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A demonstrator wears elaborate face paint during a march for Mahsa (Zhina) Amini and those protesting her death in Iran.
Is the West doing enough to help Iranians?
The actions of Iranian protesters over the past two months – particularly women – have been awe-inspiring. Despite the prospect of incarceration, and worse, they’ve refused to kowtow to the bushy-eyebrowed mullahs calling the shots in the Islamic Republic. Fear of execution looms large, but Iranian women continue to abandon their headscarves and chant in the streets for regime change.
Things are only getting more dangerous after Iran’s parliament recently voted in favor of the death penalty for protesters. The first such sentences were handed down in recent days. Indeed, the stakes could not be higher, and yet hopeful Iranians continue to risk their lives.
As the government crackdown intensifies – there have been 300 deaths and 15,000 arrests to date – is the West doing enough to support the protesters in their bid for freedom?
Defying the despots. Iranians took to the streets in September in the aftermath of the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was arrested and reportedly beaten by Iran’s “morality police” for improperly donning her hijab.
Many young Iranians have died in custody over the past decade, but Amini’s story has galvanized a generation of millennial and Gen-Z women who have no recollection of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought down a corrupt Shah and have zero affinity for the mullahs who rule their lives.
As the human rights situation in Iran deteriorates, what’s the West doing about it?
Suit-clad politicians in Brussels and Washington have imparted all the right platitudes expressing support for Iran’s women-led movement.
More substantially, the US and EU, the UK, and Canada have expanded on Western sanctions in recent weeks – in place for the better part of a decade – aimed at stopping Iran from further developing its nuclear program. The Western alliance has sanctioned a host of officials from the Islamic Republican Guard Corps, a key unit of Iran's armed forces, as well as high-ranking government officials and regime loyalists.
These new measures come on top of long-term sanctions that have sought to cut Tehran off from the global financial system in hopes of strangling Iran’s most lucrative export – oil – and bringing the regime to its knees.
Still, while these established measures remain in place, the Biden administration has so far been unwilling to up the ante by implementing a cohesive strategy for further inflicting pain on the Iranian energy sector. Consider that in the fiscal year leading up to March 2023, Iran is expected to export 1.4 billion barrels per day, compared to around 500,000 bpd or less when former President Donald Trump was in the White House and enforced a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.
This suggests, analysts say, that the West, long trying to keep the dialogue open with Tehran in hopes of reviving the now-defunct nuclear deal, has overseen a lax enforcement system.
Many observers point to the latest developments in Ukraine as a case in point. Despite Western sanctions intended to stop Iran from developing its military-industrial complex, Iran has succeeded in building one of the world’s biggest drone fleets – and is supplying the Russians with thousands of sophisticated “killer drones” that the Kremlin is using to pummel Ukraine.
What’s more, debris from the battlefield suggests that Iranians have been able to rely on Chinese copies of Western parts to build their drone stockpile, while they’ve also acquired Western-made parts to power their drones. Clearly, Western sanctions haven’t had the intended effect of cutting Iran off and making it squirm. (To be sure, the EU has recently imposed sanctions on Iran drone makers, while the US sanctioned Iranian flight companies for helping transfer drones to Russia. Still, it comes after Iran had already developed one of the best arms games in the business.)
Moreover, that countries including China and the United Arab Emirates have had no qualms about flouting Western sanctions on Iranian energy exports suggests that the perceived cost of buying and selling Iranian oil has waned.
What more could be done? The US could sanction Iran’s drone program and increase the pace of its ad-hoc sanctions regime. What’s more, while hundreds of Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe and the US, many Iranian dignitaries continue to get the royal treatment in global forums.
Looking ahead. The UN Human Rights Council says it will hold a special session to discuss Iran on Nov. 24. Meanwhile, the world's largest and most influential economies are currently gathering at the G-20 summit to talk about all things geopolitics. Will their response to Iran be united and stern? Don’t hold your breath.
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Why Israel now supports an Iran nuclear deal
Israel fiercely opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but now is not so against it as it was before.
Why?
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says the Israelis have realized that a no-deal scenario doesn't serve the country's interest — and that the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal was a mistake because it brought Iran closer to getting the bomb.
And why does Israel get to have nukes but not Iran?
"Well, international relations is about double standards, right?"
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The Iran nuclear deal
The Iran nuclear deal was enacted in 2015 to stop Tehran from getting the bomb in exchange for economic sanctions relief. At the time it was a big win — especially for the Obama administration.
But not everyone was a fan. Critics say the deal only slowed down the nuclear program, didn’t address Iran's support for Hezbollah, and hardly reset US-Iran ties.
Then, as he promised on the campaign trail, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
Since taking office, Biden has made it a priority to revive the agreement. Some progress has been made.
But now, the war in Ukraine is a problem because Russia is at the negotiating table. If the Russians walk away, the deal will be hard to implement politically. Moscow may also use its support for the deal as leverage to lift Western sanctions. And then there's the global oil crisis, which gives the Iranians more bargaining power.
What's more, a new US administration could still withdraw (again) in 2025.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The pros and cons of a nuclear program for Iran
Has the war in Ukraine changed Iran's calculus on getting nuclear weapons?
Not necessarily, says Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group. Like the Ukrainians now, the Iranians know Iraq and Libya basically gave up their weapons programs and then got invaded — a sharp contrast to North Korea when Donald Trump was in the White House.
Tehran, he tells Ian Bremmer, is fully aware that once they go nuclear, the strategic balance of power becomes a game based on how many nukes you have, and that they may suffer a strike before they acquire the capability anyway.
Still, Vaez explains that Ukraine has changed things somewhat because the Russians have moved the goalposts by making their support for the deal contingent on lifting Western sanctions against Russia, which the Iranians resent because they too need sanctions removed.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
The US can’t let Iran get any closer to nuclear weapons, says Iran expert Ali Vaez
Even if the US rejoins the Iran nuclear deal, many Republicans are fiercely opposed to it — and could withdraw again in 2025 if they win the White House in two years.
Why do it at all then? Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group, has some thoughts.
For one thing, it'll buy us nine years before the Iranians can enrich enough uranium for a nuke. For another, now we know the real effect of pulling out: it boosted Iran's nuclear program.
What's more, if the US withdraws for a second time, Vaez says the terms of the deal will leave Tehran where it is today: "uncomfortably close to nuclear weapons."
How close? Well, he says, in a matter of four weeks the Iranians could enrich enough uranium to be 99% of the way to weapons-grade.
A single weapon is not an arsenal, but Vaez thinks that's still "too much of a risk and ... too uncomfortable for Israel and the US."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?
Models of oil barrels and a pump jack are displayed in front of a rising stock graph
What We're Watching: Soaring oil prices, inching towards an Iran nuclear deal
Rising energy crisis? Barely a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy prices are going up faster than most experts predicted. Brent oil rose above $119 a barrel on Thursday, while Dutch natural gas futures — the benchmark for Europe — were trading at the equivalent of $360 per crude barrel. What’s more, prices are already soaring before Western sanctions have targeted Russian oil and gas, which could provoke Moscow into cutting off supplies to Europe. Why is this happening? Demand for Russian commodities has plummeted over fears that the next wave of sanctions will include energy. This week, the US and 30 other countries announced the release of 60 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves to stop the bleeding, but that won’t be enough if the Russians turn off the tap. Will the Europeans continue supporting tough sanctions when their citizens start complaining about the cost of electricity bills and gas at the pump?
Is the Iran nuke deal being revived? The 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran could reportedly be revived within the coming days or weeks. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency plans to visit Tehran on Saturday to try to iron out a couple points of contention and shore up support for the accord, which would give Iran sanctions relief — likely including lifting bans on its oil exports — in exchange for Tehran hitting the brakes on its nuclear program. But critics say that the Biden administration’s push to return to the terms of the 2015 deal is misguided because Iran’s nuclear program is now significantly more advanced. Since the US abandoned the deal in 2018, Tehran has been upping its uranium enrichment game, a claim supported by the Vienna-based IAEA, which said Thursday that Iran is close to having enough material to make an atomic bomb. Meanwhile, a former US State Department official tweeted Wednesday that the US was preparing to lift sanctions on the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as well as on the supreme leader's office, though those claims have not been corroborated.
Truckers and their supporters protest coronavirus disease vaccine mandates, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
What We’re Watching: Truckers take Ottawa, Iran nuclear deal 'final stage,' Israeli spying scandal, Turkey-Greece disco row
Ottawa “out of control.” Is Washington next? Hundreds of Canadian truckers angry about vaccine mandates have paralyzed the country’s capital for more than a week, blocking roads, blaring horns, and demanding an end to pandemic restrictions. City officials have now declared a state of emergency, with the mayor admitting the situation is “out of control.” While the provincial government in Alberta has pledged to lift all restrictions in response to local sympathy protests, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has refused to meet with the truckers. Meanwhile, his Conservative opponents are split on whether to support the truckers. Recent polls show that only about 30% of Canadians sympathize with the protests, but the cause has attracted global attention and lots of cash: a GoFundMe campaign raised some $8 million before being shut down. Meanwhile, US truckers are planning to descend on Washington, DC, with a similar convoy next month. Given the shortage of truckers and rising consumer prices, will protesting truckers be seen as freedom fighters or be blamed for shortages of vegetables?
Iran nuclear pact: breakthrough or breakdown? The eighth and likely final stage of Iran nuclear negotiations kicks off Tuesday in Geneva. The long-stalled talks halted (again) last week as diplomats from China, Russia, the UK, France, and Germany flew home to brief their respective governments on the progress. Some experts believe a return to the nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018, is likely. Why the optimism? Because the US last week agreed to restore some sanction waivers, which means foreign companies working with Iran on civilian nuclear projects would be exempt from economic penalties. Still, disagreements remain: Tehran refuses to negotiate directly with Washington, for example, and wants the restoration of all sanction relief promised under the 2015 deal. Critics say the window for reaching an agreement has closed because Iran is just weeks away from amassing enough material to build a nuclear bomb. Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, meanwhile, warned that Israel could still launch a military strike against Iran even if the negotiating countries recommit to the nuclear deal.
Israeli spying scandal. Israel’s government has vowed to investigate new bombshell claims that the police used spyware to hack activists, civil servants, politicians, and other high-profile public figures, including witnesses in the ongoing corruption trial of former PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Pegasus software, developed by the Israeli firm NSO, has been the target of much scrutiny in recent months after it was revealed that several authoritarian governments bought the software – with the permission of Israel’s Defense Ministry – to crack down on dissidents and political opponents. (Pegasus has since been blacklisted in the US.) PM Naftali Bennett said Monday that the allegations were very serious and will be thoroughly investigated. Still, some Israelis fear that Netanyahu, who was ousted last year, might use the revelation to stall his corruption trial. Bibi’s son (also a hacking victim) and lawyers have already launched such a campaign.
What We’re Listening To
Funky town controversy in Turkey. The latest spat between Turkey and Greece doesn’t center on the usual issues, such as Cyprus, gas drilling rights in the Mediterranean, or the endless debate about who really invented yogurt. This time it’s about a disco party held at a former Orthodox Monastery in Eastern Turkey. Although the 4th-century cliffside Sumela complex lost its religious function a hundred years ago when ethnic Greeks were expelled from the new Turkish Republic, it’s a popular destination for Greek Orthodox pilgrims. Athens has protested, saying that social media clips of the party are “offensive” and a “desecration.” Come on, Turkey and Greece – can’t we all just join hands and start a love train?
Israeli and Bahraini flags are seen on USS COLE (DDG-67) during Defence Minister Benny Gantz's visit to 5th Fleet Headquarters Navy Base in Juffair, Bahrain.
Prepping for a fight in the Middle East
As the world waits to see whether Russia will invade Ukraine, a different set of military tensions is steadily rising in the Middle East. This week, for the first time ever, naval vessels from Israel and Saudi Arabia operated together as part of a 60-nation, US-led training exercise.
This remarkable political and military milestone suggests that both countries, many of their Arab neighbors, and the US Navy are now actively preparing together for a moment when tensions with Iran, their common enemy, could spill over into open conflict.
This show of well-coordinated strength comes at a time when Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have again expanded that country’s civil war by firing missiles at targets inside the United Arab Emirates in recent weeks. This happened during a visit by Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the UAE, activating defenses at a base that houses US soldiers.
The backdrop for all this posturing is the international bargaining over Iran’s nuclear program, which has reached a critical period. After lengthy delays and a month of talks, negotiators from Iran, the US, Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany returned home on January 28 to brief their governments on progress made and unresolved sticking points.
An agreement by all sides to recommit to the 2015 nuclear deal would certainly cool the region’s rising security temperature, but there are two main obstacles.
First, the US can’t guarantee that a future US president won’t decide to abandon the deal as former President Donald Trump did in May 2018. Why, Iran asks, should we commit to a plan the Americans won’t promise to honor?
Second, Iran’s leaders may be confident that their economy can withstand the pressure of continued, even intensified, US sanctions. Oil prices, now at their highest point in years, are bringing new revenue to Tehran’s coffers. Russia and China have agreed to new trade deals with Iran, and its nuclear program is making rapid progress. Moreover, Iran has already endured so much economic pain that its leaders may calculate it can tolerate this misery indefinitely.
The US and Iran might yet reach an agreement, particularly since the deal’s terms will expire in 2026 anyway, and neither side would have to remain committed to the terms for long. Getting to “yes” could postpone a crisis that no one at the table wants.
But if negotiations fall apart, then it will matter much more that Israel, Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the US are all working together to up the military pressure on Iran. No one wants a war that could quickly destabilize the entire Middle East, but Israel and the Saudis will not sit on their hands as Iran accumulates enough highly enriched uranium for several bombs, sets more advanced centrifuges spinning, and advances closer than ever before to unveiling a nuclear weapon.
In short, if there’s no deal in the coming weeks, all sides will prepare for real trouble, which may begin with increasingly sophisticated cyber-attacks and sabotage strikes inside Iran. The risk of spillover into broader conflict can’t be ignored.
Increased cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states could also come with one big silver lining for peace in the region. First, the normalization of relations between the Israeli and Arab governments is creating major trade and investment opportunities that boost growth across the entire region. Israel’s government opened formal relations with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020.
Second, at a time when the US is less willing to accept the risks that come with managing conflict in the Middle East, alignment between the Israelis, Saudis, and UAE – with US backing – could still persuade Iran to avoid fights it can’t win.
Israel conducted naval exercises with the UAE and Bahrain in November 2021, and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz signed a defense cooperation agreement with Bahrain this week. And these historic naval exercises will take cooperation a step further.
For now, however, it’s the fate of the nuclear deal that will determine how high the mercury rises in the Middle East this year.