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The country's deadliest aviation disaster since 1997 comes at a politically volatile time.
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Remembering Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy: Ian Bremmer looks back
Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States, has died at the age of 100. A one-term president whose administration was marred by inflation, a gas crisis, and the Iranian hostage standoff, Carter went on to have one of the most illustrious post-presidencies in American history. Here's a remembrance from Ian Bremmer on President Carter’s foreign policy legacy.
A Georgian reflects on the life of Jimmy Carter
We Georgians have always had mixed feelings about the 39th president, who died today, Dec. 29, 2024, at age 100.
Georgia’s new president sworn in amid protests
On Sunday, Georgia inaugurated President Mikheil Kavelashvili amid growing demonstrations and accusations of election fraud perpetrated by Moscow. Kavelashvili, a former soccer player, was selected by a 300-member electoral college controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which now dominates every major government institution.
Russia ends missile deployment ban
Russia no longer considers itself bound by its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles, clearing the way for Moscow to deploy the weapons across Europe and Asia.
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North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia as casualties rise, says Seoul
South Korean military officials said Monday that they had detected North Korean preparations to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia, and elaborated that at least 100 of Pyongyang’s soldiers had been killed and 1,000 more wounded so far, while Ukrainians claim 200 have died and nearly 3,000 had been wounded. If Seoul’s estimates are accurate, that would mean approximately one out of every ten troops dispatched since late October has already taken a wound or died.
The high casualty figures may stem from lack of battlefield experience and modern equipment, as North Korean units embedded with Russian peers attempt to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. It isn’t dampening Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for cooperating with Russia, however, with the South Korean military claiming he has developed new suicide drones to send to the battlefront. US intelligence agencies said Monday that they believe North Korea offered Russia its troops, rather than the request originating in Moscow, in expectation of help with defense technology and political backing on the world stage.
Watch out for a nasty New Year’s gift, too. Seoul says Pyongyang may attempt to test a hypersonic missile in late December or early January. Just ahead of a presidential transition in the US, and with chaos in South Korean politics caused by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law on Dec. 3, don’t hold your breath for a strong response.Hard Numbers: US friendly fire downs F/A-18, Russia guns down prisoners, US court rules on Pegasus spyware case, China goes after Canadian activists
2: Two US Navy pilots were forced to eject from their F/A-18 fighter over the Red Sea on Sunday during a “friendly fire” incident when a US warship targeted their plane with a missile. Both pilots survived the ejection but one sustained minor injuries, and it is not immediately clear why the ship, which was on station to shoot down Houthi missiles launched from Yemen, fired upon the aircraft.
127: Russian forces have summarily executed at least 127 Ukrainian troops this year according to prosecutors investigating these war crimes. The figures is an immense spike — officials counted just 20 summary executions of prisoners of war in 2022 and 2023 combined — suggesting an alarming shift in Russian doctrine.
1,400: A US court on Friday ruled that Israeli cyber-intelligence firm NSO Group was liable for hacking the devices of 1,400 WhatsApp users using the secretive software known as Pegasus, in violation of US cybersecurity laws. Pegasus has been implicated in hacks on dissidents by authoritarian governments around the world, and has been on a US blacklist since 2021.
20: Beijing announced Sunday it was taking punitive action against twenty people and two Canadian institutions advocating on behalf of the human rights of Tibetan and Uyghur minorities in China. The measures include asset freezes, bans on entry to China, and seizure of any real estate in the PRC. They come just weeks after Canada also announced sanctions on Chinese officials accused of human rights abuses.Foreign policy in a fractured world: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on global threats and Joe Biden's legacy
Listen: Outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan joins Ian Bremmer in front of a live audience at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a rare and wide-ranging GZERO World interview about the biggest geopolitical threats facing the United States, Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, and how much will (or won’t) change when the Trump administration takes office in 2025. The world has changed dramatically since Biden entered the White House in 2021, and Sullivan has been the driving force behind some of the administration’s most consequential–and controversial–decisions over the past four years. The outgoing National Security Advisor reflects on his time in office, from managing strategic competition with China to supporting Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion to navigating the US-Israel relationship. He warns that bad actors see presidential transitions as moments of opportunity, so it’s imperative that we send a “clear and common message” to both friends and adversaries during what he calls “a huge, plastic moment of turbulence and transition” in global politics.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Putin isn't winning in Ukraine, says US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
Filmed live before an audience at New York City’s iconic 92nd Street Y, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sat down for an in-depth conversation with Ian Bremmer as part of GZERO World, Bremmer's PBS global affairs TV series. Marking one of his final public interviews as President Biden's top foreign policy advisor, Sullivan offered a candid assessment of global geopolitics, with a sharp focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its broader implications.
In a striking moment, Sullivan dismantled the perception of Russian success in Ukraine: “They set out on a strategic objective of taking the capital Kyiv, wiping Ukraine as we know it off the map... and they have failed in that. And they will fail in that,” he declared. Sullivan emphasized that while the war imposes profound costs on Ukraine, the resilience of its people and the steadfast support of allies have kept the nation standing.
The revealing conversation also touched on the shifting dynamics within NATO, the economic strain on authoritarian regimes, and the critical path toward a just peace for Ukraine. Reflecting on the broader picture, Sullivan noted, “We tend, as democracies, to think, ‘Oh, we’re not doing so great.’ But let’s not forget: Kyiv stands. Ukraine stands. Ukraine will stand at the end of this.”
Watch the full interview with Jake Sullivan on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television beginning this Friday, December 20. Check local listings.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Putin threatens NATO and Ukraine (yet again)
The Ukrainian military brazenly assassinated General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of Russia's nuclear and chemical weapons forces, on the streets of Moscow on Tuesday by detonating an explosive device. The killing marks the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the invasion. Kyiv has accused Kirillov of overseeing the “massive use of banned chemical weapons” in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has vowed “inevitable retaliation” against the “military and political leadership of Ukraine.”
The assassination came the day after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that he might lift self-imposed restrictions on Russia’s development of short- and medium-range missiles, while warning that the West was pushing on “a red line we can’t step back from.” In a speech to the Defense Ministry, he also signaled that Russia would keep its non-strategic nuclear forces on constant combat alert and increase production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, like the one it fired at Ukraine for the first time last month. Hypersonic missiles travel at five to 25 times the speed of sound, making them difficult to defend against – though some scientistsdoubt their value as offensive weapons. Only the US, China, and India have also flown missiles at hypersonic speed.
There’s nothing new about apocalyptic-sounding threats from the Kremlin, and these warnings are best understood as Putin’s attempt to project strength that might dissuade the Joe Biden administration from providing Ukraine with material help during his final month as president. It’s also meant to frighten European governments away from investing more heavily in Ukraine’s defense.
Finally, Putin wants to maximize Ukrainian, American, and European perceptions of the costs and risks of intensified war with Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the pressure he might apply ahead of his promised negotiations to end the war.
Zelensky preps for hard bargaining
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. That would require Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to open negotiations – and to find enough common ground to agree at least to a ceasefire. Putin and Zelensky are now trying to strengthen their respective bargaining positions before talks can begin.
On Monday, Zelenskysaid via social media that he’s open to the possibility of Western governments posting troops on Ukrainian territory to guarantee his country’s territorial integrity, an idea firstsuggested publicly by France’s President Emmanuel Macron in February. “But before that, we must have a clear understanding of when Ukraine will be in the European Union and when Ukraine will be in NATO,” Zelensky wrote.
The EU and NATO remain unlikely to commit to precise membership timetables until it becomes clear what Ukraine’s future borders will be, and many Western leaders remain opposed to deploying troops into a warzone that could involve them directly in a war with Russia. For now, Zelensky continues to work with the outgoing Joe Biden administration to bolster his weapons stockpiles and to win more freedom to use Western weapons against his targets inside Russia.
There’s another political transition that Zelensky is watching carefully: Germany will hold national elections in February, and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz will likely lose his job to Friedrich Merz, the head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union. Merz is more publicly hawkish on helping Ukraine repel Russian invaders. That prospect gives Zelensky some hope that European backing for Ukraine will remain even if Trump dials back US support.Hard Numbers: VW goes on strike, Guinean soccer violence turns deadly, Scholz pledges Ukraine aid, US breaks travel record
$19 billion: Tens of thousands of German Volkswagen workers launched strikes at multiple car plants on Monday, protesting €18 billion ($19 billion) in company budget cuts that resulted in three plant closures and pension cuts. Volkswagen is grappling with a 64% drop in third-quarter profits and declining market demand in China.
56: Fifty-six people, including many children, died in southeast Guinea after a disagreement over a refereeing decision turned violent at a soccer match held to honor military leader Mamady Doumbouya. Opposition group National Alliance for Change and Democracy blamed the ruling junta for failing to keep people safe while organizing tournaments to bolster political support for their leader in advance of a promised presidential election, which they say violates election law.
680 million: German Chancellor Olaf Scholzpledged $680 million in aid to Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv on Monday, his first trip to the city in over two years. New German military equipment is scheduled to be delivered this month amid questions about the long-term viability of Western support for Ukraine with the incoming administration in Washington.
3 million: US airport security cleared a record 3 million travelers on Sunday after the Thanksgiving holiday that traditionally sees families reuniting from far and wide. So, pretty smooth at security, but plenty of travelers faced frustration from there: Airlines canceled 120 flights and delayed over 6,800.At the Paris Peace Forum, war and conflicts were topics du jour
Just days after Donald Trump's decisive victory in the US presidential election, leaders from around the world gathered in Paris for the annual Peace Forum. With so much uncertainty about the future of America's global commitments, from climate financing to funding for Ukraine, the vibe is anything but peaceful. Now in its seventh year, the Paris Peace Forum brings together a global network of government, nonprofit, and private-sector leaders to tackle the biggest issues of our time.
But on that stage, it's been looking more like curtains for true cooperation. The theme this year is "Wanted: A Functioning Global Order." What makes the current world order so dysfunctional? And a new era of regional wars is making those problems worse. This year's Global Peace Index reported the highest levels of armed conflict since the end of World War II, at a time when geopolitical competition threatens diplomatic efforts for peace. There was no shortage of critical issues for leaders to address here in Paris, but top of mind for Europe was the ongoing war in Ukraine and what Donald Trump's victory in the US election might mean for American support next year.
Watch the full GZERO World episode: Trump foreign policy in a MAGA, MAGA world
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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