World Steel Dynamics

WSD is launching the Free Trial for our USA Steel Dynamics Service on March 4th. The free trial includes: Bi-Monthly Forecasting and Analysis Reports; Bi-Weekly Industry News; and Bi-Monthly steel product pricing. To register for your free trial, https://lnkd.in/ezXaHYd8

Strong raw material prices driven by short-term factors, likely to put pressure on steel prices in June-August: • China's January-February steel output remains strong amid low long product inventories and “ok” steelmaking margins, ensuring strong iron ore demand. • Market sentiment in China worsened sharply in January, reflected in the falling Steel PMI (-4.2 points in January to 43.3 points). • Iron ore supplies to China plummeted in early February due to weather-related disruption in Australia. Total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil as of 17th February dropped by 8.8 mln tons to 17.9 mln tons week on week. • Strong demand and tight supply supported iron ore prices at $108/t for 62% Fe fines. As iron ore supply improves come March and iron and steel output declines seasonally come June, we can expect iron ore prices to fall in June-August. • The international coal market remains weak, with high-grade coal from Australia quoted at $189/t FOB. • Scrap prices have risen to $360 CFR Turkiye, amid higher offers from US scrap suppliers. Turkish steelmakers can afford expensive scrap assuming growth of steel prices in the EU.  This, in turn, creates arbitrage opportunity for higher Turkish imports of semis from China, South-East Asia, and CIS, which should balance-out higher scrap prices.   Sign up for a free trial to see why WSD expects prices could rise to €640 by the end of Q1 ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Demand remains weak, improved expectations could signal positive changes come late Q2: • Aggregated activity in steel consuming industries in the EU declined 1.6% y/y in December, after two months of stability.  The automotive sector showed the worst performance; however, we view this as a short-term dynamic. • Economic sentiment in the Eurozone has improved despite Trump's aggressive tariff policies.  Expected retaliatory measures should support European industry and strategic programs designed to maintain the competitiveness of the EU economy. Efforts to establish peace in Ukraine may be perceived positively. • ZEW Business expectations index in the Eurozone in February added 6.2 points and amounted to 24.2 points - well above the average of 12.0 points. As such, European business expectations are largely “normal.”  Improvement could signal possible strengthening of demand in Q2. • ZEW Current Economic situation index in the Eurozone grew by 8.5 points to 45.3 points.  This could boost near-term steel orders in February prior to the peak season in March-April. • Sentiment in the German construction sector surged 14.0 points to 26.0 points – the most since pre-Covid (Feb-2020), according to the ZEW survey.   Sign up for a free trial to see why WSD expects prices could rise to €640 by the end of Q1 ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

World Steel Dynamics recently published a series of questions and answers to President Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.   WSD will share the questions, answers and WSD viewpoint over the next few days. Check back on March 4th for our nextquestion and answer.   Question: What’s the impact on the USA’s steel mills’ profits when a 25% extra tariff is placed on a good portion of the steel entering the United States? Answer: “A likely surge in the USA steel mills’ profits.” Already, the steel sheet-producing mills are benefitting from the announced tariffs, with hot-rolled band now priced at about $780-800 per net ton in some cases, up from $700-720 per net ton only a few weeks ago. In fact, the USA hot-rolled band price could rise temporarily to $850-950 per net ton, or $1,000+ per metric tonne, by April. Currently, the spread between the hot-rolled band price and the marginal cost for the leading integrated and EAF-based mini-sheet mills well exceed $420 and $320 per metric tonne respectively.    WSD’s monthly World Cost Curve for January 2025 indicates that the median-cost USA steel mill had an operating cost of $584 per tonne and a marginal cost of $511 per metric tonne. (Note: In comparison, the figures for the median-cost global steel mill were $524 and $462 per tonne, respectively; while those for the median-cost Chinese steel mill were $510 and $456 per tonne, respectively.)    Source: WSD Reports and Analysis Service   Register today to receive WSD’s all the questions and answer and our analysis ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #steeltariffs #trumpsteeltariffs #steelprice #tariffs #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Outlook: • Flats imports may remain high until the end of the quarter when the new TRQ rules come into force in April.   However, imports may become more costly after quotas from those countries with attractive offers were filled. This could provide an opportunity for prices to gradually increase in the EU market. • The parameters of the EU TRQ revision are the primary uncertainty factor for April sales.  Q2 flats imports could fall by 25% q/q if 15% caps are introduced for an individual country within the “other countries” quota. • Provisional anti-dumping duties against HRC from India, Japan, Egypt and Vietnam may be adopted as early as April. We expect that the duty for India will not exceed 5-7%, as offers from India were much more expensive compared to suppliers from other countries; however, if a 25% import duty on steel from India is implemented this will lead to a halt in EU exports from the country.  A decision is expected within 6 months. • Import offers are becoming more expensive based on higher prices from Türkiye, which looks to be the main import source for the EU in Q2. • Relatively expensive iron ore is also driving up import prices. This will add an opportunity for European steelmakers to raise prices.   Sign up for a free trial to see why WSD expects prices could rise to €640 by the end of Q1 ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

USA HRC Spot Price ‘At Least’ $900/ton: Buy- and Sell-Side Market Players   Cleveland-Cliffs officially opens its April spot order book for hot-rolled coil (HRC) tomorrow (Wednesday, February 26) at $900 per ton, but in its letter to customers last Friday, there was a clear ‘if you can get it’ underlying message. In that same letter Cliffs’ Michael Hrosik, Senior VP Commercial, urged “clients who are interested in SPOT volumes to contact their Account Managers to discuss availability.” On its earnings call with analysts Tuesday morning, Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves said: “Our order book has picked up substantially over the past months and steel pricing is back on the rise. Less than a month ago, our lead times for hot-rolled steel were three weeks. As of today, they are seven weeks. Order book and lead times are our most important forward-looking indicators and they are both in their strongest position in nearly a year.” Cliffs has noted that market conditions for HRC in the US are “rapidly changing” and that’s something all market participants agree upon. Nucor once again increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC on Monday to $860 per ton. Its latest offer is up nearly 15% (+$110) since January 21. Other producers are said to be offering this week at “numbers that start with a nine,” according to a Midwest steel distributor. “Obviously, I’d book with Nucor, but yesterday’s price may be gone already,” said another buyer of admittedly “modest” tonnage. Meanwhile, HRC steel futures on the CME are all more than $900 per ton for all monthly contracts—including $950 for April. Source: WSD’s USA Steel Dynamics Service Sign up today for a free three-month trial to stay up to date on USA steel market trends, forecasts and Industry News, https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA #usasteelprice #hrsspotprice #clevelandcliffs #nucor #usasteeldemand #usasteeldynamics #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

World Steel Dynamics recently published a series of questions and answers to President Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.   WSD will share the questions, answers and WSD viewpoint over the next few days.  Check back on February 27 for our nextquestion and answer.   Question:  Assuming the current 25% duty remains in effect indefinitely on foreign steel products entering the United States, will this prevent a further rally of the world HRB price as products planned to be shipped to the United States are diverted to other markets?     Answer: “Highly likely.”   ➢ The world HRB price in the past month has fallen back to $470-490 per tonne from a brief high of $520-530 per tonne in mid-November of last year in the aftermath of China’s announcement it will stimulate the economy via the bailout of local government finances and other measures.  This rally has proved to be short-lived as Chinese domestic demand has failed to rise sufficiently to push-down steel exports from their astronomically high levels.   ➢ When including hot-rolled band and the steel products made from it – i.e., cold-rolled coil, galvanized coil, pre-painted sheet and tinplate, USA imports amounted to 26.3 million tonnes the last two years, on average.  This figure compares to global exports on the same basis of 220 million tonnes.  Hence, in this case, the USA market share was only about 11.9% - a seemingly minor amount.   ➢ However, when considering the share that sheet exports to the USA represent for the EU, Brazil, S. Korea, Japan and others, the figures are considerably more significant:   ➢ USA-bound sheet and related product (pipe/tube, etc.) exports from Brazil amounted to 3.8 million tonnes, or 31% of Brazil’s total flat and semis exports   ➢ USA-bound sheet exports from the EU amounted to 3.76 million tonnes, or 22% of the total EU exports (excluding semis)   ➢ USA-bound sheet and related product (pipe/tube, etc.) exports from S. Korea amounted to 2.5 million tonnes, or 11% of S. Korean total exports of flats and semis   ➢ USA-bound sheet and related product (pipe/tube, etc.) exports from Japan amounted to 0.9 million tonnes, or 2.9% of the total   Source:  WSD Reports and Analysis Service   Register today to receive WSD’s all the questions and answer and our analysis ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #steeltariffs #trumpsteeltariffs #steelprice #tariffs #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

February highlights: • EU flats imports fell by 11% y/y and by 11% q/q from 1stJanuary through 18th February (48 days of quota period). HRC imports are down 42% y/y and 20% q/q. • Imports decelerated in the first half of February. Flats imports in 1-17 February amounted to 412k tons, 45% lower y/y. There is a lack of competitive offers after full quota utilization from the most popular sources. However, the volumes imported in January give buyers the opportunity to resist price increases. • Active import of HRC from Türkiye in January, when 134k tons were delivered, has given way to stagnation. In February, only 6k tons were imported from Türkiye.  At this pace, by the end of the quarter 450k tons of the country’s quota would be unused. The remaining volumes can be used in March, as Turkish steelmakers reduced their offers in mid-January. • Indonesia has shown interest in HRC exports to the EU, offering a discount of €60/t for March delivery. We are likely to see imports from South-East Asian countries as local prices weaken under the influence of China in mid-February, while EU prices are expected to rise. Currently HRC from South-East Asia is offered with €40/t discounts at €560/t CIF.   Sign up for a free trial to see why WSD expects prices could rise to €640 by the end of Q1 ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

Market conditions for hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the US are “rapidly changing” according to Cleveland-Cliffs, which has set a spot price of $900 per ton for April, starting next Wednesday, February 26. In a letter to customers Friday, Cliffs’ Michael Hrosik, Senior VP Commercial, wrote that the company “concluded our March contract booking window on February 19th. Due to the rapidly changing market conditions, we will open our April HR contract book on Monday February 24th.” Hrosik added: “Once our contract clients book April volumes we will open our April Spot HR book on February 26th. Cliffs HR Market Price for April will be $900 / ton.” He urged “clients who are interested in SPOT volumes to contact their Account Managers to discuss availability.” #SteelIndustry #SteelPrices #USASteel #SteelSupply #SteelDemand

WSD expects that in the coming weeks HRC prices could reach $900/ton and that scrap prices could also increase by an additional $30-50/lt for March settlements.    Although improved from a near-term low of $265/ton in July, March metal margins would top out at $440 per ton based on WSD’s forecast, significantly below the prior peak of $600/ton in January 2024.    Given soft demand prospects in the U.S. and weak global market conditions, pricing upside may be limited beyond a brief HRC pricing peak of $925-950 per ton in by early-April.    Source: WSD’s USA Steel Dynamics Service   Sign up today for a free three-month trial to stay up to date on USA steel market trends, forecasts and Industry News ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #usasteeloutlook #usasteelmarket #usasteelprice #usasteelforecast #wsd #worldsteeldynamics #usasteeldynamics