estonia & India
During a recent GZERO livestream event presented by Visa, Priya Vora, CEO of Digital Impact Alliance, shed light on a critical aspect of digitization that often goes beyond the realm of cybersecurity: trust-building between governments and citizens. Priya recounted an intriguing comparison between Estonia and India in 2018, both of which experienced reported attacks on major government databases—the X-Road system in Estonia and the Aadhaar identity system in India.
The stark difference in the responses to these incidents was striking. While Estonia promptly informed its citizens about the situation, reassuring them that the issue was being addressed, India's reaction took a more contentious turn, with the government even threatening to arrest the reporter who had covered the supposed breach. Vora says this divergence in responses highlights the multifaceted nature of trust-building. It extends beyond cybersecurity measures and necessitates a comprehensive approach that includes understanding citizens' needs, effective communication, involving them in policymaking, providing assurances, and taking tangible actions.
As the world becomes more reliant on digital infrastructure, trust between governments and citizens is paramount. Building and maintaining this trust is not just a matter of technical cybersecurity measures but a fundamental aspect of fostering a resilient and inclusive digital future. Trust, as she emphasizes, is a multifaceted endeavor that requires proactive engagement and communication between all stakeholders.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream here:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
Hackers, innovation, malice & cybercrime
In the 1950s, "phreakers" whistled their ways into free long-distance calls. Steve Wozniak then improved on the scam, making enough cash to get Apple started along with Steve Jobs.
Many of today's hackers are also bored kids trying to beat the system and make a quick buck in the process. But they can also do more sinister things, Ian Bremmer tells GZERO World.
The annual global cost of cybercrime has almost tripled since 2005. If it were an economy, cybercrime would be the world's third-largest after the US and China.
We saw the impact with the 2021 ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline, enabled by a single compromised password. Indeed, hackers only need a tiny opening to bring down a company or a country. And they know that in Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, and Tehran.
So, what can we do about it?
Watch the GZERO World episode: Hackers, Russia, China: cyber battles & how we win
Ranking cyber threats: CISA chief Jen Easterly
Just a few years ago, we were worried about non-state actors like ISIS carrying out major cyberattacks. Is there still a threat?
"Low probability, but high impact," US cybersecurity chief Jen Easterly tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Also, attacks by non-state actors are harder to verify.
The bigger problem, she adds, is the dozen or so states that are using cyber to do sort of lawful things like collecting intelligence, but then go about using such tactics for nefarious purposes.
And we don't have many rules in place to deal with that.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Hackers, Russia, China: cyber battles & how we win
China & Russia are "formidable" cyber adversaries: CISA's Jen Easterly
The next 10 years are critical for America to defend itself from China and Russia in cyberspace, says US cybersecurity chief Jen Easterly.
We'll know by then if we've won or lost the battle for tech innovation against Beijing and Moscow when it comes to things like smart cities, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And despite the Russians being a more urgent threat, the long-term race with China to dominate global tech is arguably even more important.
"Russia is the hurricane, but China is climate change."
Easterly also shares her take on why we haven't seen major cyberattacks from the Kremlin after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Hackers, Russia, China: cyber battles & how we win
How private businesses help fight cybercrime
The federal government wants to help US businesses better defend themselves against cyberattacks — but little can be done if corporations don't report them.
That's why the Biden administration is championing a new law that forces them to do so, says Jen Easterly, head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
The Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act requires whoever operates critical infrastructure to report attacks coming from state and non-state actors.
And that data will "drive down risk in a much more systematic way," Easterly tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Hackers, Russia, China: cyber battles & how we win
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Hackers, Russia, China: cyber battles & how we win
The next decade will be a turning point in the global cyber arms race. And the stakes are very high.
If measured as a country's GDP, cyber crime would now be the world's third-largest economy after the US and China. And it only takes a single password — as Americans learned after the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack — for cyber crime to cripple a company or humiliate a nation.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, tasked with defending the country from all cyber threats — foreign and domestic.
America, she says, has finally gotten serious about protecting itself from cyberattacks. But the federal government still needs cooperation from the private sector, which operates 80% of the critical infrastructure that serves our daily basic needs.
Easterly also digs into how Russia is the urgent cyber threat, though China could do more damage in the long term -- and whether the US is prepared to defend itself from both adversaries.
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Ukrainian flag displayed on a laptop and binary code code on a screen.
Why hasn’t Ukraine suffered a debilitating Russian cyberattack?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February fueled expectations it would launch a devastating campaign of cyberattacks against the neighboring country. Since 2014, state-run Russian cyber units, state-affiliated hackers, and independent cyber-criminal groups have frequently trained their sights on targets in Ukraine. They have, among other things, forced government websites offline, caused the largest-ever cyber-induced blackout of a nation’s power grid, and deployed the most destructive and costly malware to date. So, why hasn’t there been another such attack since the war began? We talked to Eurasia Group geotech analyst Sienna Tompkins to get some answers.
We’ve come to see cyberattacks as a big part of Russia’s playbook. Has that changed?
Not really. While a large-scale attack with significant repercussions or international contagion has not yet materialized, there has been a steady drumbeat of cyber activity by Russian military and intelligence units against Ukrainian targets. In a recent report, Microsoft said there have been at least 2-3 cyber operations since the eve of the invasion. Nuisance-level attacks have overloaded key government and institutional websites with traffic, several wiper malwares have been deployed, and the hack of satellite provider, Viasat, caused widespread communications outages on the first day of the invasion.
Why nothing bigger?
One reason might be that military attacks are generally more effective when it comes to disabling critical infrastructure. There has also been speculation that Russian cyber units were caught off-guard by the invasion, without sufficient notice to plan and execute large, sophisticated attacks. Moreover, Russian leaders may be wary of US retaliation or of triggering NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause if a NATO member is affected by the fallout. Lastly, expectations of a quick and decisive victory may also have influenced the calculus to keep critical infrastructure operational for the use of a puppet regime installed by Moscow.
That said, there is also an element of uncertainty and misdirection that occurs in times of war. Cyber operations that have yet to be activated or detected could ultimately meet the threshold of a major attack. Targets may not know they have been compromised or that the root cause of a cyber operation is cyber-induced. Moreover, in a context of widespread physical destruction, it can be hard to tell if there have been contributing cyber actions as well.
What did we learn from the recent foiled attack against Ukraine’s electric grid?
It lends weight to the theory that Moscow may have wanted to keep critical infrastructure intact in expectation of a quick victory in the war. Sandworm, a group thought to be part of the hacking operations of the GRU, Russian military intelligence, infected the Ukrainian energy company’s network in February. That was prior to the invasion, yet Sandworm only attempted to cut power months later in April.
The episode also highlights Ukraine’s increased cyber resiliency. The foiled cyberattack would have affected 2 million people, making it the largest-ever cyber-induced power outage, but was discovered prior to activation. After years of being targeted by Russia, Ukraine has ramped up investment in its defenses and in cultivating cyber talent.
Has Western assistance been a factor in bolstering Ukraine’s defenses?
Yes. The US, EU, and NATO have all contributed: US Cyber Command sent a surge team to Ukraine ahead of the invasion to hunt for compromised networks; NATO admitted Ukraine to its Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence and included Ukrainian experts in its recent digital war simulation “Locked Shields”; and the EU mobilized its newly formed Cyber Rapid Response Team to work with its Ukrainian counterparts.
Private companies have also been playing an outsized role. Major service providers, as the main conduits for many attacks, are tracking known cyber actors and taking remedial action. Microsoft recently obtained a court order to take over seven internet domains used by Strontium, another GRU cyber unit, and redirect them to blunt their impact.
Are you worried about other countries helping Russia wage cyberwarfare?
Russia is a highly sophisticated cyber actor and perfectly capable of waging cyber warfare on its own. Additional actors could add to the chaos and disruption in Ukraine in a way that is useful to Russia, but to be strategically or tactically impactful and avoid undue escalation with the US and NATO, there would need to be a level of formal cooperation. There has been some speculation that China could get involved, but it is unlikely to take such an aggressive step and there is no evidence that it has done so yet.
What about cyberattacks by Ukraine?
Ukraine has primarily been focused on what has been called “persistent defense” — fending off Russian cyber intrusions and attempted attacks. But in a new twist, Ukrainian officials have also mobilized a civilian “IT army.” The volunteer corps is focused on taking down or defacing Russian government websites, hack-and-leak operations revealing confidential datasets, and attempting to undermine propaganda on Russian TV networks. Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development and Communications has reported unprecedented volumes of attacks against government websites. Nevertheless, the attacks remain nuisance-level and serve primarily as information warfare.
What should we expect in the cyber dimension of the Ukraine war going forward?
The story is far from over. The risks of major Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine, or countries backing it, remain elevated. The Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US recently warned of preparations to conduct significant cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in countries that have sanctioned Russia or otherwise shown their support for Ukraine. Western governments are exhorting companies to upgrade their cyber resilience. A significant attack is likely a matter of not if but when.
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