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Imran Khan supporters chant slogans as they condemn the assassination attempt on the former PM in Wazirabad, Pakistan.
After Imran Khan attack, Pakistan’s fatal political threesome escalates
Pakistan is still reeling after the assassination attempt on ex-PM Imran Khan, the born-again Muslim populist who has been campaigning for snap elections and a return to power since being ousted from office last April. After he survived gunshot wounds on his legs Thursday, a three-way political battle between Khan, the civilian government, and its military backers is now spilling onto the streets.
The flurry of accusations, questions, and investigations in the wake of the shooting doesn’t bode well for political and social stability in the world’s fifth most populous country and the only nuclear-armed Islamic republic.
Khan to march on. For the 70-year-old Khan, who’s expected to make a full recovery, the struggle continues. Within 24 hours of being shot, the physically fit former West End Lothario-turned-cricket hero-turned-Islamist took to the cameras, rejecting that he was the target of a lone-wolf attack and blaming it on a plot hatched by PM Shehbaz Sharif, the internal security minister, and a senior military intelligence officer.
Without offering any proof, Khan demanded they all resign. He also promised to return to his “Long March” across Pakistan’s political heartland as soon as he was healthy enough and encouraged his supporters to keep protesting — which they continued to do over the weekend.
Yet, Khan runs a one-man show. Although his Long March is expected to resume on Tuesday, the political momentum he has gathered is expected to weaken at least until he hits the streets again.
Meanwhile, Khan’s demand for snap elections — which he would win by most estimates, considering the size of his rallies and his dominance in by-elections — is unlikely to be heeded by the government or military leaders. Both seem dug in and have called out Khan, pushing to investigate him for politicizing the attack — even alleging that the former PM orchestrated the attack himself, “outdoing Bollywood actors.”
Whodunit? The country has lost too many leaders whose killings have never been properly investigated. But the latest attack is particularly fraught because of what’s at stake.
While the suspected gunman, who was challenged and overpowered by a courageous bystander, confessed that he acted alone in two leaked videos, his story has changed. In the first clip, he said he wanted to kill Khan because the former cricket hero was “misleading” Pakistanis. By his second video, he had shifted to a convenient trope used to justify so many murders across the country: “blasphemy.”
While ballistics and forensics teams have yet to weigh in to confirm or reject the lone wolf theory, Khan continues to claim he was fired upon from two different sides and by multiple attackers. Doctors and eyewitnesses are adding to the confusion and coming up with different versions of how many times he was shot.
The real and conspiracy theories are leading to political chaos. A senior military intelligence official was fingered by Khan as a co-conspirator, triggering the army to pull out its knives. In Pakistan, where spooks enjoy anonymity and immunity, it is rare for a top spy to be investigated for anything, which is exactly what Khan is demanding.
But the praetorian military isn’t budging, and a formal investigation is not yet underway. The lack of cooperation and legal follow-ups is triggering confrontation, further polarizing Pakistan’s partisan politics, where perceptions weigh more than the truth.
The more Khan keeps blaming top government and military officials for the attack and continues to reject the lone wolf theory, the more supporters (and sympathy votes, whenever they’re allowed to roll in) he’ll gain.
Expect the polarization and acrimony to escalate (further) between Pakistan’s political establishment — which includes the older, family-run parties and the powerful military — and Khan’s populist insurgency.
Threatened by divisions, the establishment seems to be digging in for now. Yes, Khan’s accusations have been rejected by the higher echelons of government and the top brass, which seem more united than ever against him. But second-tier officials are now beginning to show their concerns about the pushback Khan’s party is facing. Several mid-level military officials have confirmed their sympathies for Khan’s cause to GZERO.
“[Khan] is keeping up the pressure on the military leadership, which has been divided and thus on the defensive,” says Kamran Bokhari, from the New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy in Washington, DC. “He will use the attack on him to continue to exacerbate rifts within the military in order to try and subordinate the institution to his goal of creating a single-party state.”
In the melee, the army is confronted by perhaps the biggest challenge to its decades-long domination of the state. Indeed, it’s “facing increasing criticism from the country’s heartland of Punjab, which for decades had been the bastion of its support,” Bokhari adds.
But the world’s sixth-largest fighting force is unlikely to yield to Khan’s pressure.
“The men and the machine are inseparable,” Bokhari explains, “in that the military-intelligence complex is so intertwined with the functioning of the state that any change to its role will be a very messy affair — leading to greater destabilization.”
But remember, this is a three-way battle. Despite being way more seasoned than their nemesis, it’s Khan’s political opponents who constitute the current coalition government — the right-leaning Sharifs, the left-leaning Bhutto-Zardaris, and the religious parties — who are struggling for relevance.
“Their objective is to see the military and Khan weaken each other and emerge as beneficiaries of this feud,” assesses Bokhari. “The problem with this strategy is that Khan’s PTI [party] is way more popular. There is also the unmistakable reality that the anti-Khan camp lacks a vision that can counter the PTI narrative.”
The old adage about politics in Pakistan is that there are only three types of people who live there: the rich, the poor, and the soldiers. At this rate, Khan seems to have captured the imagination of many of the first two, while forcing a split in the third.
Sure, there is strength in numbers. But there is also a certain madness in multiples. For regional competitors like India — and stakeholders in Washington and Beijing — this does not spell an E pluribus unum moment for Pakistan.A family with their belongings wade through rain waters following floods in Jamshoro, Pakistan.
What We’re Watching: Pakistan floods, Arctic diplomacy, Iran’s nuclear deal response
Pakistan’s floods get political
After an ongoing economic crisis, political tumult, and increased terror attacks, Pakistan is now facing its worst floods in a decade. Thirty million people —about 15% of the population — have been displaced, most of them in Pakistan’s poorest provinces. As of Sunday, the death toll had crossed 1,000. As inflation continues to soar, hitting 45% on essential items last week, and the government appeals for international support, ousted PM Imran Khan pinned the blame for mismanaging the calamity on Shehbaz Shafir, the current prime minister. Khan keeps pushing for immediate snap elections, but it’s unclear if Pakistan’s worst natural disaster in years will keep the government or displace it. So far, the country is on economic life support, with a $1.2 billion loan expected to be approved Monday by the IMF. But will it be enough to keep Sharif in play?
US diplomacy goes to the North Pole
The Biden administration plans to appoint the first US ambassador to the Arctic amid growing NATO jitters about partners "without limits" China and Russia stepping up their presence there. During a visit to Canada on Friday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned that Russia's shortest path to someday attack North America would be through the Arctic Circle. In recent years, the Kremlin has built new bases there and upgraded Soviet-era facilities, presumably to test new weapons like hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, China now styles itself as a near-Arctic power and is investing billions of dollars to build Arctic energy and infrastructure projects — including the world's largest icebreaker fleet — along what Beijing calls the "Polar Silk Road.” As icecaps melt due to climate change, the region will be more accessible, opening up new navigation channels and vast energy and mineral resources. But that'll put the Russians and the Chinese too close for NATO comfort near the North Pole, which for Stoltenberg demands an entire rethink of the alliance's Arctic strategy.
Make-or-break week for Iran nuclear deal?
Iranian officials are now reviewing the US response to an EU-drafted text to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, with a response expected by the end of the week. Meanwhile, Israel's defense minister visited Washington last week in a last-ditch effort to voice its opposition to reviving the 2015 deal. US President Joe Biden, for his part, is walking a tightrope to ensure the Iranians sign on the dotted line while still trying to contain Tehran’s actions around the world. The Iranians want the Americans to get the UN nuclear watchdog to back off on inspections to verify Iran is not further enriching uranium to make an atomic bomb, something Washington is unlikely to agree to. Still, Iran's battered economy can hardly afford to continue under sanctions, and Biden would certainly like Iranian oil back on the market to bring down global crude prices — which have eased recently in part due to expectations that the deal will be signed in the near term.
A person wears a cap with images of Argentina's President Alberto Fernández and VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
What We’re Watching: Argentine VP’s legal woes, angry Haitians, Pakistan’s Qatari cash push, Trump’s DOJ suit
Is Argentina's VP on the ropes?
An Argentine prosecutor wants VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to spend 12 years behind bars and be disqualified from public office for life for alleged corruption from when her husband was president (2003-2007) and her own two terms in the top job (2007-2015). Cristina — popularly known by her first name — is accused of fixing public works contracts in the southern Patagonia region. The verdict drops in December, but it can be appealed and the process would likely drag on until late 2023 — just in time for the next election. Even if she's convicted, the influential VP is unlikely to see a jail cell. Although she won't have immunity if she loses her Senate seat, the Supreme Court is unlikely to ratify a guilty sentence that would be a political bomb. Still, the trial will have big implications for Cristina and the ruling Peronistas. First, a conviction might compel her to shape the 2023 presidential race by picking a loyal candidate and not the incumbent, Alberto Fernández (no relation), whom Cristina famously doesn't get along with. Second, the legal troubles might help Cristina fire up her base, especially if she decides to run for president. "She views all of this as a conspiracy between the judiciary, businessmen, and the opposition to remove her," says Eurasia Group analyst Luciano Sigalov.
Haitians demand PM’s resignation
Ça suffit! So say thousands of demonstrators in Port-au-Prince. Fed up with sky-high inflation, deepening poverty, and the spread of deadly gang violence, protesters are taking to the streets of Haiti’s capital to demand the resignation of PM and acting President Ariel Henry. Kidnappings and murder are on the rise — more than 200 were killed in just 10 days last month — and Haitians are increasingly worried about their mere survival. Henry has been in power since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, and many suspect that Henry was somehow behind the hit. At least one protester has reportedly died in this week’s demonstrations, and things could quickly grow worse. Some 50% of Haitians are living in poverty, struggling to keep up with inflation upwards of 30%, and saying: enough is enough.
Pakistani PM in Qatar, hat in hand
What would you do if you were staring down the barrel of default and your sworn enemy – who you’re trying to send to jail – was threatening mass unrest? Get out of Dodge, ask for money, and hope the political drama boils over before you return. That's what embattled Pakistani PM Shebhaz Sharif likely hopes to accomplish this week during his visit to Qatar. In Doha, Sharif will offer deals for Qatar to buy shares in Pakistani state-owned businesses like the national airline and — checks notes — the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City, as well as opportunities to sell Pakistan more energy. More importantly, Sharif's trip comes ahead of next week's big meeting to secure a $1.2 billion IMF bailout negotiated in 2019 by ... his predecessor Imran Khan, Sharif's other big headache. Khan, who was ousted in an April no-confidence vote, has been charged with violating the anti-terror act for threatening the judiciary in a fiery speech. The former PM has been summoned to appear before the court to answer the charge on Aug. 31, and Khan's supporters have responded by surrounding his residence to thwart his potential arrest. If the former cricket star is convicted, he faces a prison term and lifetime disqualification from politics.
Trump sues DOJ over Mar-a-Lago search
Donald Trump is suing the Justice Department in a bid to stop the FBI from looking over documents taken from the former US president’s Mar-a-Lago home earlier this month. The materials were recovered as part of an investigation into whether Trump mishandled them — but he says he’s done nothing wrong and that the documents were declassified. The lawsuit requests that an independent lawyer review the documents to see whether any are protected by executive privilege. Since Trump is a likely presidential candidate for 2024, the suit warns that law enforcement “cannot be used as a weapon for political purposes." DOJ officials say that the search warrant was authorized by a federal court “upon the required finding of probable cause,” and they’ll get their chance to address the lawsuit in court. Meanwhile, the judge who approved the search warrant is still deciding whether to allow the evidence presented as justification for the search to go public.Pakistan's prime minister-elect Shehbaz Sharif.
Can Sharif succeed despite Khan’s fiery exit?
As Pakistani PM Imran Khan saw his tenure draw to a close in recent weeks, the former cricket star began pointing fingers at the West, blaming the push for regime change in Pakistan on a US conspiracy. While it didn’t help him stay in the red zone, it did mean Khan was already plotting his return.
Claiming it was “an establishment stitch-up,” says Peter Mumford, head of Eurasia Group's South and Southeast Asia desk, “was not so much about trying to cling to power … as it was sowing the seeds for the election campaign to come.”
Following Khan’s ouster on Saturday, the parliament elected Shehbaz Sharif on Monday. This prompted the resignation of much of Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party from the National Assembly, setting the stage for by-elections to fill those seats.
Sharif faces an unenviable task
Khan was ousted because he lost the military’s support after the two clashed over military appointments and Khan’s anti-US streak. But the main concern was Khan’s mismanagement of the economy.
Pakistan’s budget deficit is at a historic high, and its external debt has risen by 20% in the past year. Now, with inflation at 13%, Pakistan is “in dire economic straits,” says Aqil Shah, a visiting scholar in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. While Khan used populist measures to soften the blow of rising fuel prices, the economy’s gone from bad to worse on his watch.
To get Pakistan’s deal with the IMF back on track (now frozen), Sharif will have to implement tougher measures, which won’t be popular. “To some extent, [Sharif’s] taking over a poisoned chalice,” says Mumford.
So can Sharif pull it off?
While he’s never been tested at the national level, the younger brother to three-time PM Nawaz Sharif has “proved himself to be quite an effective chief administrator in Pakistan’s second-largest province,” says Shah. Sharif knows he must inject confidence back into the market while providing some relief amid staggering inflation, and he has to do it all by generating support across a disparate coalition.
In his first speech on Monday, Sharif made it clear that addressing the economic crisis is his priority. He announced a higher minimum wage and boosted pensions for some retirees. This struck the right chord for many, given the painful effects of higher prices. “The problem is that it falls in contradiction from what the IMF expects, so it’ll be a tough balancing act” to boost the economy, Shah adds.
Mumford agrees and says Pakistan will need to tighten its belt, and soon, in order to get the $3 billion from the IMF before the September deadline.
Will Pakistan’s foreign policy change?
Sharif, with the support of the military, is expected to try and improve ties with Washington. Pakistan’s military relies upon equipment from the US, which is one of the reasons the generals chaffed at Khan’s aggressive anti-Washington stance. Moreover, the US is a huge export market for Pakistan. But Washington has shown less interest in Pakistan in recent years. To balance that out, it makes sense that the country would seek to bolster ties with traditional allies, China and Saudi Arabia, and even Russia, as it did under Khan, as a result.
Sharif is expected to focus on Saudi Arabia and China, and he’s already announced plans to expedite the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project. The Sharif brothers are also known for being more conciliatory toward India. But the main difference could be with Russia. “The military leaders have signaled that under new management Pakistan will be more critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Mumford says.
Meanwhile, in the streets, Khan has mobilized supporters and claimed to have garnered the biggest protest crowds in Pakistan ever. Sound familiar?
Protests aimed at delegitimizing the Sharif government are likely to continue. “[Khan] stayed on the streets for months [in 2013 to protest election results],” says Ayesha Jalal, a history professor at Tufts University. She foresees the same tactics now, and both she and Mumford fear that greater unrest looms.
Pundits believe Sharif will push for electoral reforms to ensure a free and fair election can be held within the next 12 to 18 months in a bid to gain a fresh mandate for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Party to rule alone. Currently, it’s the Pakistan People’s Party and the PLM-N that have a majority in parliament, along with dissidents from Khan’s PTI who may vote for Sharif. Holding on until an election can be held won’t be easy for Sharif.
Whether his government can function remains a question mark, says Jalal. While he may cobble together a broad-based coalition government, “I don’t think it’s going to be a very long-lived government,” she says.
Can Khan give Sharif a run for his money? He’ll certainly try in the next election.
Street protests seem to favor Khan at the moment, and he’s very popular on social media. “But I’m not sure that translates into broad-based popularity for Khan in the country. Sharif is popular in certain areas, including in Punjab,” says Mumford. Besides, the PML-N can also whip up support in the streets too. Protests don’t amount to votes, and Jalal, for one, believes Khan is “in for a real challenge in Punjab.”
However, the biggest concern, she adds, is that unrest and greater economic instability may force the military’s hand. “The thing that worries us all in Pakistan is a military takeover,” she says.
To avoid popular unrest and stay in power, Sharif, who currently has the military’s backing and its pledge to remain neutral in any upcoming election, must tackle the fiscal crisis and maintain public peace.
It won’t be an easy job. Shah, for one, says he “wouldn’t wish [his] enemy to have to govern Pakistan right now.”