The relationship between the development of the monsoon circulation and the equatorial heat sources is studied.
He et al. (1987) showed that two transitions during the early stage of the monsoon of 1979, which correspond to the onset of monsoons over South-East Asia and India respectively, are characterized by the movements of the upper anticyclone over South Asia. The main purpose of our paper is to investigate what determines the behavior of the anticyclone.
Gill (1980) with his linear shallow water equation model suggests that the monsoon circulation, including the upper anticyclone over South Asia, could be regarded as the Rossby wave response to the heating over the equatorial region. The intensified equatorial heating can generate the Rossby mode and intensify the anticyclone over South Asia.
The eastward-moving mode with a 40 day period is clearly seen in the early summer of 1986 as well as in the season of 1979. Due to this mode, the moist convection over the Western Pacific and the maritime continents changes its intensity periodically. When the moist convection becomes active, the upper anticyclone over the South Asia is rapidly intensified. The behavior of the upper anticyclone in 1986 is similar to that in 1979.
In order to confirm the relationship between the upper anticyclone and the equatorial heating, we perform prediction experiments, in which we can control the convective heating over the equatorial region, for two transition periods in 1986 using our nonlinear forecast model with full physics. The heat source, which is given over the domain from 30°S to 30°N and 90°E to 170°W, is estimated from the cloud top temperature measured by the GMS (Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite). In these experiments, we can make sure that the equatorial heat source, away from the monsoon region, plays an important role in generating the anticyclone over South Asia at 200mb.
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