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Can Syria rebuild to welcome returning refugees?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.
Demonstrators stand next to a fire during a protest against the new government's decision to suspend the European Union accession talks and refuse budgetary grants until 2028, in Tbilisi, Georgia December 2, 2024.
Tbilisi in turmoil: Protests erupt over suspended EU talks
Thousands of protesters clashed with police in the Georgian capital for a third consecutive night on Saturday after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s government suspended negotiations to join the European Union. Late Friday, Demonstrators broke through metal gates outside Georgia’s parliament buildings, using garbage bins and benches as makeshift barricades as riot police deployed tear gas and water cannons. Protesters also took to the streetsin other regions and cities across the country including Batumi, Kutaisi, and Zugdidi.
Kobakhidze’s EU exit comes after Western leaders condemned Georgia’s October election, which returned the ruling Georgian Dream party to power, as fraudulent. Party founder, pro-Russian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, stood accused of bribing voters, while Kobakhidze has become increasingly aligned with Moscow.
In response, President Salome Zourabichvili,who’s pro-Western, described the current government as “illegitimate” and vowed to retain her role past on Dec. 14, the date the parliament has set for picking her replacement,likely to be far-right politician and former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Hundreds of civil servants have also signed letters of protest; Georgia’s ambassadors to Bulgaria, Netherlands, and Italy resigned; and the US State Department has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. Kobakhidze accuses opponents of plotting a revolution similar to the 2013-2014 Maidan Uprising in Ukraine, which toppled a pro-Russian president – a precedent he does not want to see repeated.
Leaders of Poland, Nordic & Baltic countries affirm strong support for Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
What was the purpose of the big leaders meeting in Sweden today?
Well, it was not entirely unique, but highly important meetings of the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries, and Poland. It's eight countries in total that came together on the leaders level in order to, first, of course, to say that we do support Ukraine and we are ready to do more, to say that we are ready to do more for defense. And these are countries, you should know, that they're all well above the 2% target of defense spending. Poland is above 4%, even. These are also the countries in the world that are the highest in terms of their proportion of GDP in terms of supporting Ukraine.
So the fact that they came together today to say this, "We are ready to do more to support Ukraine, we are ready to do more to reinforce our defense and security," was, of course, a strong signal of reassurance to Ukraine, a signal of some sort of political deterrence to Russia, but of course was also a signal of sorts to the United States and the incoming Trump administration that, "Here we are. We ready to do our part. We've already done it and we're ready to do more."
What is the nature of the political transition ongoing in the European Union?
Well, it's going amazingly well, against expectations, I have to say. All of the proposed members of the European Commission have been approved by the European Parliament. The entire commission has now been approved in a vote. So the commission comes into force, the sort of second Ursula von der Leyen Commission on the 1st of December. That's also the date when the new president of the European Council, António Costa, takes over. So by December 1st, the entire European Union transition is there, and the European Union is institutionally ready for the next five years. It will be demanding, yes.
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Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
Is Europe prepared for a Trump presidency?
And that's of course the big issue around every capital of Europe. There are two major issues and concerns.
One of them, obviously, the Russian war against Ukraine. What will be the US policy? Trump has promised to make peace within 24 hours. That's not going to happen. Putin is determined to continue this particular war. What would be the consequences then? Is Trump going to throw Ukraine under the bus, abandon support and thus abandon de facto concerns for the security of Europe? How would Europe react to that big issue?
Second big issue, tariffs. Trump has said that tariffs is the word that he loves most of all words. And he said that he's going to impose 10, 20% tariffs on all imports and far more on imports, of course, from China. That's going to have hugely negative effects for the global economy, also for the European economy, US economy and everyone else. What's going to be the European reaction to that? Counter tariffs or trying to line up with other global trade actors to preserve as much as we can, open up a big global trading system? Huge issues. No answer until by January 20th we know what the Trump administration is going to do. One conclusion, fairly obvious; we better buckle up.
The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order
The 7th annual Paris Peace Forum is getting underway, convening diplomats, academics, and private sector leaders tasked with finding solutions to mounting global crises before conflicts erupt. Spoiler alert: That mission has not been accomplished.
The Forum’s theme is “Wanted: A Functioning Global Order,” and will focus on topics such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, funding for climate action, and countering disinformation and digital attacks to restore trust in cyberspace.
These conversations are particularly fraught following key political developments last week—Donald Trump’s clear victory in the US presidential election, and the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government following months of economic crisis. Both of those signal more unpredictable times to come for European politics.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis is on the ground at the Paris Peace Forum for our Global Stage series, and interviewed Justin Vaisse, the organization’s founder and Director General. Top of mind for Vaisse, of course, was Trump’s election and what it means for Europe.
“I don’t think Trump will simply throw Ukraine under the bus,” Vaisse said. “The conclusion is still, however, that Europe should be ready to support Ukraine by itself. Whether it can is another question, but it should be ready.”
Check out Tony’s full interview with Justin Vaisse here, and look for more coverage of the Paris Peace Forum from GZERO this week.
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Europe's reaction to US election win: Gloom and despair
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
This is Carl Bildt in Stockholm. I’m going to do one question this morning.
What’s the mood on this side of the Atlantic after the US election?
Well, I think it can be summed up fairly shortly: gloom and despair in Brussels and Kyiv, jubilation in expectations in Budapest, and a determination to press on in Moscow and Tel Aviv. That’s roughly, it.
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- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
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- How Trump forced Europe's hand on Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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