When you compare "hot" startup themes with which successful companies are *actually* being created at the time, they rarely match up.
Check out the graphic here.
This was inspired by a conversation we had at the Founder Collective offices earlier this month, about being contrarian in venture and not chasing heat.
Not all of the data here is perfect. The themes stem from research and memory, and the companies stem from what I could find on PitchBook and Crunchbase. FC has a more extensive (and prettier!) graphic they may share at some point. But the concepts here are directionally right, and the table gets the point across: the biggest companies were often not the hot Seed round or flavor of the month.
A good time to be investing in AI would’ve been a few years back, when the foundation model and infra layers were taking shape. See: OpenAI, Scale AI, Anthropic in the graphic. (The application layer, though, has a lag effect, so *now* may be the right time.)
When everyone was talking about “The Future of Work” in 2020, meanwhile, it would’ve helped to invest in Canva and Notion five years prior.
And defense tech is all the rage now, but most people were focused on crypto and DTC brands when Anduril Industries was being born back in 2017.
And so on and so on. There's a lag effect to hype.
So what should we paying attention to now? A good question to ask is: what will be the hot theme in three, four, five, years—a theme that few people are looking at today?
This week's Digital Native attempts to answer those questions. We talk about broad sectors (e.g., healthcare, consumer) and we talk about more specific spaces (e.g., psychedelics, longevity, gaming).
I'm sure I'm missing (many) overlooked themes, so curious what others think the under-the-radar themes are—things that we'll all be talking about as "hot" spaces in 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Full Digital Native piece here and shoutout to FC for inspiring this — https://lnkd.in/ecfV2sQR