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Why this COVID surge is different than 2020; behind Putin's threats
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on Omicron, Putin's antics, and Chile's millennial president.
With Omicron cases increasing, is December 2021 really any different than December 2020?
Of course, it's different. You know why it's different? Because so many more people are vaccinated and so many people have already gotten COVID, which means the likelihood that they're going to be severely hospitalized or die goes way, way down. So we should be worrying less individually about COVID even though the policy impact the shutdown impact for at least a few weeks is going to be very significant. And of course, if you haven't gotten your boosters, get those boosters. Of course if you're not vaccinated, I don't know what a booster's going to do for you. Why am I even telling you that?
Why is Putin threatening a military response to NATO?
Well, I mean, first of all, it's kind of what he does, right? I mean, it does sort of go with the job, when you interview for it you have to be willing to threaten a military response to NATO. Secondly, because he controls the media in Russia and they are trying to justify a escalated, recently escalated, military stance. As well as willing to take a more hawkish position against the Ukrainians. And that means you have to justify that NATO is doing stuff against you. And so they've been saying that NATOs sending sort of illicit forces in South Ukraine with chemical weapons capabilities. They're saying that genocide is being perpetrated by the Ukrainians against ethnic Russians. None of this is true, but if you're Russian and all you get for media is Russian state media you actually believe that war is being planned and it's coming from the West. And so in that regard, Putin's ginning up a lot of hostility. What he is going to do with it, of course, is a question for the next couple months. We will see. Certainly it seems like Putin is planning on escalating. I don't think that means invasion, but I do think it means activity against the Ukrainians. We will see what that means.
With Chile electing its youngest president ever, what's next for the country?
Well, I mean, they'll spend a lot more money and they will improve public services. It seemed, I mean, last week an election was hitting both the far left and the far right candidates were moderating their stances to get votes. And that appears to be consistent with the statements that this guy Boric has been making in the days since he's been elected. But this is a huge shift from the wealthiest of South American countries that had been very comfortable with center right policy orientations, it's also got much more unequal. And so this is big backlash and that's why they're redoing the constitution, which is also being controlled by leftist coalition, and it's who the next president is in Chile. So lots afoot in a country that's usually kind of boring and we like it that way.
“Politics ought to be boring”: Tom Nichols on Biden’s first 100 days
For international relations expert Tom Nichols, the best way to have a non-divisive US presidency is to elect a president who's "kind of boring." That's what Joe Biden has delivered so far, a stark contrast to the high drama of the previous administration, and deeply unsettling for the GOP. Ian Bremmer's interview with Nichols on the latest episode of GZERO World begins airing on US public television Friday, April 30. Check local listings.
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the administration's coronavirus disease (COVID-19) response outside the White House in Washington, U.S., April 27, 2021.
What's the verdict on Biden's first 100 days?
Ever since Franklin Delano Roosevelt promised to rescue the country from the Great Depression during his first 100 days in office, that timeframe has become a customary early benchmark to assess the performance of US presidents.
When Joe Biden took office on January 20, the country was mired in a Depression-like crisis caused by the COVID pandemic and associated economic fallout. So how well has he done during his first 100 days in office? Eurasia Group analyst Clayton Allen explains where Biden has performed best and where he's missed a few shots already.
What key goals has Biden accomplished?
Biden has delivered on his two biggest priorities: passing additional COVID relief measures and accelerating vaccine delivery in the US. He passed a $1.9 trillion package that included $1,400 direct payments to most Americans and has delivered over 200 million vaccine doses so far, twice the amount initially targeted in this first 100 days. Those are unqualified successes. After all, he ran on the promise of bringing America out of the COVID crisis and he's doing it.
At the same time, Biden has moved to reestablish US leadership on climate change issues, end the 20-year war in Afghanistan, and establish a new detente with old adversary Iran. Here the results have been more mixed.
The White House's Earth Day climate summit succeeded in bringing global rivals to the table and producing a new round of emissions reductions commitments — but without a clear plan to deliver on these goals. Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal plan will finally end the country's longest war, but he's drawn bipartisan criticism for leaving the country without a plan in place to ensure stability thereafter. The president's efforts to re-engage Iran and revive the 2015 nuclear deal are still in their early days, but they do have a feasible pathway to a deal late this year or in 2022. Let's see.
What goals has he not met?
During the campaign, Biden made big promises about reversing Donald Trump's restrictive immigration policies, including moving the cap on refugees admitted to the country from 15,000, the level set by Trump, back to its historic level of about 65,000. But Biden has in fact decided to temporarily hold the cap on refugees at Trump-era levels — because of the challenges involved in quickly ramping up these numbers. That got him a lot of flak from the progressive wing of his own party. Relatedly, the president has made little progress devising a more humane system for processing asylum seekers at the border, though given the deep divisions on immigration policy in Congress, that seems nearly impossible to achieve not only in the first 100 days but in the next 1,359 as well.
Biden also seems to have underestimated the difficulty of achieving his stated goal of restoring the US's global influence after the retrenchment of the Trump years. This was never going to be possible in 100 days, but the administration seems to have stumbled out of the starting blocks, drawing international criticism for its reluctance to export coronavirus vaccines. The White House also seemed somewhat taken aback at increased Chinese assertiveness as it sought to reset the dialogue with the US's chief global rival. US diplomats have found themselves playing defense instead of relaunching the dialogue on their own terms.
What unexpected issues have arisen and how has Biden dealt with them?
No one would have been shocked in late 2020 to hear that Russia would ramp up aggression toward Ukraine, but few might have guessed it would mobilize more than 100,000 Russian troops plus tanks, planes, and ships at the Ukrainian border at the start of April. A few days later, Biden reasserted US willingness to push back with an executive order that ramps up sanctions on Russian debt, specific officials, and certain other entities, while leaving open a clear lane for further escalations. The order sent a clear signal that sanctions policy under the new administration will be more forceful than under Trump, though Biden's subsequent offer of a summit with Putin suggests that the administration will also use diplomacy to manage the increasingly fraught relationship. For now, the situation at the Ukrainian border seems to have deescalated after Russia pulled back from its buildup.
How has the public responded to Biden?
With approval ratings in the mid-50s, Biden is outpacing Trump at the 100-day mark and is trailing or roughly even with the four presidents before that. This performance is not great, but not bad either considering the high levels of polarization in the country. It is underpinned by Biden's success delivering more stimulus: Polls showed that some 80 percent of voters were ready for more aid when Biden took office, even after the trillions doled out in 2020.
Biden is less popular at this point in his presidency than the last Democratic president, Barack Obama. But unlike Obama, Biden doesn't seem likely to face a substantial backlash anytime soon that erases public goodwill; by this point in his first year in office, Obama was faced with the early stages of the "Tea Party" movement that would lead to his party's loss of control of Congress and largely create the current GOP. Biden, thanks in part to his relatively popular agenda and extremely low public profile, has avoided the type of swift public backlash that mired Obama, though the now somewhat stale criticisms that Republicans have used to demonize Democratic presidents have lost some of their potency.
How has Biden changed US politics?
One hundred days is not enough time to truly judge this, but Biden stands out in a couple ways. First, after the success of his coronavirus relief bill and in the absence of effective Republican opposition, the president is unabashedly embracing tax-and-spend policies that Democrats have been shy about for thirty years.
Though low interest rates and the pandemic emergency made possible the record levels of borrowing that financed the COVID relief, Biden is now proposing sharp tax increases as he cues up his next spending plans. These include a $2.3 trillion bill to modernize the country's infrastructure and mitigate the threat of global warming, as well as another $1.5 trillion for childcare, paid family leave, and universal preschool.
Second, to many people's surprise, Biden is continuing some of the protectionist, populist trade policies championed by Trump in his "America First" approach. With his "foreign policy for the middle class," Biden is signaling a more permanent break with the pro-trade, business-friendly, and small government consensus that dominated Washington for a generation. Tariffs on China, increased skepticism toward trade generally, and a more expansive role for government are here to stay.
Clayton Allen is a Director in the United States practice at Eurasia Group.
J&J vaccine review will cause hesitancy; Blinken warns China on Taiwan
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week on World In 60: J&J vaccine woes, Blinken warns China, Fukushima water and a large rabbit.
How will the pause of Johnson & Johnson vaccine affect the overall pandemic fight in the United States?
Yeah. Right at it, right? Well, we heard that the FDA has suspended vaccines from J&J because of blood clots. They found six in seven million cases. It's kind of like the suspension of AstraZeneca in Europe. It's likely only going to last for a few days. It's a very small percentage of the total number of vaccines that are being jabbed right now into the arms of Americans. It's not going to really slow America's ability to get everyone vaccinated, but it is going to create more vaccine hesitancy. People at the margins will say, "Is this safe? They said it was fine. Now they're saying it's not okay." I understand why there's enormous caution on the part of the FDA, but I wish, wish, wish the communications had been a little softer around all of this. Also will be a problem in terms of export, as J&J is going to be a piece of that. And again, others around the world will say, "Well, if I don't get Moderna, if I don't get Pfizer, I'm not sure I want to take it at all." So all of this is negative news, though I would still say the United States this year is looking really, really good among major economies in dealing with pandemic.
Secretary of State Blinken recently warned that China interfering with Taiwan would be a "serious mistake". What would an interference it look like?
It could be anything from cyberattack against Taiwan assets to shutdowns or constraints on Taiwanese businessmen and women who make so much of their money in mainland China. You could imagine that you could see some arrests on national security bases of some Taiwanese operating in the United States, general harassment, right? And then, most significantly would be interference with Taiwan's military capabilities. We've already seen a lot more military exercises in contested territory of mainland China, in and around Taiwanese airspace and naval space, water space. So all of this is looking more challenging, the Americans standing up for Taiwan. But Secretary of State Blinken saying very pointedly, the US will help the Taiwanese defend themselves. Did not say the US would come to Taiwan's defense. That is not part of the agreement with the United States. Chinese very aware of that.
Why is Japan dumping contaminated Fukushima water into the ocean?
Well, because they're running out of space to store it, because they've done decontamination around it, but it's still radioactive. Apparently, levels of tritium, as well as other radioactive elements still in the water. It is quite controversial as to whether this is safe or not. The original plan the Japanese government put out was approved by the International Energy Agency about a year ago. There is radioactive wastewater that is disposed of, also evaporating into the atmosphere from other nuclear plants around the world. The Japanese incredibly risk-averse population around this stuff so they're going to be very focused on whether or not this is all being done in a way that is completely unproblematic to the population at large, marine life, you name it. Anyway, I don't think we have the final word from science on this, but clearly something that the Japanese government is going to have to deal with. And by the way, they could continue to store it. They just would have to build additional storage capacity, which is going to cost them money. So, that's the question here. It's all about economics.
Optional kicker question. Where in the world is Darius, the "World's Longest Rabbit"?
Who's into this stuff? So a rabbit, it's a pet, but it's barely a pet. It's apparently the longest rabbit in the world. It's four feet long. It was in England, and it was abducted from the house of the owner. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, Darius is the longest rabbit in the world. That's if Darius is still alive. We'll see. Stay tuned. Next week or not. I probably won't to talk about it again.
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Biden's first press conference reaffirms his working man approach
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Joe Biden gave the first press conference of his presidency today, a much-anticipated event that a lot of political reporters were pretty excited about, that didn't really move the needle on any messaging aspects of the administration.
He kind of stuck to the party line on the filibuster, saying that it's a relic of Jim Crow era. And clearly, you know, he's already said he supports eliminating it, but he's not going to push Congress to get it done because that's not really his job. That's their job.
On the border, he talked about sending Kamala Harris down to negotiate a solution with Mexico and other Central American countries so they can deal with the problem where it starts. And he kind of took credit for being a compassionate guy, that immigrants believe when they come here, he's going to take care of them, which is consistent with the administration's message so far. A group of Senate Republicans are headed down to the border today in order to make some political theater out of the surge in migrants that's happening down there, and this is going to be an increasing political problem for Biden going forward because of the fact his party is somewhat out of step with the mainstream American view on immigration.
On the vaccine, there was a little bit of news, that he thinks he's going to be able to accelerate the timeline that people can get the vaccination. However, for the most part, this is really a non-event. Biden has stayed out of the spotlight and he hasn't really dominated headlines the way his predecessor, former President Trump, did. This is a purposeful strategy, to kind of have a working man approach to the White House, not make the story about him, and in the meantime, accomplish an awful lot, which the Democrats are likely to do this year between a $1.9 trillion stimulus they've already passed, and what looks like it's going to be potentially a $3 trillion long-term infrastructure spending bill that likely gets done before the end of the year.
Dr. Fauci’s cautious take on post-vaccine life
Dr. Tony Fauci has faced renewed heat lately from critics across the political spectrum, including The View's Meghan McCain, who feel the White House has not provided clear enough guidance to Americans about how to navigate the pandemic. And as millions receive their second jab of COVID-19 vaccines, demands for clear guidelines about what vaccinated Americans can or cannot do have grown louder. On GZERO World, Dr. Fauci offers more context, but stops short from providing definitive answers, about post-vaccine life. "You know, things will change gradually because we want to accumulate data....Just because you're vaccinated, restaurants are not going to open. Ball games are not going to be played necessarily. Theaters are not going to be open."
Ian Bremmer's conversation with Dr. Fauci is part of the latest episode of GZERO World, which will begin airing on US public television nationwide Friday, February 26th. Check local listings.
The battles ahead against COVID-19
"This is the part of the horror film where a happy ending seems in sight, but it is obvious to those paying attention that the monster is not dead and that the worst may be yet to come." That's how New York Times columnist Ezra Klein described this moment in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. We're in a new year, there's a new president, and the record-breaking development of vaccines that work has wounded the monster, but there are deadly battles still ahead. Chief among them: the highly-contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus.
Watch the GZERO World episode: The race to vaccinate
The Biden administration’s vaccine rollout priorities
While surgeon and public health expert Dr. Atul Gawande thinks that the Biden administration has been hitting most of the marks when it comes to turning around the US vaccine rollout operation, there's one area where they need to step things up: the development of cheaper and more effective antiviral drugs for people infected with COVID-19. But when it comes to vaccine distribution itself, Dr. Gawande believes that the current administration has a firm grasp on boosting vaccine supply.
That's a big change from just a few weeks ago, when the country was essentially flying blind on vaccine distribution. Dr. Gawande can speak to that reality because he was an advisor to the Biden/Harris COVID-19 transition task force and saw firsthand that the Trump administration left behind no meaningful vaccine distribution plan. His conversation with Ian Bremmer was part of an episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The race to vaccinate