ACLED

🌍Where are the world’s most vulnerable conflict zones? What crises could evolve in 2025? 📅 Find out with the launch of the #ACLED Global Conflict Index & 2025 Watchlist on 12 December! ▪️ The Conflict Index ranks the top 50 countries and territories by conflict risk, assessing levels of deadliness, civilian danger, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation. It highlights where conflict is most widespread and deadliest. ▪️ The Watchlist identifies 10 critical crisis areas likely to evolve in 2025, offering insights into the world’s most complex and dynamic conflict landscapes. Stay tuned and learn more about these essential pair of resources: https://lnkd.in/eM7V47cU 

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Update | 26 November - 2 December 2024 Violence between the IDF and Hezbollah declined sharply last week following the 27 November ceasefire. #ACLED recorded 265 violent events—a 64% drop compared to the previous week—with most incidents (257) occurring in Lebanon and 8 in Israel and the occupied territories. Fatalities also fell significantly, dropping by 65% to 93 deaths, all reported in Lebanon. While the decrease offers a momentary reprieve, tensions remain high. Nearly 1.7 million people in Lebanon—32% of the population—are still exposed to the conflict’s impacts. Explore ACLED’s latest infographic for a detailed breakdown: https://lnkd.in/eT6diDDw

Middle East Regional Overview: November 2024 November brought significant developments across key conflict zones. In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes dropped by 11% and fatalities declined by 25%, but expanded ground operations in North Gaza intensified clashes with Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire after 14 months of fighting, though fragile calm persists along the Lebanon-Israel border. In Syria, rebel factions launched a large-scale offensive, capturing Aleppo for the first time since 2016 and reshaping the balance of power in northern Syria. Get the full insights in our latest analysis: https://lnkd.in/eb7JVfPw

Since August 2022, President Gustavo Petro’s 'Total Peace' policy has aimed to resolve Colombia’s decades-long conflict by enforcing the 2016 peace accords and engaging armed groups in dialogue. While the strategy has seen progress, including a yearlong ELN ceasefire, myths about its scope persist, and key challenges remain: ▪️ ELN: A yearlong ceasefire (Aug 2023–Aug 2024) marked a milestone, but leadership splits have fueled resumed attacks, including on a military base in Arauca. ▪️EMC: Internal divisions sparked renewed violence in critical regions, despite some factions remaining in talks. ▪️Gulf Clan: Clashes with security forces fell by half under Petro, but formal negotiations are yet to begin. 🎥 Laura Bonilla unpacked these dynamics in our latest webinar. Watch the full discussion. Watch the full discussion: https://lnkd.in/gP-8i4yW

Ethiopia at a glance | 23 - 29 Nov 2024 In the South West Ethiopia Peoples region, a rare attack by Majangir ethnic militias killed at least 20 civilians, including a kebele administrator, disrupting one of Ethiopia’s more peaceful areas. Federal police have since taken control of the region to prevent further violence. In Oromia, the regional government signed a peace deal with a splinter faction of the OLA/OLF-Shane. However, the main OLA/OLF-Shane leadership dismissed the agreement, and violence continues, with civilians targeted in ongoing violence. Explore ACLED’s latest weekly analysis for insights into these events: https://lnkd.in/eyN_jSTZ

Since President Gustavo Petro took office, his openness to reducing military pressure on Colombia’s armed groups has enabled their territorial expansion and intensified competition. These groups are leveraging illicit economies, including coca cultivation, gold mining, and smuggling, to strengthen their finances and negotiating positions with the government. This expansion has fueled heightened rivalries. During Petro’s administration, #ACLED recorded around 600 clashes between armed groups—a 40% increase compared to the 27 months prior. These clashes increasingly reflect localized subregional dynamics, with all major armed groups clashing with one another in some capacity. 🎥 ACLED's Associate Analysis Coordinator, Tiziano Breda, breaks down these trends and their implications in our latest webinar. Catch the full conversation: https://lnkd.in/gP-8i4yW

📊 Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Update | 23 - 29 November 2024 #ACLED recorded 544 violent events between the IDF and Hezbollah, including 518 in Lebanon and 26 in Israel and the occupied territories. Fatalities increased by 10% to 219 deaths—all in Lebanon. As a ceasefire took effect on 27 November, most violence and fatalities occurred earlier in the week, exposing 41% of Lebanon’s population to conflict. These figures highlight the ongoing risks to civilians and the fragility of the agreement. Explore ACLED’s latest data on this evolving conflict: https://lnkd.in/eT6diDDw

🌍 Which conflicts will shape 2025? ACLED’s Global Conflict Index & 2025 Watchlist launch on 12 December, revealing: ▪️ The top 50 countries and territories facing the highest conflict risk based on deadliness, civilian danger, diffusion, and armed group fragmentation. ▪️ 10 dynamic crisis areas poised for change next year. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/eM7V47cU

#Ukraine Conflict Update: 23 – 29 November 2024 Russian forces intensified their campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread disruptions: ▪️ Airstrikes on 26 and 28 November hit western and central regions, including Ternopil, Lviv, Volyn, and Khmelnytskyi, cutting power to households and facilities. ▪️Emergency outages, some lasting up to 12 hours, were introduced nationwide. ▪️34 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes were recorded, with Ukrainian forces intercepting at least 38 additional strikes. Civilian casualties also remain high, with at least 19 killed, nearly half in the Kherson region. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reiterated warnings about the danger posed by attacks on infrastructure near nuclear power plants. For full insights into these developments, read the complete report: https://lnkd.in/dMw7xYHe 

Since the landmark 2016 peace agreement, Colombia’s conflict has fundamentally shifted. The demobilization of the FARC insurgency marked the end of a hierarchical movement aiming to overthrow the government. Today, a fragmented collection of armed and criminal groups dominates the landscape, prioritizing territorial control to access illicit economies rather than confronting state forces. This shift has fueled surging clashes between rivals and increased violence against civilians, with 2023 recording the highest levels of inter-group violence since 2018. #ACLED data shows a 40% rise in violence between armed groups during the first 27 months of President Petro’s administration. 🎥 Watch Elizabeth Dickinson, Colombia Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, unpack these dynamics in our latest webinar. Catch the full conversation: https://lnkd.in/gP-8i4yW