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What We’re Watching: US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Fukushima wastewater, US stops J&J jab, big rabbit hunt
The end of "forever" in Afghanistan: The Biden administration says it'll withdraw all remaining US troops in Afghanistan by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks that prompted Washington to invade the country in the first place. It's unclear how the withdrawal will affect American plans to steer intra-Afghan peace talks in the right direction under the terms of a peace agreement reached by the Trump administration and the Taliban in May 2020. Trump promised to pull out next month as long as the former al-Qaida hosts kept their end of the bargain by not launching deadly attacks (spoiler alert: they have not). Biden's move honors his campaign pledge to end a "forever war" that has claimed more than 2,300 American lives and cost the US Treasury almost $1 trillion since 2001. However, critics fear that a hasty departure could leave the Afghans helpless to prevent the Taliban from returning to power, rendering the entire mission not only expensive, but ultimately pointless.
Japan's nuclear waste problem: Japan has announced that in two years it will begin dumping treated radioactive wastewater from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster directly into the Pacific Ocean. Unsurprisingly, the decision has outraged local fishermen, environmental groups, and Japan's neighbors China and South Korea. Tokyo says the water, which has been treated, is safe, and that there is no other choice: the tanks that now store the liquid are almost full and they can't build more on current sites. Critics, in turn, argue that the Japanese government could acquire more land for the tanks, or follow the International Atomic Energy Agency's alternative recommendation to release the water into the atmosphere as vapor. Whether or not Tokyo reverses course, what to do with Fukushima's wastewater will likely be a hot-button issue in Japan's domestic politics and foreign relations over the next two years.
US hits pause on J&J vaccine: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration have jointly recommended a "pause" in the use of the Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine "out of an abundance of caution" following news that six people have developed a "rare and severe" type of blood clot after receiving doses. Out of more than 6.8 million doses, six people have developed these symptoms, all of them within 6 to 13 days of vaccination. Some observers will congratulate US health officials for their abundance of caution. Others will criticize a decision to slow vaccinations over a "very rare event" at a time when vaccine rollout is critical. But even if the pause in J&J jabs is a brief one, doubts have now been raised about the safety of a vaccine already administered to millions of Americans. The challenge of persuading the vaccine-averse in the US — and elsewhere — to roll up their sleeves just got a lot bigger.
Good Rabbit Hunting: Have you seen Darius? He is the world's largest rabbit, and he's been stolen from his home in the village of Stoulton in central England. Be on the lookout, Signal readers. Darius is 4 feet 3 inches long and weighs 44 pounds. For those of you on the metric system, that's 129 cm and 20 kg. There's a reward of more than a thousand dollars/euros/pounds for his return. But we're not in this for the money ourselves - we're searching because… who wouldn't want to see a rabbit that big? Here's to Darius's rediscovery and safe return to an owner who loves and cares for him.
J&J vaccine review will cause hesitancy; Blinken warns China on Taiwan
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week on World In 60: J&J vaccine woes, Blinken warns China, Fukushima water and a large rabbit.
How will the pause of Johnson & Johnson vaccine affect the overall pandemic fight in the United States?
Yeah. Right at it, right? Well, we heard that the FDA has suspended vaccines from J&J because of blood clots. They found six in seven million cases. It's kind of like the suspension of AstraZeneca in Europe. It's likely only going to last for a few days. It's a very small percentage of the total number of vaccines that are being jabbed right now into the arms of Americans. It's not going to really slow America's ability to get everyone vaccinated, but it is going to create more vaccine hesitancy. People at the margins will say, "Is this safe? They said it was fine. Now they're saying it's not okay." I understand why there's enormous caution on the part of the FDA, but I wish, wish, wish the communications had been a little softer around all of this. Also will be a problem in terms of export, as J&J is going to be a piece of that. And again, others around the world will say, "Well, if I don't get Moderna, if I don't get Pfizer, I'm not sure I want to take it at all." So all of this is negative news, though I would still say the United States this year is looking really, really good among major economies in dealing with pandemic.
Secretary of State Blinken recently warned that China interfering with Taiwan would be a "serious mistake". What would an interference it look like?
It could be anything from cyberattack against Taiwan assets to shutdowns or constraints on Taiwanese businessmen and women who make so much of their money in mainland China. You could imagine that you could see some arrests on national security bases of some Taiwanese operating in the United States, general harassment, right? And then, most significantly would be interference with Taiwan's military capabilities. We've already seen a lot more military exercises in contested territory of mainland China, in and around Taiwanese airspace and naval space, water space. So all of this is looking more challenging, the Americans standing up for Taiwan. But Secretary of State Blinken saying very pointedly, the US will help the Taiwanese defend themselves. Did not say the US would come to Taiwan's defense. That is not part of the agreement with the United States. Chinese very aware of that.
Why is Japan dumping contaminated Fukushima water into the ocean?
Well, because they're running out of space to store it, because they've done decontamination around it, but it's still radioactive. Apparently, levels of tritium, as well as other radioactive elements still in the water. It is quite controversial as to whether this is safe or not. The original plan the Japanese government put out was approved by the International Energy Agency about a year ago. There is radioactive wastewater that is disposed of, also evaporating into the atmosphere from other nuclear plants around the world. The Japanese incredibly risk-averse population around this stuff so they're going to be very focused on whether or not this is all being done in a way that is completely unproblematic to the population at large, marine life, you name it. Anyway, I don't think we have the final word from science on this, but clearly something that the Japanese government is going to have to deal with. And by the way, they could continue to store it. They just would have to build additional storage capacity, which is going to cost them money. So, that's the question here. It's all about economics.
Optional kicker question. Where in the world is Darius, the "World's Longest Rabbit"?
Who's into this stuff? So a rabbit, it's a pet, but it's barely a pet. It's apparently the longest rabbit in the world. It's four feet long. It was in England, and it was abducted from the house of the owner. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, Darius is the longest rabbit in the world. That's if Darius is still alive. We'll see. Stay tuned. Next week or not. I probably won't to talk about it again.
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