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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh attend an official welcoming ceremony in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, on Sept. 3, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Putin visits Mongolia, France hears horror case, Deadly Kabul blast, Half a million for a rager, Japan tries to kick back, Guyana makes record blow bust
1: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday visited Mongolia, marking his first trip to an International Criminal Court member state since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Putin’s visit included a meeting with Mongolia’s president and was met with protests demanding his arrest for war crimes related to the deportation of Ukrainian children. Instead of being arrested, Putin was welcomed with a lavish ceremony.
51: On Monday, a French court in Avignon began hearing a horrific sex abuse case involving 51 defendants, all of whom are accused of raping a woman who was routinely drugged by her husband (he is one of the defendants). The case is bringing to light severe problems with France’s laws surrounding rape, which don’t refer to consent explicitly and sometimes make it hard to convict abusers who use drugs to subdue their victims.
6: A suicide bomber killed at least six people in Kabul on Monday and injured at least 13 others. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but the Taliban government of Afghanistan is a major rival of the Islamic State, which has carried out past atrocities against civilians under Taliban control.
500,000: Fraternity brothers from the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill spent over $500,000 dollars raised on GoFundMe to throw a “rager” hosted by conservative country music star John Rich on Monday. The GoFundMe campaign went viral after photos emerged last April of UNC frat brothers holding up a US flag that pro-Palestinian protesters on campus had attempted to take down, instantly making the young men stars on right-wing media.
4: Japan is hardly the first country that comes to mind for work-life balance, with a notoriously grueling work culture that sees most employees working dozens of unpaid overtime hours each month. But Tokyo is looking to change that by encouraging four-day work weeks. The country’s labor department is offering grants and free consulting services targeted at small and medium-sized businesses to help them roll out shorter work weeks — but, so far, only three companies have asked for advice.
200 million: Authorities in Guyana said Sunday that they had seized a record 8,000 pounds of cocaine in a bust of a cache deep in the jungle, with a street value of at least $200,000,000. Guyana is not a producer of cocaine, but traffickers increasingly use its inhospitable jungle as covert staging areas to export the drug, sometimes via homemade submersibles.Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony. Paetongtarn Shinawatra become the 31th Prime Minister and the second female Prime Minister of Thailand after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.
Hard Numbers: New PM in Bangkok, New elections in Kashmir, New copper in Afghanistan, New kidnappings in Nigeria, New fines for X in Brazil
37: Thailand now has its youngest-ever prime minister, with 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter and niece of former PMs Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra, respectively, at the helm. Paetongtarn – who received the royal endorsement on Sunday – faces a tough road ahead, with Thai voters struggling amid a sluggish economy and chaffing after nearly a decade of military meddling in politics, including for her appointment.
10: Voters in Indian-controlled Kashmir will vote for a state assembly for the first time in 10 years starting next month, Indian authorities announced Friday. But the news isn’t going over well in Srinagar, with one local politician saying “This isn’t democracy, it’s a mockery.” The new local assembly will only have nominal control over education and cultural policy, while all other legislation will continue to come from New Delhi. Kashmiri militants, with backing from Pakistan and international terrorist networks, have resisted Indian occupation since 1989, and Kashmir lost its state status in 2019 during a massive crackdown.
16: A joint copper mining venture in Afghanistan between China and the Taliban reportedly broke ground last month after 16 years of delay. Kabul is hanging major economic hopes on the project, which aims to exploit the second-largest untouched copper reserve in the world. But it has also accused Beijing of reneging on key elements of the deal.
20: Nigerian authorities are urgently working to secure the release of 20 medical students who were abducted in Benue State late Thursday. The national police have deployed drones and helicopters in their search, and the Nigerian Medical Association indicated it had received ransom demands. But paying them would be illegal under an anti-kidnapping law passed in 2022.
100,000: Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered X, formerly known as Twitter, to pay 100,000 reais (~$19,774) per day for each account of far-right figures it re-opened in violation of court orders while those figures are under investigation. Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes also placed X CEO Elon Musk under investigation for charges including obstruction of justice. The order has prompted X to close its offices in Brazil, but Brazilians can still access the platform.
Taliban fighters hold Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flags on the first anniversary of the fall of Kabul.
Jihadists, liberators, or administrators of Afghanistan? The Taliban respond.
The Taliban celebrated the anniversary of their return to power in Afghanistan last week.
They assembled at Bagram airbase, the last military outpost of the 20-year American occupation. Flags were hoisted, leftover US military equipment was displayed, and Taliban soldiers wore uniforms shed by fleeing forces loyal to the former government. Speeches were made, and the Quran was recited.
But not much was said about the continued suppression of women, the escalating violence, or the near-universal poverty Afghans find themselves in today.
So, where does the regime stand, and why should the international community trust the Taliban despite this dismal record? We interviewed Suhail Shaheen, the group's international spokesperson and head of its political office in Qatar. (He’s technically also the UN ambassador, but the world body doesn't recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government.)
Our conversation — edited for clarity and length — was published on the day that ISIS-K claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at the Russian embassy in Kabul that killed at least six people, including a top diplomat, the first such attack on a diplomatic mission since the Taliban swept back to power.
Khan: One year after taking over, what are the Taliban’s greatest achievements and biggest failures so far?
Shaheen: Our achievements in the past one year are restoring peace and security; ending corruption in government departments; presenting a budget based on internal revenues with [the] allocation of a portion of it for development; initiating big agricultural projects [...] that’ll irrigate millions of acres of land; converting deserts into farmlands and gardens of fruit-bearing trees; and launching a consortium of Afghan businessmen to invest in key economic projects.
As far as our failures are concerned, we can say we have not been able to totally eliminate poverty and create job opportunities for qualified Afghans. The reason is we have inherited an empty treasury.
It’s true that Afghanistan’s war-dependent economy was essentially broke when the Taliban took over. In response, the group started pushing for getting access to the over $7 billion of Afghan government funds frozen by the US. That didn’t go anywhere — though the UN did appeal to finance the humanitarian crisis triggered by drought and displacement during the last winter.
Khan: Afghanistan’s funds remain frozen and the country remains cut off from the international finance system because it is run by a government nobody recognizes. What does this mean to the Taliban?
Shaheen: These are more political decisions in nature rather than legal ones. Legally, we have all the requirements needed for recognition of a country like having control over the country, being able to defend borders, and having the support of the people. It is a fact that some tools are used against us as pressure; this also includes the matter of not recognizing the current government. However, the present government in Afghanistan is an objective reality, and should be treated as such.
Khan: Claiming the support of the people is a stretch. In August, women marching for their rights in Kabul were dispersed by automatic gunfire. This followed a rollback of the announced policy of allowing girls to attend schools, which was vetoed by Mullah Haibatullah, the Taliban’s supreme leader. Doesn’t this reveal divides within the Taliban regime?
Shaheen: We all agree that access to education is the basic right of the Afghan people, but how to implement this in the light of the Islamic rules and norms of the Afghan society is a matter of deliberation. Now, the issue of opening secondary schools for girls is pending until a new order from the supreme leader.
Khan: But it’s not just about women, some of whom are allowed to work in essential services and humanitarian relief. The Taliban are also criticized for not being inclusive of Afghanistan’s complex ethnic makeup. In the north, the pro-democracy National Resistance Front continues to put up a fight. The problem is that countries won’t work with the Taliban because the Taliban won’t work with all Afghans.
Shaheen: We have representatives of all Afghan ethnicities in the government. For us, it is an inclusive government. However, their definition of inclusive government is different. This is the crux of the matter. They want some high-profile officials of the past government installed in the current one, while we have a different view.
Khan: The Taliban promised peace, but the security situation is still worrisome. Even top Taliban clerics have been killed in a spate of attacks across the country. The International Crisis Group says that the Taliban now face not just one front, but two, ISIS-K in the east and the NRF in the north.
Shaheen: Security is prevalent all over the country. Our opponent's forces do not have a physical presence in any area of the country. Our opponents are in hiding mode. Similarly, they are not able to launch massive attacks against our security forces.
However, they launch individual attacks here and there on soft targets like mosques or schools. This further marginalizes them in the society and reveals their brutal nature to people. Also, security in Afghanistan is in the interest of the international community, while lack of it harms us all.
Khan: But if the Taliban really were concerned about the safety of the international community, why would they allow terror outfits like the Pakistani Taliban to still operate from Afghanistan, as alleged by Pakistan, the US, and even the UN? And what about the presence of al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul residence linked to the Haqqanis, the clan of the Taliban’s interior minister?
Shaheen: The Pakistani Taliban do not operate in Afghanistan, but Pakistani authorities requested us to host talks between the two sides, which we did because we want peace and stability in the region. Each time they would come to Kabul from across the border, take part in negotiations, and return back to their places. This we did in order to play a positive role for the cause of peace.
[Al-Zawahiri] is a US claim. We have launched a comprehensive investigation to find out the veracity of the claim. However, one thing is clear: our leadership was unaware of his presence.
Khan: From having reneged on their agreement to upkeep citizens’ rights to the al-Zawahiri killing, do the Taliban have a message for a skeptical international community that doubts the regime’s intentions because of growing evidence that the Taliban cannot divorce themselves from their jihadist roots?
Shaheen: My message to the international community is that the current government is a reality. The Afghan people have suffered a lot during the past four decades. The current sanctions add more suffering. These should come to an end. The approach of marginalization and confrontation is a vicious circle, we should come out of it. Instead, we should have engagement which, I think, will hopefully resolve outstanding issues.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Lviv, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: Erdogan's diplomacy, carnage at Kabul mosque, US-Taiwan trade talks
Erdogan is everywhere
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been very busy this week. On Thursday, he flew to Lviv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the Turkish president’s first visit to Ukraine since Russia’s war began six months ago. Erdogan, who has tried to position himself as an elder statesman and mediator between Kyiv and Moscow, vowed to help rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure just weeks after brokering a deal with Russia to resume Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports amid a global food crisis. The trio also discussed efforts to secure a contested nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. This comes a week after Erdogan held a face-to-face with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, where they pledged to boost energy cooperation. What’s more, Erdogan’s Ukraine trip came just one day after Ankara announced it was restoring full diplomatic ties with Israel. Indeed, Erdogan is looking to get wins wherever he can as he tries to divert attention from Ankara’s deepening economic woes. In a move that made many economists shudder, Turkey’s central bank on Thursday further slashed interest rates to 13% despite the fact that inflation has topped a whopping 80%. Loosening monetary policy to boost growth has long been Erdogan’s shtick, but as a cost of living crisis continues to hurt Turks, his ruling party is falling in the polls less than a year out from elections.
Worshippers killed in Kabul
At least 21 Afghans were killed, and scores more injured, in a blast on Wednesday night at a mosque in Kabul while worshippers were engaged in evening prayers. Though no group has taken responsibility for the carnage, it is thought to be the work of ISIS-K, an offshoot of the broader Islamic State movement that expanded to Central Asia in 2015 and was responsible for a deadly attack on American troops amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. Over the past year, ISIS-K has been intent on antagonizing the Taliban, which it says insufficiently enforces Sharia law (the two groups have also clashed over territory in the past). This attack also comes weeks after the Taliban labeled ISIS-K “a false sect,” banning Afghans from interacting with the group. Some analysts say that Afghanistan has recorded fewer violent incidents over the past year, in part because US forces are no longer targeting Taliban strongholds. But it's unlikely that many Afghans caught in the crossfires of this deadly battle for influence — in addition to a growing humanitarian crisis — feel the same way.
US-Taiwan trade talks
The US and Taiwan will hold formal trade talks in the fall, Washington announced two weeks after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's uber-controversial trip to the self-governing island sparked a furious response from China. Details are vague, but so far the discussions will focus on boosting digital and agriculture trade, anti-corruption standards, and a range of other issues. Taiwan sold almost $66 billion worth of goods in 2021 to the US, which is Taipei’s second-biggest market after China. But the island is far more dependent on trade with the mainland, which along with Hong Kong accounts for more than 40% of Taiwanese exports. The US, for its part, is keen to deepen economic ties with Taiwan as it tries to expand its influence in the Asia Pacific. Additionally, Washington is very hungry for one thing that Taiwan makes a lot of: semiconductors. Although the CHIPS Act recently signed into law by President Joe Biden aims to boost domestic manufacturing of the tech, the US will still need lots of Taiwanese-made semiconductors in the near term. China, for its part, blasted the talks, warning the US not to undermine Beijing’s “core interests.” While the US maintains robust ties with Taiwan, it does not formally recognize its independence from the mainland.
The Graphic Truth: Who runs the Taliban?
The Taliban have been in control of Afghanistan for a full year. But before they took over, they had a shadow government operating across vast swaths of the country, complete with a justice, policing, and tax system. After the US left, and the democratic Afghan government fled, the Taliban didn’t take long to form an “interim” government not just in Kabul but also their own “spiritual” capital of Kandahar. Today, the regime is split, with the all-important religious leadership residing in Kandahar, and the more bureaucratic, hands-on cadres in Kabul. And this comes with its political divides as well: recently the Kandahar-based supreme leader vetoed Kabul’s decision to let girls return to schools. We list the leading who’s who of the Taliban regime.
Do the Taliban even need US recognition?
Back in August, when the Taliban took over, we asked whether anyone in the international community would recognize them. Now it looks like things are heading that way.
This week, the Kremlin hosted a summit with the Taliban that was attended by China, India and Pakistan, as well as all five Central Asian Republics.
The domestically-focused US, however, wasn't there. The US continues to maintain that the Taliban can't be trusted. But does it matter? In 2021 does a Taliban-led government even need American recognition to function and thrive?
Background: who's willing to recognize the Taliban?
Regional powers like Russia and China have suggested they'll recognize the Taliban, provided that the group safeguards their respective interests.
A pragmatic and increasingly ambitious China wants two things: access to Afghanistan's mineral wealth, and an opportunity to build bridges and roads across the country as part of its vision to crisscross Asia with Chinese infrastructure. Russia wants to ensure the Taliban don't give safe haven to militants targeting Russia and the Muslim-majority former Soviet republics in Central Asia.
The isolated Taliban will surely want Beijing's infrastructure investment – and the job creation that goes with it. And while it's unclear how much economic influence Russia has on the ground, Moscow has emerged as the key power-broker in recent months, suggesting it does have diplomatic clout as it tries to maintain good relations with the new government in Kabul.
Moreover, Pakistan has long enjoyed close ties with the Taliban, while Turkey has been cozying up to the Taliban as part of its effort to expand its influence in Muslim-majority countries, and stop an influx of Afghan refugees arriving via Iran. India – worried that a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan would help its arch-nemesis Pakistan launch attacks against it – wants to maintain solid relations with Kabul as well.
But… does the Taliban-led government even need the US' endorsement to function?
To a certain degree, yes. The US dominates the global financial system, with some two-thirds of international trade and lending done in US dollars. It also has sufficient control over the SWIFT system, which allows financial institutions and banks to safely transfer money around the globe. Indeed, blocking countries from this network can be extremely painful (just ask the Iranians).
The US has also used its clout at international organizations like the IMF and the World Bank to compel these institutions to suspend projects and payments to Afghanistan in recent months. Additionally, there is still some uncertainty about how US sanctions might apply to a Taliban-run Afghanistan. Anyone caught doing business with Taliban-administered banks might face the risk of sanctions, as is the case with Iran. This is hardly a solid PR ploy to attract outside investment.
What's more, the bulk of Afghanistan's foreign reserves – more than $9 billion – are tied up in US banks, and Washington has ensured that the Taliban only have access to a meager 0.1-0.2 percent of this stash. Even before the takeover, the country's economy was slated to shrink because of the pandemic. Now, a depreciating currency as a result of a cash crunch and falling imports is making matters worse: the IMF recently warned that the state's GDP could shrink by 30 percent this year.
Still, the Taliban can get support and aid from other places. Indeed, the Islamist group could turn to regional development banks for disbursements like the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which the US is not a member of, as well as the Asian Development Bank that already has extensive operations in Afghanistan.
And if all else fails, there's always opium. The Taliban have made a mint from opium production in recent years, with the group accounting for around 85 percent of the global supply. Illicit mining activities have also proven to be a cash-cow, as has the side hustle of selling US-made weapons and vehicles left behind amid the chaotic American withdrawal.
Looking ahead. For all the banter about America being in decline, Uncle Sam still pulls (most of) the levers of power in the global financial system. The Taliban can find alternative sources of support and income – but it certainly won't be easy.
Former Central Bank Governor Ajmal Ahmady discusses Afghanistan's perilous future
Ian Bremmer speaks to exiled Afghan Central Bank Governor Ajmal Ahmady on his own harrowing escape and the perils that await the very much aid-dependent country's economy now under Taliban control.
Calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan was a crisis of Biden’s own making
Joe Biden has been looking for a way out of Afghanistan for decades, and regardless of how ugly things get, he's not turning back. After Trump reached a deal with the Taliban in 2020 to end the war, Biden decided to stick with the arrangement, overruling his own generals. Ian Bremmer explains that while he agrees with Biden's decision to get out, he did not foresee the incompetence of the execution. In that sense, the last few weeks have constituted the greatest foreign policy crisis for President Biden to date, and one that was largely self-imposed. Ian looks at four key failures led to this disaster on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: Afghanistan, 2021: Afghan & US military perspectives as the last soldier leaves
- Afghanistan: Four key failures - GZERO Media ›
- Can Biden recover from his Afghanistan debacle? - GZERO Media ›
- Biden's mistakes in Afghanistan were not "dereliction of duty ... ›
- What does a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan actually mean ... ›
- US has set the stage for Afghanistan’s humanitarian disaster, says Hina Khar - GZERO Media ›