Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Afghanistan earthquake adds to woes on economy, hunger & women's rights
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60:
Will the Afghan earthquake worsen the situation there?
It is a pretty substantial earthquake. Looks like hundreds are dead. And of course, this is on the back of the Taliban taking over, the economy falling apart, a lot of food stress and women being knocked back into the Stone Age. So much that had been fought for over 20 years, trillions of dollars spent. The focus of course recently has been all about Ukraine. And of course the global impact there is much bigger, but we should not forget that the reality of life at Afghanistan today for anyone that wants to be a free citizen and particularly for women and young women is absolutely unconscionable. Not a lot of support after the initial outreach for those that are trying to get out to become refugees to be welcomed in other countries. This is a disaster. It deserves humanitarian aid, even though it has to go through the Taliban and certainly deserves allowing more Afghans to get out. That is a big problem.
Is Putin back to the world stage in Beijing's summit?
I would say that Putin has never left the world stage. He's left the stage for the advanced industrial economies. He is becoming a pariah when we talk about the G7, the United States and rich democracies. And there over time, he's being cut off and he's being cut off very hard. That's very different from India or China or Brazil or any developing country that needs Russia for oil, needs Russia for food, needs Russia for fertilizer. They are not going to be those that were buying lots of defense equipment from Russia. That's not going to happen to the same degree because they won't have the semiconductors. They won't have the spare parts. That's really going to hurt.
But I do think that a recognition on the part of the United States and allies, there are a lot of countries around the world, many of which are democracies that are still very happy to work with Putin. That's a big deal. There's a friend of mine that recently had a meeting with the South African president. And when he sat down, he was like, "I want to thank you so much for teaching us about this country we'd never heard of before." Of course, he was talking about Ukraine and he was being very sarcastic, precisely because the fact that the Americans and others are trying to get the South Africans to pay attention to Ukraine when the South Africans have been trying to get other countries to pay attention to Africa, and those countries have paid very little attention. That's always an issue.
How likely will Ukraine, speaking of Ukraine, get its EU membership?
I think it's almost certain that they will get a unanimous vote in favor of EU candidacy. The process to get from candidacy to membership is very long and requires an awful lot of both economic reform in Ukraine, but also political leverage on other countries because one can keep them held up. Keep in mind, Turkey's been a candidate member for how long, and they never became an actual member of the EU and it's not going to happen. So there is that issue. But frankly, as a candidate member of the European Union, what that does mean is the Europeans are saying that they, as the EU will be at war with Russia. That's a big deal and that is going to affect what Russia's relations are going to be like permanently with the EU going forward, unless I'm wrong and there's some breakthrough negotiation with the Ukrainians, but I just don't see it, no time in the future.
What We're Watching: Taliban ditch poppies, another Chinese COVID mishap, Darfur war crimes tribunal
Taliban ban poppy cultivation
Fulfilling a long-held promise, the Taliban have banned the cultivation of poppies, the main ingredient used in heroin and other opiates. “If anyone violates the decree, the crop will be destroyed immediately, and the violator will be treated according to Shariah law,” the group said. Afghanistan is by far the largest producer of opium, accounting for 85% of all production globally. (After the Taliban took control last year, opium production increased in the country by 8%.) Indeed, the move comes as the Taliban are vying to gain recognition from the international community as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan and unlock millions of dollars worth of foreign reserves currently held in US banks. However, as cash runs dry from the opium trade, regular Afghan farmers who depend on the crops for their livelihood will feel the economic pain. Observers are warning of an impending calamity in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which is already reeling from economic collapse with reports of Afghans being forced to sell their children and organs to survive.
Another China COVID controversy
The numbers remain small by US and European standards, but China has faced record high numbers of COVID infections in recent days, and emergency measures to contain an outbreak of a subtype of the omicron variant in Shanghai has persuaded the government to take actions considered drastic even in China. Thousands of healthcare workers from neighboring provinces and about 2,000 military health personnel were dispatched to the city to help perform COVID tests on all of Shanghai’s 26 million people. State officials say that process wrapped up on Monday, but a two-phase lockdown continues as the scale of the outbreak is assessed. In the meantime, the plan has generated controversy, including across Chinese social media: A rule that anyone testing positive must be isolated from those who test negative has reportedly forced the physical separation in some cases of young children, even babies, from their parents.
Darfur war crimes tribunal kicks off
Nearly two decades after the conflict in Darfur broke out, the first war crimes tribunal kicks off this week in the International Criminal Court at the Hague. Ali Muhammad Abd-al-Rahman, former military commander of the Khartoum-backed Janjaweed militia, could spend the rest of his life behind bars if convicted on a range of war crimes, including murder, rape, and torture. Beginning in 2003, mostly non-Arab rebel groups that felt marginalized by the government of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir took up arms against Khartoum. Al-Bashir and his allies responded with a brutal crackdown on Sudan’s Western Darfur region that led to 300,000 deaths and displaced 1.6 million Sudanese. It has since been deemed a genocide by the United States. Al-Bashir, who was ousted in a popular uprising in 2019, is also wanted by the Hague but remains in custody in Khartoum. While this case is boosting hopes for more accountability for war crimes committed across sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades, it comes amid dashed hopes for democracy in Sudan after a joint civilian-military government was overthrown in a coup last October by former allies of al-Bashir.
Talks with Taliban won’t legitimize them (US already did that)
Want the Taliban to form a more inclusive Afghan government? Talk to them. Otherwise, don't complain about millions of starving Afghans.
That's the advice of Hina Khar, Pakistan's former foreign minister, to Western nations who say they don't want to "enable" the regime.
Khar told Ian Bremmer in a GZERO World interview at the 2022 Munich Security Conference that dialogue with the Taliban won't legitimize their human rights abuses and oppression of women. The US already did that - by inviting the group to the negotiating table in Doha.
What's more, she said, the Americans have not really exited Afghanistan because they're still holding onto the Afghan government's cash reserves.
Watch the GZERO World episode: As democracy erodes: Pakistan’s Hina Khar on “supremely dangerous” global trends
Yes, the war in Ukraine deserves more attention than Syria or Afghanistan. Here’s why.
Yes, the war in Ukraine deserves more attention than Syria or Afghanistan. Here’s why.
It is day 19 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it seems like it's all anyone can talk about. In a country that rarely cares about what happens abroad, 84% of Americans say they are following the news about the war closely. Certainly, it’s getting far more attention than the conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, or Palestine ever have.
I've seen a lot of commentators in the media assert that this is proof that most of us only care about the plight of other white Europeans and have no regard for the fate of poor and brown people in the developing world. In other words, that it’s just another expression of racism.I understand that perspective. God knows it’s true that for too many, empathy is not color-blind. But it's way too simplistic in the case of Ukraine.
In fact, this crisis has captured so much attention despite, not because, of the 2 million refugees already streaming into Europe being overwhelmingly white, Christian, and culturally European.
Imagine how different the coverage would be if those 2 million people were coming into Europe from Africa, the Middle East, or Central Asia instead. Yet because Europe is so willing to welcome and integrate Ukrainians—it doesn’t say great things about humanity, but it is a reality we have to acknowledge—the exodus of the 5-10 million Ukrainians who are likely to leave Ukraine in the coming weeks isn’t nearly as much of a story as what's happening on the ground in Ukraine and the implications for NATO, for the global economy, and even for direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia.
Want to understand the world a little better? Subscribe to GZERO Daily by Ian Bremmer for free and get new posts delivered to your inbox every week.
So no, the main reason why this war is getting so much attention is not racism. It’s because of the outsized impact it could have on global prosperity and peace.
When the world’s largest grain exporter attacks the fifth-largest grain exporter, and when the world’s largest gas exporter and second-largest oil exporter gets cut off from the global trade and financial system, the cumulative impact on everyone in the planet is so much greater than any amount of poverty, deprivation, and death Syrians, Afghans, and Yemenis are experiencing. It doesn't take away from their suffering, but it makes it completely understandable that everyone in the world would pay more attention to Ukraine than to them.In particular, the impact of this war on poor people and poor nations around the world is going to be far greater than that of the conflicts we've seen in any of those countries. As usual, rich people and rich countries will be just fine; poor people and poor countries won’t. Paying more attention to Ukraine than to other tragic, albeit localized, conflicts is therefore justified.
A second reason to care about this war stems from the fact that Russia is a military superpower. The risk of nuclear conflict between the U.S. and Russia poses an existential threat to all of us living in the world. The same cannot be said of any other conflict or humanitarian crisis.
The West is unequivocally at war with Russia. NATO countries may not be sending troops to Ukraine, but they are sending money, supplies, and weapons to help the Ukrainians more effectively kill the invading Russians. They are imposing crippling financial sanctions with the stated purpose to decimate the Russian economy. They are trying to topple Putin’s regime.Western countries may think this is just indirect fighting, but the Kremlin doesn’t see it that way. To them, these steps are as much acts of war against Russia as imposing a no-fly zone would be. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. But we have to acknowledge that the potential for significant escalation, including cyberattacks, economic warfare, disinformation campaigns, proxy terrorism, and yes, even direct military confrontation, makes this an incredibly dangerous environment for the whole world. To be clear, I'm not in any way predicting World War III. I don't think it's imminent. I don't even think it's close. But I recognize it's possible—and much more likely than it was nary a month ago.
Are Ukrainians more deserving of sympathy than Syrians, Afghans, and other victims of conflict? No. Does the war in Ukraine matter more for the world than those other conflicts? Yes, and by a long shot.
Given the stakes, it would be inconceivable—and indeed irresponsible—for us not to spend most of our time focusing on this crisis.
🔔 And if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe to my free newsletter, GZERO Daily by Ian Bremmer, to get new posts delivered to your inbox.
Petraeus on the Afghanistan crisis
Former CIA chief and four-star general David Petraeus, who once commanded US forces in Afghanistan, has been a harsh critic of President Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from the country. Now, as Afghans face one of the worst humanitarian crises of the modern era, Petraeus tells Ian Bremmer how he thinks the United States can still help avert total disaster.
But when it comes to sending aid to the Afghan people, Petraeus acknowledges that challenges remain. “The question is, how do you bring that to bear for the people without enabling the Taliban government, which we won't recognize, I'm sure, if ever?”
Petraeus’ spoke with Bremmer in an interview for GZERO World, which took place at the 2022 Munich Security Conference – just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Ukraine War: Has Putin overplayed his hand?
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia
What We're Watching: Bolsonaro heads to Moscow, Biden moves on frozen Afghan funds, Tunisia's dwindling democracy
Bolsonaro’s bold move. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is heading to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin despite objections from the US and his own aides about the timing, given the Ukraine crisis. But “Tropical Trump” may think the time is just right to try and boost his domestic popularity with some time on the international stage. He’s currently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the run-up to Brazil’s October election. With over 600,000 COVID deaths since the panbdemic started and a battered economy, Bolsonaro also needs to bring home some bacon. Moscow recently issued a two-month ban on exports, and since Brazil is the biggest buyer of Russia’s nitrate fertilizer, Brazilian farmers are worried about their crops. Bolsonaro is expected to ask Putin to revoke the ban. If he secures the deal overseas, will it give him a boost back home?
Biden's order on Afghan funds. President Joe Biden issued an executive order on Friday to unfreeze $7 billion worth of Afghan central bank assets that are currently being held by the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. Under the Order, half of the money will to go to a trust that will distribute the funds for humanitarian relief in Afghanistan, while the other half is earmarked for relatives of 9/11 victims, a complicated process that still needs to make its way through the US courts. Critics say this unusual move will only further hurt ordinary Afghans just as the UN warns that half the population could face severe food insecurity. The move would essentially bankrupt Afghanistan's Central Bank. Unsurprisingly, the Taliban, which is running out of cash, is angry: "This is the money of the people of Afghanistan,” Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban spokesperson, told GZERO. “And so it needs to be unfrozen and released accordingly."
Judging Tunis. President Kais Saeid has further tightened his grip on Tunisia’s judicial system with a decree that allows him to pick, promote and fire judges. Saeid has been ruling Tunisia — the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring as a democracy — by decree since he declared a state of emergency and suspended parliament last summer. The military has since started prosecuting civilians, and secret detention facilities have flourished under the pretext of the emergency. Even the anti-corruption authority has been shuttered. Critics say Saeid is undermining the rule of law by taking control of the executive and legislative branches of power. They are concerned about an upcoming referendum this July on a new constitution currently being drafted by a presidential committee. Protests have since broken out with some chanting "take your hands off the judiciary."
Ahmed Rashid outlines the new political reality in Afghanistan
The Taliban regime is struggling to govern Afghanistan. The country faces potential famine and economic hardship, with a long winter ahead. Many Afghans feel desperate and are likely to flee as refugees or risk their lives in widespread protests. What can we expect to see from the Taliban under these conditions?
Few people know more about the Taliban than journalist and author Ahmed Rashid, who wrote the book on the group — literally. In the months after 9/11, his critically acclaimed 2000 study, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia, became a go-to reference as the US geared up to invade Afghanistan and knock the militant group from power. Rashid spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about the so-called “Taliban 2.0.” How much has the group changed since the days of soccer-stadium executions, television bans, and blowing up world heritage sites?
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
Has the Taliban changed since the 1990’s?
The Taliban regained total control of Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, when the US withdrew after twenty years of war. But the militant group claims to have reformed, and has even tried to show a softer side, perhaps to contrast the barbaric scenes from the last time they were in control from 1996 until 2001.
In the 1990s, women couldn't work, attend school, or leave their homes without a male guardian. They were required to wear burqas in public. Today, the Taliban claims they will respect women’s rights within the confines of their interpretation of Islam. They have also promised to uphold press freedom and adapt to a new, more modern country.
But is “Taliban 2.0” anything more than a clever PR stunt? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer explains why people are skeptical and expect more of the same human rights abuses and repression from the Taliban the world witnessed decades ago.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Taliban 2.0: Afghanistan on the Brink (US AWOL)
- Would you recognize the Taliban? - GZERO Media ›
- The Taliban are super rich. Is it enough to run a country? - GZERO ... ›
- The Graphic Truth: How opium kept the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›
- The slow US retreat from Afghanistan - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Opium keeps the Taliban going - GZERO Media ›